Cocktail Investing

Download Episode This week brings us to the midpoint of the September quarter, and there is quite a bit going on despite it being the dog days of summer. From contagion concerns spilling over from Turkey to escalating tariffs between the US and China, more signs of inflation heating up even as more economic data of late has missed expectations, it's not the ho-hum end of summer many had been hoping for. That's why we called in long-time friend Keith Bliss of DriveWealth for a conversation on all of those things as well as where he sees the markets heading by year end. You've probably listened to Keith on CNBC, Fox Business, Yahoo! Finance and other financial media. In our conversation, not only does Keith bring the experience and wit of an NYSE floor trader, but the deep thought and perspective that makes him a sought-after market commentator. We cover the three "T-s" that are driving the market – Turkey, Tariffs and Trump – and much more in this episode of the podcast. There's a quite a bit to cover, and we do it with some laughs mixed in along the way. Resources for this podcast:

• Keith Bliss @KBGunner1
• DriveWealth - https://drivewealth.com
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

A chat with Michael Mell, Senior Director, Custom Indices at S&P Dow Jones Industries to discuss the explosion in passive investing. Download Episode Recently Tematica Investing's Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, had the opportunity to chat with Michael Mell, Senior Director, Custom Indices at S&P Dow Jones Industries to discuss the explosion in passive investing that is occurring given consumers adopting exchange traded funds (ETFs) in their portfolios. Underneath the hood of a passive ETF is an index that it tracks that defines its investment strategy and style. The explosion in passive investing and ETFs have given rise to a plethora of custom indices, hence Chris's conversation with Michael about the ins and out of passive investing and indexing. Along the way, he explains the role of S&P Dow Jones Custom Indices, including how he and Chris worked together to bring the NJCU New Jersey 50 Index (^NJCUPR) to life. Resources for this podcast:

• Michael Mell - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mmell/
• S&P Dow Jones Indices - https://us.spindices.com
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

What the coming 5G technology means for the Connected Car, Connected Home and the Internet of Things Download Episode On this week's episode of Cocktail Investing we are digging deep into the podcast archives. While some may think it's because we're entering one of the slowest times of the year, the reality is mobile infrastructure company Nokia just inked the largest known 5G contract with T-Mobile, which in our view means 5G is poised to become a reality over the coming quarters. That access technology will not only improve mobile data speeds and network capacity, but it will also give rise to a number of new disruptions across the Connected Home, Connected Car and the Internet of Things. A great primer conversation was had a while back with James Nolan, who was then Executive Vice President, Research and Development at InterDigital (IDCC) and is now Executive Vice President, IoT Solutions. We're looking to get Jim back on the podcast for a fresh look at the IoT in the coming weeks but thought the Nokia and 5G news this was a great excuse to revisit this great conversation. Enjoy! Resources for this podcast:

• James Nolan, InterDigital - https://www.interdigital.com/leadership/james-j-nolan
• InterDigital - https://www.interdigital.com
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report:https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Download Episode With more headlines these days about the potential therapeutic uses of Schedule 1 substances, Tematica's mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace talk with William Kelly, Partner at AgriCascadia about the evolving cannabis industry on this week's podcast. Bill has an incredible track record of being on the cutting edge of major technology and social changes as the co-founder of Sapient Health Network (previously WebMD), Learning.com and ReelDx. In the United States today, 30 states plus the District of Columbia allow medical or recreational cannabis that contains the psychoactive ingredient THC. Over 65% of voters support legalization while over 60% of Americans already live in a state in which it has already been legalized. Globally, the legal cannabis industry is expected to reach $57 billion by 2027, according to Arcview Market Research. The largest group of cannabis buyers is expected to be in North America, rising from $9.2 billion in 2017 to $47.3 billion in 10 years. Outside of the U.S. is expected to grow much faster, rising from $52 million in 2017 to $2.5 billion by 2027. You will find more infographics at Statista Today, domestically this is a very complex market given that it is still illegal at the federal level, which means cannabis cannot be grown in one state and sold in another, limiting the ability to achieve any meaningful economies of scale. Banking is also exceedingly complex for those involved in the sector as any bank that provides services to a company that is legally selling cannabis would be in violation of a myriad of federal laws and regulations. For those interested in this industry that in its legalized form is still in its infancy, this is one that will give you the munchies for more. Resources for this podcast:

• AgriCascadia: http://www.agricascadia.com
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Before the 2Q 2018 earnings season kicks into high gear this week, Tematica mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace talked about one of the largest self-created holidays known to man – Amazon's Prime Day — as well as the competitive response that has emerged during this seasonally slow time of the year for retailers. On the global stage, Lenore takes us through the geo-political and trade happenings over the last few weeks and explains how this along with fresh data pointing to a global slowdown has ratcheted up uncertainty risk even as the US stock market continues to march higher.

Against that backdrop, Chris shares his concerns for the upcoming earnings season and how earnings from truck logistics company JB Hunt and slowing loan volume growth at JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and PNC suggest a step down in the speed of the domestic economy is likely in the current quarter. It's all about earnings reality matching up with earnings expectations, and if reality falls short it likely means a turbulent summer for stocks.

Companies mentioned on this podcast

• Amazon (AMZN)
• Citigroup (C)
• Netflix (NFLX)
• JB Hunt (JBHT)
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
• Kohl's (KSS)
• PNC (PNC)
• Target (TGT)
• Walmart (WMT)
• Wells Fargo (WFC)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace – @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins – @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Spinning out of the mounting trade and tariff talk over the last few months, Tematica's mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace talk with Teucrium Trading's Sal Gilbertie on this week's podcast. Not only is Sal a died in the wool farmer, but he's also one of the management team behind Teucrium's agricultural commodity-focused ETFs. That makes the conversation around corn, wheat and soybeans — building block staples for both proteins and a wide array of products that are being increasingly consumed as part of our New Middle Classinvesting theme — one to listen to. Not only are those core ag commodities currently trading below their cost of production, something that historically doesn't last very long, but because China's arable land, which represents 10% of the total arable land in the world, supports over 20% of the world's population, odds are these ag related tariffs won't last for a prolonged period. As Sal tells Lenore and Chris, it's an interesting time for patient investors and this asset class.

