Conflicts of Interest

They don't exist — but they get paid. And they leave real front lines empty.

In this Halloween special, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills breaks down the phenomenon of modern ghost armies: not spirits, but fraud. Commanders list soldiers who never served, pocket their salaries, and report full strength while military units are hollowed out.

From Yemen and Iraq to Russia and China, how does military payroll fraud work, why does it persist, and what can ACLED data tell us about where these hollow forces are most vulnerable to collapse?

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What’s really driving the world’s conflicts? What are we missing? And what questions should we be asking?

Every week, and sometimes in between, Conflicts of Interest goes beyond the headlines to challenge assumptions, unpack the data, and make sense of what’s happening around the world. 

Next week marks our 50th episode! 

From the biggest international crises to the stories that barely make the news, Conflicts of Interest brings together ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, a world-leading expert in conflict data, and journalist Bron Mills, armed with endless curiosity, plenty of questions, and the occasional questionable metaphor.

Follow and share Conflicts of Interest wherever you get your podcasts, and catch up on all episodes now. 

And we want to hear from you! Have a question you'd like answered or a topic you'd like us to cover? Let us know in the comments — it might just make it into a future episode.

Streaming now, wherever you get your podcasts. 

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France averages 20 protests a day. Right now it's 65 — and 1 in 4 is a riot. No spin. Just the data.

Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills explain why French school funding protests turned into 43 days of national unrest across 800 locations, with mass arrests, shuttered schools, and Yellow Vests back on the streets. Why austerity, debt, and collapsing public services broke Macron's centrist bargain — and why Le Pen benefits without answers.

Plus: Yemen’s renewed Houthi-Saudi fighting and $6B Suez hit, and Ethiopia’s three-track push on TPLF, Eritrea, and sea access.

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Houthi missiles are hitting Saudi airports as Ethiopia and Eritrea move closer to war. 

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh, Bron Mills and Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru examine more than 100 Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia in just 30 days, including attacks on airports, and the escalating threat of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

From the Houthis' campaign against Saudi Arabia and threats to Red Sea shipping to Eritrean troops entering Tigray, Ethiopia's ambitions over the port of Assab, and Egypt's growing influence in the Horn of Africa, the conversation explores how these conflicts are connected — and what could happen next.

Why won't the Houthis back down? Could Ethiopia invade Eritrea? And is a wider regional war becoming inevitable?

Plus:

• Israel and Gaza: Has the war changed the world, and how is it shaping political debate?
• Ukraine: Russian strikes target power plants and energy infrastructure.
• US and Russia: Trump faces bipartisan criticism over Russian diesel purchases.
• France: Hackers manipulate supermarket refrigeration systems, causing fires and food losses.

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Ethiopia’s forces have retaken Mekelle — but the fighting in the north is far from over, as regional relationships are also shifting across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, with Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan renewing ties.

Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined again by ACLED’s Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack what comes next: the future of the TPLF and TDF, Eritrea’s role in the conflict, Ethiopia’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea, and the growing risk of fighting crossing Ethiopia’s borders.

They look at the wider regional picture, from Egypt and Sudan to Yemen, Somalia, and the Gulf, and ask how a confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea could pull in competing powers across the Red Sea.

Plus: 

• UK security: What the withdrawal of US aircraft from RAF Fairford could tell us about confidence in Britain’s ability to protect critical military infrastructure — and respond to unconventional security threats.
• Iran: With the Strait of Hormuz returning toward normal operations, has Tehran lost one of its biggest sources of leverage — and where does the conflict go from here?
• Saudi Arabia and the Houthis: As Riyadh considers renewed support for forces fighting the Houthis, can a new counter-offensive actually shift the balance in Yemen?

Track the conflict in Ethiopia with ACLED’s latest data at acleddata.com 

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Fighting is escalating across northern Ethiopia. Is the seven-group anti-government alliance already falling apart?

Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack the TPLF offensive, divisions within the rebel coalition, and what Eritrea's and Egypt's involvement means for the next phase of the conflict in Ethiopia. We break down why the Djibouti trade corridor — Ethiopia's vital economic lifeline — could shape what happens next.

This episode provides data-driven analysis of the Tigray war resurgence, Eritrea-Ethiopia tensions, Abiy Ahmed’s strategy, and the regional struggle involving Eritrea, Egypt, and Tigray news from northern Ethiopia. No spin. Just the data.

PLUS:

• UK terror threat: What the RAF Fairford arrests could tell us about how foreign states test British security — and whether UK institutions are equipped to respond to less conventional threats.
• Iran: With Strait of Hormuz traffic reportedly back towards pre-war capacity, has Iran lost one of its biggest sources of leverage in the conflict? 
• Saudi Arabia and the Houthis: Why Riyadh is turning to Israel and the UAE for help — and what Abu Dhabi could demand in return for its support.

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In this emergency episode, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED Senior Analyst for East Africa Dr Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack the sudden surge in fighting in northern Ethiopia.

What has changed? Who is fighting whom? And is Ethiopia heading back towards full-scale war?

They break down the latest developments in Tigray, the new alliances forming against Abiy Ahmed’s government, and why the fighting cannot be understood in isolation. From Eritrea and Egypt to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Houthis, Ethiopia’s conflict is increasingly tied to a much bigger struggle for influence and control around the Red Sea.

This is expert-led conflict analysis connecting what is happening on the ground in Tigray to the regional power struggle that could determine what happens next.

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Trump, Cartels, and Fuel Prices: Noise or News?

There’s a lot happening in the world. But how much of it actually matters?

This week, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills introduce Noise or News? — a new game sorting the headlines worth paying attention to from those making more noise than impact.

They bounce around the world: from a new opposition coalition in Ethiopia and the rise of Germany’s AfD, to Mexico’s changing cartel violence, Trump’s latest fight with the media, and protests over fuel prices.

Plus: what 200 days of war with Iran have actually changed, why Saudi Arabia is struggling with the Houthis, whether sanctions against the International Criminal Court really matter, and the slightly stranger question of whether Narendra Modi managed to give world leaders food poisoning.

And in What Fresh Hell Awaits?, Clionadh returns to Ethiopia, where the latest political maneuvering may be less important than what it signals about what comes next.

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Who are the Houthis and what do they want? As the Houthis advance in Yemen and Saudi Arabia takes missile and drone hits, the forces meant to stop them are collapsing — with some units reportedly made up of nearly 80% ghost soldiers who exist on paper but not on the battlefield.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills go beyond the headlines to explain what is actually happening in Yemen: who the Houthis (Ansar Allah) are, what they want, why Iran doesn't simply control them, and why Saudi Arabia is struggling to find anyone willing to help.

We break down Houthi goals and territorial gains, Saudi Arabia's security dilemma, the limits of drones and airpower, and the growing problem of paper armies that can't deliver on the ground — and what Yemen tells us about a much bigger shift in modern warfare.

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In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills go beyond the headlines to break down extreme violence worldwide. 

From cartel massacres in Mexico to gang killings in Haiti's Kenshoff, Houthi attacks around Yemen and Saudi Arabia, renewed Russian strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine, to protest crackdowns in Iran — why does some violence dominate the news while far deadlier crises are ignored?

We cover: 

• Why Ukraine ranks #1 for fatalities, but India, Nigeria, Brazil, and Mexico lead for population exposure to political violence. 
• Why Honduras, Guatemala, Ecuador, Cameroon, and the Philippines have the highest civilian share of deaths from gangs and organized crime. 
• Why extreme violence works — group cohesion, kidnapping economics, and being "beyond negotiation." 

Plus: migration battles in the UK and US, anti-AfD protests in Germany, Israel's West Bank operation, and why public empathy is totally exhausted.

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