CogitAsia

In this episode, we analyze the origin and impact of a Sino-American trade war. As the trading relationship between Washington and Beijing spirals into conflict and protectionism, we are joined by two CSIS experts, Matthew Goodman, Simon Chair in Political Economy, and William Reinsch, Scholl Chair in International Business, to discuss what a trade war actually is, the impact of President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs, the types of tools China and the U.S. can use in this fight, and potential constraints on escalation. Matt and Bill also explain where this leaves the multilateral institutions that govern trade and project the likelihood of miscalculation on either side. Then Dr. Scott Kennedy, director of the Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy at the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, bats cleanup to assess Section 301 penalties that President Trump has imposed, countermeasures from the Chinese leadership, and whether the U.S. and China are truly ready for a full-on trade conflict. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Ribka Gemilangsari. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean. To learn more, please see analysis from our experts: A Better Way to Challenge China on Trade | Foreign Affairs by Matthew Goodman & Ely Ratner here. Section 301, Tariffs, and Chinese Trade and Investment | CSIS by Stephanie Segal & William Reinsch here. Surviving March Madness in U.S.-China Trade Relations | CSIS by Scott Kennedy here. Is the U.S. Ready for a Trade War? | Yale Global by Scott Kennedy here. The Shifting Politics of Trade | CSIS by William Reinsch here. Finding the Right Off-ramp from the Trade War | CSIS by Claire Reade here. To read the details of President Trump’s announcements on U.S. trade policy see Section 232 here, Section 301 here.

In this podcast, we talk with Kaiser Kuo, longtime China technology watcher and practitioner, and co-host of the Sinica podcast. In an environment where Xi Jinping is president for life, understanding China’s approach to emerging technology, innovation, and the Chinese Communist Party’s censorship of new media is fundamental for tracking geopolitics in East Asia. As the former director for international communications for Baidu, a Chinese search engine giant, Kaiser is uniquely positioned to assess trends in China’s innovation ecosystem, Chinese discussions about the ethics of emerging technologies, and the differences between the tech space in the United States and China.     Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Ribka Gemalingsari. Written and Produced by Jeffrey Bean.     Learn more about China on the Sinica podcast via SupChina here.

In this podcast, we take a deep dive into the outcomes of the Chinese Communist Party’s 19Party Congress.  Now that the dust has settled following Xi Jinping’s resounding win, we turned to two leading China-watchers to analyze the implications for China’s economic planning, PLA reform, foreign policy, anti-corruption effort, and censorship. Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, assistant professor of security studies at Georgetown University, and Christopher Johnson, chair of the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, join us to help assess the takeaways across Chinese politics. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Ribka Gemilangsari. Written and Produced by Jeffrey Bean.     Read more from Dr. Oriana Mastro on China’s military reform and strategy here. Read Christopher Johnson’s analysis of the 19 Party Congress here.

In the 10 years since China’s first successful anti-satellite test, the vulnerability of essential U.S. space systems has been underscored and competition in outer space has resumed. How has the United States responded? What are the implications for strategy and deterrence in this new era? In this podcast, CSIS experts Todd Harrison and Dr. Zack Cooper along with Secure World Foundation’s Dr. Brian Weeden talk about the changes in the space domain since the end of the Cold War and China’s expanding capabilities, describe how the proliferation of space technology has impacted other countries in the Indo-Pacific, and assess the implications for international cooperation in space exploration. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Ribka Gemilangsari. Written and Produced by Jeffrey Bean. Read Todd Harrison and Zack Cooper’s new CSIS report: Escalation and Deterrence in the Second Space Age, here.  See Brian Weeden’s recent work on U.S. space systems and U.S.-China strategic relations in space: U.S.-China Strategic Relations in Space (report chapter w/ Xiao He), NBR here. The End of Sanctuary in Space, War is Boring here. Use Outer Space to Strengthen U.S.-China Ties (w/ Xiao He), War on the Rocks here.