Resources for this podcast:

• Teucrium Trading
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• TematicaResearch – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report:https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

On this week's podcast, Tematica's mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace explain what investors should be prepared for as we move into the 2Q 2018 earnings season. While the 2018 narrative started with tax reform, during the 2Q 2018 wore on it became increasingly focused on trade as tariff talk escalated among the US, China, European Union, Mexico and Canada. With company's ranging from Harley Davidson to General Motors, Toyota and BMW all crying uncle from the potential tariff impact, we could be in for a very different earnings season than many thought back in January.

Current expectations have the S&P 500 group of companies delivering EPS growth between 20%-22% year over year in the back half of 2018. As Lenore and Chris point out, however, the growing number of headwinds from trade and tariffs to slowing growth, higher interest rates and the rebound in the dollar could result in more conservative guidance than the market is expecting. What could it mean if that expected EPS growth in the second half if more like 15%... well, you'll just have to listen to the episode to find out.

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• TematicaResearch – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report:https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

As the narrative of the synchronized global economy is weakening and the U.S. is just starting to feel the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, we spoke with Jesse Felder of the Felder Report to discuss his view of the US and global economy and how he sees the global liquidity tide turning.

In keeping with our Aging of the Population investing theme, Jesse walks us through the impact of the Boomer generation on the economy and the markets as they have moved through various life stages. He shares with us his views on the impact of the record levels of debt in the world and the unique generational challenges facing Millennials and how these are going to impact the economy.

Jesse also shares with us where he looks for data that can give him insight into how the economy and the markets are evolving, and how he turns the data into meaningful signals. As we discuss his take on where we are in the credit cycle, he shares with us what typically happens during a liquidity pullback and when the dollar weakens or strengthens. We discuss how historically the way out of debt has traditionally been inflation and what that could mean this time around for investors.

Join us for a level of insight that you won't find in the mainstream financial media.

Resources for this podcast:

• Jesse Felder @JessieFelder
• The Felder Report
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

While many are focused on the escalating trade tariffs between the US and China, let's remember the eurozone and Canada are poised to implement tariffs as well. Included among Canada's list of affected products is coffee… yes that all important, lifeblood beverage for team Tematica and millions of others. As the World Economic Forum recently pointed out some two billion cups of coffee are consumed every day, and we're more than thrilled to learn that three to four cups per day, which is considered moderate, is likely to do more benefit than harm to our health. Good news for the lifespans of team Tematica!

Yet, we are seeing declining same-store volumes at Starbucks (SBUX), the company that reinvented the coffee experience, but also a new wave of coffee beverages, including one Tematica's Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, stumbled upon while in San Antonio a few weeks back – Elixir Specialty Coffee. With a tagline of "Looks like whiskey, feels like tea, made from coffee, and unlike anything you've tasted before" team Tematica had to investigate. The team can confirm it truly is utterly delicious and unlike anything they've ever had before.

That led to today's special guest on the podcast, Lee Safar, founder of Elixir Specialty Coffee. During the podcast, Lenore Hawkins, Tematica's Chief Macro Strategist, and Chris talk with Lee about the coffee market, how it is moving into its third wave, and while Starbucks has been successful, it's the artisan coffee market that will be the next driver. We see companies like Elixir returning the coffee market back to its Affordable Luxury and Guilty Pleasure thematic status as the allure and luster of what was Starbucks a few years ago is now an everyday item. Unlike other companies that are going for the hockey stick growth curve, Elixir is taking a more long-term strategic approach, but Lee does share the next step in the company's journey and all we can say is look out corporate coffee subscription services.

As an added bonus, Lee is giving Cocktail Investing listeners an opportunity to try the company's new monthly corporate coffee subscription program with a one-time, 10% discount – all you need do is use the discount count "Tematica" at check out.

Resources for this podcast:

• Elixir Specialty Coffee
• Elixir Specialty Coffee Instagram
• Lee Safar - @LeeSafar
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• TematicaResearch – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report:https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

With trade and tariffs once again making headlines ahead of the G7 meeting and next week's US-North Korea summit, as well as the Fed's upcoming June FOMC meeting, on this week's podcast Tematica's mixologists talk with Mark Hamrick, Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst at Bankrate.comand President of the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW).

While we learn about Mark's background and eventually that his preferred cocktail is a Manhattan (with rye), Lenore and Chris first talk with him about the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell and then segue onto Mark's view of the economy and his expectations around interest rate hikes in coming year. Tematica's Cash-Strapped Consumer investing theme was reinforced by several of the data points that Mark shares, as well as what will likely play out if the Fed does indeed boost rates as expected.

During the conversation, the topic of financial literacy was discussed and there's no sugar coating it, the vast majority of folks in the US are financially illiterate. That's part of Bankrate's mission – to help boost their financial education. We here at Tematic applaud that effort and we enjoy all the data and survey findings published by Bankrate as well.

Join us for a revealing discussion on what most miss if they only focus on the headlines as the underlying data sometimes can directly contradict the prevailing narrative of the day. This disconnect is a danger for investors that can be turned into an opportunity for those who dig a bit deeper. Listen in to hear how and why.

Resources for this podcast:

• Mark Hamrick @Hamrickisms
• SABEW @SABEW
• Bankrate – Bankrate.com

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• TematicaResearch – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report:https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting