Cocktail Investing

Cocktail Investing

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Cocktail Investing episodes

  • Ep 83: Using Artificial Intelligence and Investor Sentiment to Improve Returns

    On this week's podcast, we are joined once again by Jamie Wise, founder of Buzz Indices, a Toronto-based hedge fund that has also created the index which powers the BUZZ US Sentiment Leaders ETF (BUZ).

    That index is leveraging artificial intelligence to collect social sentiment around stocks and translating that into a fund portfolio, that's a mouthful! Jaime breaks it down for us and walks us through how using investor sentiment and not brand perception, gives insight into which companies may be best poised for longer-term stock price appreciation. We talk through the difference between sentiment versus momentum investing and why there is in practice little overlap between the BUZ ETF and most momentum ETFs.

    Given the recent dramatic moves in the market, we asked Jaime about what insight his team can share given the massive amounts of data they crunch concerning just how investors feel about stocks. His answers just may surprise you. He shares with us which sectors they've seen fall in and out of favor and some additional insight concerning sentiment on a few specific stocks that you won't want to miss.

    Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

    And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

    Resources for this podcast:

    • Buss Indexes http://buzzindexes.com/
    • BuzzIndexes - @BUZZIndexes
    • Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
    • Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
    • Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
    • Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

    47 min
  • Ep 82: A Thematic Review of the September Retail Sales Report

    On this week's podcast, Tematica's mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, take a thematic deep dive on the September Retail Sales Report. With the consumer directly or indirectly accounting for nearly two-thirds of the domestic economy and the average consumer spending 31% of his or her paycheck on retails goods, this monthly report is one worth monitoring closely. As with any economic data point, putting it into context provides a clearer perspective and that means examining more than just the September figures.

    In doing just that thematically, while headline September Retail Sales missed expectations, digging into the meat of the report uncovered a number of confirming data points for several of our investing themes – Digital Lifestyle, Middle-Class Squeeze, and Living the Life among others – and companies that we have identified as Thematic Leaders. Comparing and contrasting the different sub-categories with third party data and company comments shared thus far during the September quarter earnings season offer an additional perspective, including why the sharp year over year pick up in restaurant sales paired with food price deflation should be a positive for restaurant stocks.

    As we discuss on the podcast, those same restaurant stocks are also benefitting from certain aspects of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme. We also share some data that keeps us bullish on Amazon and why the company has much more room to run even as it knocks the stuffing hard out of one retail sales category in particular.

    Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

    And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

    Resources for this podcast:

    • Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
    • Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
    • Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
    • Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting
    37 min
  • Shifts in Investor Sentiment Lead to Big Pain in the Markets

    On this week's podcast Tematica Research's®mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, tackle the recent shifts in investor sentiment that led to some big pain this week in the US stock market. They trace the impetus for the recent moves back to the data and comments they shared several weeks ago with listeners of the podcast and in their Tematica Research writings.

    Simply put there has been a melt up in investor worries as a confluence of concerns have come to the forefront of the investing conversation:

    • Signs of a slowing US economy
    • Rising interest rates
    • Growing signs of inflation that call into question the Fed's velocity of rate hikes
    • More pain at the gas pump
    • Potentially even more escalation in tariffs between the US and China;
    • Rising Italy-Eurozone tensions
    • What all this may mean for both consumer and corporate borrowings and subsequent spending

    These are the same concerns that led to the addition of call option short position in an inverse S&P 500 ETF in Tematica Options+ that closed last night up more than 300%.

    Despite the painful mid-week drop in the market, we continue to think those factors will result in a September quarter earnings season that is very different from the recent few that proceeded it. We strongly suspect these factors will weigh on corporate outlooks leaving investors to either question how the S&P 500 will deliver on its expected EPS growth rate in the December quarter or take out the hatchet and make some revisions. Both Lenore and Chris think the next few weeks could warrant wearing your five-point harness.

    And then there is all that is going on in Italy and how it's not only spooking the markets and seriously complicating the European Central Bank's plans to bring its quantitative easing program to an end by the close of the year, but also sounding the alarm bells for its citizens. Trade with China and Italy, two things we'll be watching into 2019.

    Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

    Resources for this podcast:

    • Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
    • Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
    • Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
    • Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting
    47 min
  • Ep 80: Why Plummeting Coffee Bean Prices Today Could Lead to a More Expensive Cup of Joe Down the Road

    On this week's podcast, we are joined once again by Lee Safar, Chief Ship Steerer of Elixir Specialty Coffee this time to talk the sharp drop of coffee prices – what it means today and for the coming 12-24 months.