In this episode we discuss the complicated political picture in Myanmar for Aung San Suu Kyi after 18 months in office and the humanitarian tragedy in Rakhine state. Former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar Derek Mitchell joins to dissect what is happening on the ground following his most recent visit to the country in late August. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Ribka Gemilangsari. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean. Review the recommendations of the recent Annan Commission on Rahkine:http://www.kofiannanfoundation.org/app/uploads/2017/08/FinalReport_Eng.pdf    Listen to our previous podcast on Myanmar’s efforts to the face the future: https://www.cogitasia.com/cogitasia-podcast-myanmar-faces-the-future/

In this episode we discuss altering the U.S. policy approach to the South China Sea. Where does the South China Sea rank in the pecking order of U.S. policy interests? How much risk should America be willing to take over these disputed waters? These are just some of the key questions U.S. policymakers, diplomats, military personnel, and wonks have wrestled with over the last eight years. In this joint CogitAsia-AMTI podcast, you’ll hear from Dr. Ely Ratner, Maurice R. Greenberg senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Dr. Amy Searight, senior adviser and director of the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS. Listen as they discuss the background and assumptions animating a recent article Ely published in Foreign Affairs arguing that time is running out to stop China’s advances in the South China Sea. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Bryce Thompson. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean. Read Ely Ratner’s article in Foreign Affairs here. Watch or listen to the full seventh annual CSIS South China Sea Conference proceedings here.

In this episode we discuss maritime coercion in the Asia Pacific. Chinese actions in maritime Asia have led to a great deal of concern and commentary since disputes in the East and South China Seas have come to the forefront in recent years. CSIS’s Asia Program and International Security Program recently published a report that seeks to provide a blueprint for what the United States and its partners can actually do to deter China, Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia: The Theory and Practice of Greyzone Deterrence. Two of the co-authors of the study, Dr. Zack Cooper, Senior Fellow for Asian Security with the CSIS Japan Chair, and Mr. John Schaus, Fellow in the CSIS International Security Program, join us on the podcast to share their findings and look ahead to what the United States and its partners should do to ensure continued maritime security. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Ribka Gemilangsari and Bryce Thompson. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean. Read the .pdf of the full study, Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia, here. Watch the publication launch event here.

In this episode we discuss power and conflict in Southeast Asia with Michael Vatikiotis. While inter-state conflict has been minimal in recent years, countries around Southeast Asia face challenges in the form of unresolved insurgencies, simmering ethnic conflicts, and illiberal or ineffective governance. To help us analyze these trends, we are joined by Michael Vatikiotis, Asia Regional Director of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and a leading authority on governance and conflict resolution in Southeast Asia. Michael is also the author of a new book, titled Blood and Silk which analyzes power and conflict in modern Southeast Asia based on his personal experience as a conflict mediator and journalist. We discuss the renewed unrest in the southern Philippines, the challenge of religious conflict in Southeast Asia, authoritarianism in the region, and whether Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy can resolve the various low intensity armed conflicts affecting Myanmar. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Bryce Thompson. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean. Learn more about Michael’s book Blood and Silk here. Find it on Amazon here. Follow Michael on twitter @jagowriter.

In this podcast, a joint production of CSIS’s CogitAsia and the China Innovation Policy Series (CIPS), we explore how China’s tech innovation drive fits into the country’s wider economic picture. To gain a sense of whether the Chinese government’s initiatives to develop new technology are succeeding, Scott Kennedy, co-leader of the China Innovation Policy Series project at CSIS, joined China macroeconomist Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gravekel Dragonomics, an economic research consultancy based in Beijing, to discuss the issue. Kroeber emphasizes the largely positive results from China’s multi-pronged drive to promote high tech. He describes the rationale behind China’s technological innovation drive, highlights the success of leading Chinese Internet companies, and evaluates what options countries like the United States have to respond.     Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Liz Mayes. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean. . hereTo learn more, visit our China Innovation Policy Series site .here, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs To KnowListeners can see more about Arthur Kroeber’s book

In this episode we tackle Japan-South Korea collaboration on security issues. To gain insight on the complicated nature of Japan-South Korea security ties, we sat down with Dr. Junya Nishino, a 2017 CSIS Strategic Japan Fellow. Dr. Nishino discusses the evolution of Japan-ROK security collaboration since the Cold War and the opportunities as well as challenges for future cooperation. You’ll also hear from Lisa Collins, a fellow with the CSIS Korea Chair. Lisa explains the divergences between Tokyo and Seoul in their strategic approach to Beijing and discusses the impact the Moon Jae-in administration may have on South Korea’s approach to Japan. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Liz Mayes. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean. Read Dr. Nishino's 2017 Strategic Japan working paper here.