Conflicts of Interest

JNIM. Islamic State Sahel Province. Boko Haram.

These are the groups driving a surge in violence across the Sahel—now the world’s deadliest region for terrorism.

Across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, attacks are escalating at a pace that outstrips every other region globally. Coups, foreign troop withdrawals, and weakening state control have created space for militant groups to expand, adapt, and entrench themselves across vast areas of the region.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Sahel expert Heni Nsaibia to unpack how the Sahel became the global epicentre of terrorism. Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, they break down the strategies of these groups, the role of military-led governments, and the local dynamics fuelling the spread of violence.

The question isn’t just why the Sahel has become so deadly—but how far this instability could spread, and what it means for global security.

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Six weeks into the Iran conflict, the tides are shifting rapidly—and the stakes could not be higher. 

As the U.S. and Israel escalate their military posture, threatening to impose a naval blockade on Iran, a new chapter in regional power plays is unfolding—one that could redefine control over the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf. 

In this episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED expert Bassel Doueik delve into the decisions fueling Iran’s vulnerability, the implications of the U.S. blockade, and Israel's asymmetric warfare tactics. Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, they break down the complex web of regional actors, from Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon to the Saudi and Gulf states' subtle balancing act, and the economic chokehold designed to weaken Iran from within.

The question isn't just what happens next, but how these strategic moves could tip the balance of power and reshape alliances for years to come. 

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A ceasefire has been announced in the Iran war — but is this really de-escalation, or a strategic defeat for the United States and its allies?

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down the fragile Iran ceasefire, the unanswered questions around the deal, and why control of the Strait of Hormuz could leave Tehran in a stronger position than before.

They unpack what the reported terms may mean for Iran’s nuclear programme, Gulf security, Israel’s position, Lebanon, Hezbollah, oil markets, and the wider regional balance of power. With details still unclear and violence still threatening to continue, the bigger question is whether this is peace or just the end of one phase of the war.

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President Trump said the Iran war objectives ‘near completion’ in a televised speech last night - But what does that actually mean?

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh unpacks the latest developments in the Iran war with ACLED’s Media Manager, Bron Mills — from Iran’s leverage over key shipping routes to the limits of Israel’s decapitation strategy.

They also explore how the conflict is reshaping global dynamics, with ripple effects reaching Russia and Ukraine, energy markets, and the fragile political landscape of the Horn of Africa.

With no clear endgame in sight, the bigger question remains: what would victory even look like?

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The Iran war took another turn this weekend as Yemen’s Houthi movement officially entered the conflict, launching missile attacks against Israel and outlining new red lines that could pull more actors into the fight.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's Yemen expert Dr Luca Nevola to unpack what the Houthis’ decision means for the region. Why did they intervene now after weeks of restraint? Why target Israel instead of the Red Sea? And what does their strategy reveal about the wider “Axis of Resistance”?

They also explore the war's growing complexity — from Hezbollah’s role and Gulf state calculations to the escalating contest over the Strait of Hormuz and the risk that instability spreads further across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

As new fronts emerge and strategic red lines are drawn, the question is no longer just how this war began, but how far it could spread.

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One month into the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the focus is often on the battlefield. But wars rarely stay confined to one region.

In this special extended edition of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED founder and CEO Clionadh Raleigh brings together regional experts from across the organisation to examine how the conflict is already reshaping dynamics far beyond the Middle East.

From Lebanon and Iraq to the Gulf and beyond, the panel explores how the war is spreading through alliances, militias, political networks, and economic pressures, and where new risks could emerge if escalation continues.

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As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran approaches its first month, the question many analysts are now asking is whether the conflict could escalate beyond airstrikes. With thousands of U.S. troops moving into the region and growing speculation about operations around the Strait of Hormuz, talk of a possible ground invasion is no longer hypothetical. 

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the headlines dominating the media: Trump’s ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz, escalating strikes on energy infrastructure, and rumours of a new phase of the war. Could a ground operation actually happen — and if so, what would it look like?

Drawing on ACLED’s real-time conflict data, they explore:

•  why airstrikes alone may not achieve strategic objectives 
•  what a limited ground operation in southern Iran or around key maritime chokepoints might involve 
•  how control of global energy routes is shaping the war 
•  and why the search for a “silver bullet” in modern conflicts almost always fails. 

They also examine the wider ripple effects already unfolding — from protests across the world to attacks and tensions emerging far beyond the Middle East.

Because if this war has shown anything so far, it’s that escalation rarely follows the script — and there is no quick end in sight.

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As the war around Iran continues to widen, attention is turning to the network of militias linked to Tehran across the region.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED experts Dr Luca Nevola and Bassel Doueik to unpack what’s happening on two key fronts: Yemen and Lebanon.

Why has Hezbollah escalated from Lebanon, while the Houthis appear to be holding back? What role do these groups play in Iran’s regional strategy, and how might their decisions shape the next phase of the conflict?

Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, the team explains how these militias operate, what they are watching for, and what their next moves could mean for the wider war.

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The Iran war is more than a regional conflict.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Bron Mills and ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh examine how the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States is expanding beyond the battlefield, affecting global energy markets, regional alliances, oil supply and the wider international system.

They discuss the growing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where threats to shipping and oil supply are raising global economic concerns, as well as the continued strikes targeting military infrastructure inside Iran.

The conversation explores:

• Why the conflict is widening rather than slowing
• How disruptions to oil and shipping could affect the global economy
• Why countries like the UK, Japan, Australia and the EU are hesitant to become involved
• and what “success” actually looks like for the actors involved in the war.

As the conflict spreads across the region and its consequences ripple outward, one thing is becoming clear: the impact of this war is being felt far beyond the Middle East.

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As strikes between Iran, Israel, and the United States continue, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase. What began as an exchange of missile attacks is quickly evolving into a broader regional confrontation with global consequences.

In this emergency episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh and media relations manager Bron Mills break down what the first ten days of the war reveal about strategy, escalation, and the risks ahead.

They discuss why this conflict has spread across more countries faster than almost any modern war, how missile and drone attrition could shape the battlefield, and what Iran’s new leadership means for the direction of the conflict. The conversation also explores the role of the IRGC, the limits of air power, and why running out of weapons may matter less than running out of political will.

Finally, they tackle the question many people around the world are asking: Are we witnessing the early stages of a world war?

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