    Because of the current bumper coffee harvest, coffee prices are currently well below the cost of production. That may seem like a great thing for coffee drinkers and the companies behind them today, but with farmers swapping out coffee trees for other crops it will likely mean significantly higher coffee prices down the road when the current supply-demand dynamics don't just normalize but overshoot in the other direction. And then as Lee explains there is China and its rapidly increasing coffee consumption. While companies love to target China to drive their businesses, what happens when that demand exacerbates a pending global coffee shortage? You guessed it … prices always find an equilibrium, and this one could hurt coffee drinkers in the wallet down the road.

    Get a cup of coffee while you can, being one of the 500 billion cups consumed annually, and listen to what's likely ahead for you and the second most sought-after commodity on the plant behind oil.

    Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

    Resources for this podcast:

    • Elixir Specialty Coffee - https://www.elixirfy.me
    • Lee Safar - @LeeSafar
    • Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
    • Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
    • Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
    • Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting
    35 min
  • Ep 79: Some Frank Investing Talk with Frank Curzio

    This week we're joined by joined by long-time friend Frank Curzio of Curzio Researchand the host of the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast. Both of the Cocktail Investing Podcast mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, have been on Frank's podcast in recent weeks and on today's episode, we return the favor. It's one of those great conversations that pulls the tarp back on not just investing but some strategies that are used to uncover opportunities, especially ones that have been beaten up. We also talk about tariffs and trade, why Frank is optimistic about the market over the coming year and share some of our own mistakes along the way so listeners can benefit without the pain.

    While today he's at his own firm, Frank made his bones working for Jim Cramer and several prominent investment newsletter houses in which he examined thousands of stocks. It's the kind of perspective and insight that one gets from being in the business for a long time, and like a fine wine, Frank is getting better with age.

    46 min
  • Ep 78 - Lithium Ion Batteries, the Critical Component of the Digital Infrastructure

    On this week's podcast, Tematica's Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, is talking about one of the key enablers for mobility as part of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme – lithium ion batteries. That power technology is utilized in a wide array of consumer electronics, electric vehicles, power tools and energy storage applications, and is expected to reach $93.1 billion in size by 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 17%.

    Joining the conversation is Bill Davidson, a long-time friend of Chris' and the Chief Operating Officer of AMIONX, a safe battery technology company whose technology prevents batteries from being the source of explosion or fire without sacrificing the performance of the battery. Bill brings some context and perspective to the conversation, including the industry's growth drivers, potential hiccups and the importance of improving the safety of lithium ion battery technology lest we encounter another issue like the one we saw last year with Samsung's Galaxy Note 7 recall.

    Resources for this podcast:

    • AMIONX - http://www.amionxsafecore.com
    • Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
    • Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
    • Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
    • Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

    39 min
  • Poshmark, a Disruptive Innovator for Your Closet

    Tematica's resident mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, recently had the pleasure of chatting with Manish Chandra, Founder and CEO of Poshmark. While technically Poshmark is a digital marketplace where people from the United States can buy and sell new or used clothing, shoes and accessories, the reality is it's a community based social media platform that matches buyers and sellers of personal clothing. If that sounds like a company at the intersection of our Disruptive Innovators, Digital Lifestyle, Middle-Class Squeeze and Living the Life investing themes, we could not agree more. Moreover, Poshmark's metrics show an engaged and growing user base that spends 20-25 minutes a day in the Poshmark app, which they open 7-9x per day on average.

    Not only does Manish have his own closet on Poshmark, but he is a technology geek that is a firm believer in the process of creative destruction. As Chris likes to say, Manish and the Poshmark team are just getting started and have ample market opportunities ahead of them both in and out of the U.S. If you thought Poshmark was an eBay knockoff, you had better think again and listen this episode. Once you do, you might be monetizing your own closet… and don't be surprised if you see Lenore hunting down another pair of Jimmy Choo stilettos.

    We were amazed to hear that top seller stylists on Poshmark have been making over $1 million on the platform. Not sure you'll find things that fit your style? At any one point, there are over 75 million SKUs on the site. Last quarter alone the site added 500,000 new sellers and even more amazing, is that this community truly is a community wherein sellers spend roughly 50% of their time recommending other sellers! Not sure where to start? You could try out one of their parties, events ranging from "Girl's night out," to brand specific or "Evening parties." Those last ones can see 2 million items shared in a 2-hour party.

    Fashion not your thing? You still want to listen in as Manish is one of the most phenomenal CEO's we've had the pleasure of meeting. Any aspiring entrepreneur will want to take notes.

    Resources for this podcast:

    • Manish Chandra's Poshmark Closet https://poshmark.com/closet/manish
    • Poshmark
      • Website: https://poshmark.com
      • Twitter: https://twitter.com/Poshmarkapp?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
      • Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/poshmark/?hl=en
    • Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
    • Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
    • Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
    • Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

    49 min
  • Summer is a Wrap So What's Next?

