Conflicts of Interest

The US is using missiles and air-defence interceptors across multiple fronts — from the war with Iran and protecting bases in the Middle East to years of support for Ukraine. But can American weapons production keep up with demand?

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED President and CEO Clionadh Raleigh joins Bron Mills to ask whether the US is really running short of missiles — and what dwindling stocks could mean for Ukraine, Europe and American deterrence against Russia and China.

They deconstruct why sophisticated interceptors take so long and cost so much to produce, how cheap drone swarms are changing the economics of warfare, and why critical minerals are becoming increasingly important to military power.

Plus: the latest US-Iran exchanges, the economic pressure building inside Iran, and why Clionadh believes drones, missiles, AI and the ability to outproduce your opponents could define the next era of state-on-state conflict.

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Donald Trump says the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is threatening ships, US interests and countries that support Washington. The Houthis are putting pressure on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. And cyber attacks are bringing the conflict much closer to home.

ACLED President and CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills discuss who really controls one of the world’s most important shipping routes — and whether the Gulf is becoming the centre of a much bigger global struggle.

They discuss Trump’s promised “economic D-Day” against Iran, Tehran’s strategy, cyber warfare and attacks on civilian infrastructure, the Houthis’ growing leverage, and why future wars may be fought as much through businesses, energy systems and global trade as on traditional battlefields.

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Who can still rely on the United States — and which countries are building new alliances instead?

From Donald Trump’s approach to Kim Jong Un and South Korea, to the growing partnership between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, the global alliance map is shifting.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, prof Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills connect the dots between some of the biggest geopolitical developments shaping the world: Russia’s threats against Britain, the war in Ukraine, shifting US–Israel relations, tensions with Iran, and the rise of increasingly influential middle powers.

From Trump, Putin and Kim Jong Un to Netanyahu, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, this episode looks beyond individual relationships to ask who is gaining influence, who is losing it — and what the emerging global order could look like.

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India’s ‘Cockroach Janta Party’ protest movement has claimed a major victory, forcing the resignation of the country’s education minister — the first cabinet minister to resign under public pressure in 12 years of Narendra Modi’s government.

ACLED’s Pearl Pandya joins Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills to ask why this movement succeeded where others have failed, whether India’s young protesters can turn their first victory into lasting political change, and why they deliberately distanced themselves from the Gen Z movements seen elsewhere in South Asia.

They also look across the border to Pakistan, where rising Islamist militancy, tensions with Afghanistan and a resurgent Baloch separatist movement reveal a very different relationship between protest, repression and political violence.

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Two years after Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election — and months after Nicolás Maduro was removed from power — who is really running the country?

Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED’s Tiziano Breda to trace how the contested election helped pave the way for Maduro’s downfall and examine the uneasy system that has replaced him. Delcy Rodríguez remains in power, the opposition is still waiting for a transition, and Washington holds enormous leverage over Venezuela’s oil industry.

They also ask what the US actually wants from Venezuela, whether elections are coming, and how June’s devastating earthquakes could upset an already fragile political balance, from fuelling public anger to creating new opportunities for armed groups.

And with billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil revenues reportedly passing through a US-controlled system, one question looms particularly large: where is the money going?

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What does Ukraine’s reported strike on an Iranian cargo ship tell us about the expanding war — and was it really a message to Donald Trump?

Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack why Ukraine may be taking the fight beyond Russia, what Iran’s threat of retaliation means, and where the Houthis fit into the conflict.

Plus, after an attack at a Pride event in Berlin, they look at Europe’s changing terror threat, the rise of less sophisticated, lone-actor attacks, and the difficult question facing governments: how do you prevent rare but devastating violence without over-securitising society?

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While political leaders frame left-wing extremism as the rising domestic terror threat, the actual data (who commits violence, against whom, and why) points in a more uncomfortable direction.

This week on Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down what ACLED's data reveals about political violence in the United States and beyond:

• Is the far left genuinely becoming a greater security threat, or is the danger being overstated for political gain? 
• What does the data actually say about violence committed by far-right vs far-left actors? 
• Why does the perception of the threat diverge so sharply from the reality?
• How does partisan framing of national security distort counterterrorism priorities?

They also discuss the rising tide of violence against politicians and local officials, the Trump administration's latest gender politics in the US military, and the accelerating trend of everything — from national security to football — becoming partisan.

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This week on Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Myanmar expert, Su Mon, to examine why Myanmar's civil war won't end anytime soon despite sweeping early resistance gains.

They break down the fractured battlefield of hundreds of armed groups, the military stalemate between the junta and opposition forces, and how drones, improvised aircraft, and shifting alliances are reshaping the conflict. The conversation explores China's role as the country's most influential external player, and asks why geopolitics continues to outweigh the concerns of three million displaced civilians.

The episode also turns to Iran and Ukraine, where recent escalations have raised fresh questions about the trajectory of both wars, the limits of military force, and what comes next.

From Tehran to Naypyidaw, this episode unpacks the power politics driving today's conflicts—and why understanding them means looking far beyond the battlefield.

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This week on Conflict of Interests, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Sudan expert, Nohad Khaddaj, to examine why Sudan's war remains deadlocked despite mounting diplomatic pressure.

They break down the siege of Al Obeid, the military stalemate between the SAF and RSF, and how drones, foreign backing, and regional rivalries are reshaping the battlefield. The conversation explores the roles of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, and asks why geopolitics continues to outweigh humanitarian concerns.

The episode also turns to Iran, where the funeral of the country's supreme leader drew vast crowds and raised fresh questions about the future of the regime, domestic support, and what comes next after the war.

From Tehran to Khartoum, this episode unpacks the power politics driving today's conflicts—and why understanding them means looking far beyond the battlefield.

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The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can push? 

Britain's anti-migration fracture has moved from political rhetoric to street-level reality — and with the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years about to take office, the question isn't whether it escalates, but where. 

This week, Clionadh and Bron break down the weekend's strikes on Iran, why the Hormuz closure matters more than the bombs, and what the MoU's fragility tells us about who really holds the cards. They look at why Tehran gains from the chaos, what the US retaliation did and didn't achieve, and why a ceasefire that was always a stopgap is now visibly in question. 

They also explore the UK's anti-migration escalation, examine how one attack spiraled into nationwide unrest, and connect the deeper thread: state failure, institutional decay, and the erosion of public trust, at home and abroad.

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