    As the long, warm days of summer come to a close and with the Labor Day weekend right around the corner, our resident mixologists, Chris Versace (Tematica Research's Chief Investment Officer) and Lenore Hawkins (Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist) take a look at what to expect as we head into the last four months of the year. Our dynamic duo discusses what has surprised them in 2018 and where they think the opportunities and risks lie for the remainder of the year and into 2019 as they discuss the ongoing trade wars, potential new agreements with Mexico and Canada, the markets making new highs and the mixed economic data coming in.

    Companies mentioned on this podcast

    • Alibaba (BABA)
    • Amazon (AMZN)
    • Apple (AAPL)
    • Coca Cola (KO)
    • Netflix (NFLX)
    • PepsiCo Inc (PEP)
    • SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
    • Universal Display (OLED)
    • Walmart (WMT)

    Resources for this podcast:

    • Louis Federal Reserve Bank - Economic Research (FRED) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org
    • SodaStream to help Pepsico ride the Clean Living slipstream - https://www.tematicaresearch.com/sodastream-to-help-pepsico-ride-the-clean-living-slipstream/
    • Beer and Spirits company Constellation Brands invests big in cannabis 0 https://www.tematicaresearch.com/constellation-brands-invests-big-in-cannabis/
    • Starbucks taps kombucha to pivot from sugary drinks and recapture consumers - https://www.tematicaresearch.com/starbucks-taps-kombucha-to-pivot-from-sugary-drinks-and-recapture-consumers/
    • Coca-Cola: turning free water machine into a cash stream? - https://www.tematicaresearch.com/coca-cola-turning-free-water-machine-into-a-cash-stream/

    • Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
    • Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
    • TematicaResearch – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
    • Themes Report:https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

    49 min
  • Ep 75: Inside Index Baseball at the NYSE

    On this week's podcast, Chris Versace, Tematica' s Chief Investment Officer, spends some time with Mark Abssy who works in Product Development at NYSE Indices at ICE Data Services. Over the course of the last 18 months, Mark and the Tematica team have had an ongoing conversation, which is why when we wanted to talk "inside baseball" as to the history and development of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) and the underlying indices that power them we went to Mark. From explaining how ETPs and underlying indices may differ to how indices are monetized and how they have evolved over the last 20 years to some of their shortcomings, Mark and Chris cover it. Mark also describes NYSE's historical role in the indexing industry and how that has been changing since the 2012 acquisition by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

    1 hr 3 min
  • Failing Infrastructure Costs Dozens Their Lives in Italy
    Download Episode Successful investing requires distancing oneself from emotion and from political biases, letting the data do the talking while attempting to be as objective as possible in assessing the potential risks versus rewards. This week I am failing miserably at this. This week my second home since 2012, Genoa, Italy, made headlines around the world for the worst of all possible reasons. At least 39 people died because a bridge I have traveled across countless times crumbled. Many of those who were on the bridge fell 150 feet to their death and those below the bridge when it collapsed, I cannot even imagine what they experienced. When I think of what it will be like to see that pile of rubble when I return, I alternate between wanting to throw up and scream at the top of my lungs at those who I hold responsible. This should never have happened. The loss of life was thankfully less than it could have been given that a good portion of the city's residents had already fled the heat during the August holiday period. Today politicians in Italy are doing what politicians all over the world do after a tragedy, engaging in a public covering of their own backsides while angrily pronouncing that those at fault will be discovered and held accountable. The same old song as it were. Here is the situation as I know it, which I am sharing as it helps to understand the challenges with infrastructure investment, something that the U.S. is failing at as well. The Morandi bridge was completed in 1967 and along with much of the surrounding toll roads, (the route from the A10 onto the A26 and the first part of the A7) is operated by Autostrade per l'Italia which is 88% owned by Atlantia (ATASF:OTC), a company that also manages highways in India, Brazil, and Chile, airports in France and Italy, and jointly controls a Spanish toll-road operator. Atlantia is in turn effectively controlled by the Benetton family, the largest shareholder at over 30% of the outstanding shares through the SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) Sintonia. An oddity of the Italian markets is that often you will have a publicly traded company's traded shares represent only a non-controlling stake in the company, with the control remaining in the hands of one or more of the wealthier families. While the shares are publicly traded, investors have no real say in the public entity's governance. It turns out that the bridge's designer, Riccardo Morandi may have been a brilliant architect, but not so great of a civil engineer. This bridge has had problems from the beginning and has required much more maintenance expenditures than is typical. This is where things get ugly. For years and years many qualified engineers have been warning of the bridge's imminent collapse. It's operator, Autostrade per l'Italia, has proposed alternatives to reduce stress, meaning traffic, on what was known to be a faulty bridge. All efforts were to no avail. Enter the awkward coalition between the 5-Star Movement, (Movimento 5 Stelle) and Lega. Two political parties that joined forces to gain a controlling majority in Italy, but whose positions often are at extreme odds. Forza Italia, the Democrats and most importantly Lega have all been in favor of La Gronda. La Gronda is Genovese (Genoa's regional dialect) for eves, such as you would have on a house. La Gronda was a project that was to connect the port at Voltri directly to the A26. Voltri is the container terminal where those big metal containers you see go to/from ships to/from (mostly) trucks and then get onto the A7. The 5-Star Movement has been vehemently opposed to La Gronda, calling it "La favoletta," the big fairy tale, with a formal "No Gronda" campaign in 2013. La Gronda was one of the biggest conflicts between the two parties. Previously policy statements concerning Genoa (Genova in Italian) and La Gronda were on the 5-Star Movement's website. That was changed quickly immediately following the bridge's collapse, but thanks to the beauty of the internet being forever, archived versions of those pages can be found. One such copy can be viewed here. There is a lovely video of Beppe Grillo, (the founder of the 5-Star Movement) railing against La Gonda in 2009 on YouTube. The start of this video has a charming little Italian girl carrying one of the "No Gronda" flags. Pretty sure her parents aren't feeling so great these days. If you enjoy reading from irate Italians, I also recommend searching for #NoGronda on Twitter. Very few nations can do rage quite like Italy. So far Lega is wisely keeping quiet as 5-Star hangs themselves scrambles, yelling and screaming about how they were never really against La Gronda. I'm telling you, this stuff would make Pinocchio squirm. This week Atlantia (the owner of the operating company for the bridge) is handling the situation so poorly that I'm nearly speechless – not an easy task as anyone who knows me can attest. The press releases on the company's website as of August 16thought to be an utter embarrassment to the management team and the Benetton family and a business school case study in precisely what not to do when tragedy strikes. Alitalia shares fell 22% in Milan on Thursday, their worst-ever decline. The company has lost around $6.2 billion in market cap since the bridge collapsed. This is likely only going to make the recovery process longer and more painful. Italy, a nation with the eighth largest economy in the world, has had public spending account for around half of the nation's GDP over the past decade yet its infrastructure spending has been well below that of its neighbors. Take a look at a topographical map of Italy and one of France, then look at the infrastructure spending of the two. Argh! Italy is pretty much all mountains and valleys so roads are all about bridges and tunnels. France is a pancake in comparison yet they spend more on all those flat roads! Taking into account the percent of GDP that the government spends, clearly this isn't an issue of a government not having enough funds, the question has been where is it spending? You will find more infographics at Statista The challenge is that infrastructure is basically the IT department of government. Rarely does anyone from the C suite walk down to the IT department of a company to say, "Good job, no hackers were successful today and all our tech ran smoothly." Politicians get reelected by making people happy. Maintenance of existing bridges and roads doesn't make for great photo ops and is often met with resistance by the electorate – NoGronda! Think this kind of thing can't happen in the USA? Think again. In August 2007, the I-35W Mississippi River Bridge in Minneapolis collasped, killing 13 and injuring 45. A decade later, things haven't improved. You will find more infographics at Statista What happened in Italy, yes it did happen here and could happen again. You will find more infographics at Statista It isn't just our bridges that are endangering the nation. Our airports, dams, schools, sewer treatment facilities, energy grid, waterways, levees, ports, parks, roads, drinking water, and hazardous waste facilities are all in need of investment with the nation's infrastructure getting a D+ in 2017 from the American Society of Civil Engineers. Hopefully, the current administration and/or those in Congress will use this tragedy to focus on America's infrastructure needs. We've heard a lot of talk out of the current Administration about just this, and I hope this serves as a catalyst for the country. A weak infrastructure is a significant headwind to the economy while a modern and robust one becomes a tailwind. This is an area of great opportunity for those in D.C. to do what is necessary, for investors when we see this issue get the attention it deserves, which is the basis for our Rebuilding America index, and for Americans who would reap benefits across many aspects of our lives including less time wasted commuting to and from work or in air travel, less wear and tear on our cars, and lower prices for the things we buy thanks to reduced transportation costs. Personally, it would be really nice to be able to drive around my other home base in San Diego, California without regularly blowing tires and soaking my car seats with coffee thanks to the ubiquitous craterlike potholes.
    24 min

About Cocktail Investing

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Each week, in keeping with our thematic perspective here at Tematica, we're here to distil the key signals to watch when it comes to investing and the economy. If that sounds a little dry, we agree,…