Conflicts of Interest

What happens when strikes, assassinations, and internal unrest collide inside one of the Middle East's most powerful states?

In this emergency episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Media Relations Manager Bron Mills break down the rapidly escalating crisis in Iran — from US and Israeli strikes on military infrastructure and senior leadership, to instability rippling into Iraq and Kurdish regions.

As insurgent groups seize new opportunities and regional tensions deepen, Iran is also contending with a crisis within: economic hardship, political repression, and a frustrated public pushing from below.

What role will militias play? How are global actors responding? And what does the next phase look like?

Tune in to understand the forces behind one of the most consequential crises in the Middle East today.

#Iran #MiddleEast #ConflictAnalysis #ACLED #ConflictsOfInterest

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What happens when the killing of Iran’s supreme leader sends shockwaves across an already volatile region?

In this emergency episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED Media Relations Manager Bron Mills to unpack the explosive developments in Iran and the wider Middle East following this weekend’s strikes.

What do leadership decapitation, regional retaliation, and rising tensions mean for the trajectory of conflict — and how far could the fallout spread?

Tune in to today’s emergency episode to find out.

#Iran #MiddleEast #IranCrisis #ConflictAnalysis #ACLED

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What happens when the death of a cartel leader reshapes violence across an entire country?

In this special episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd are joined by ACLED Senior analyst for Latin America, Sandra Pellegrini to unpack the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes — “El Mencho” — and the power vacuum already fuelling violence in Mexico.

What comes next for cartel control, security forces, and Mexico’s wider conflict landscape?

Watch tomorrow’s emergency episode to find out.

#Mexico #CartelViolence #ElMencho #ConflictAnalysis #ACLED #ConflictsOfInterest

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Ukraine: Frozen frontlines. Frozen homes.

Four years into the war, territorial change is minimal, but renewed strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have left civilians freezing. Ranked the deadliest country in the world by ACLED’s Conflict Index, the conflict is increasingly shaped by drones and attacks far from the battlefield.

Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd break down what people still don’t understand about Ukraine today.

#UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine4YearsOn

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What happens when Gulf rivalries travel far beyond the Middle East — and into Africa’s most fragile regions?

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack how Saudi Arabia and the UAE are shaping conflicts across the Horn of Africa, from Yemen to Sudan, often through non-state actors, proxy forces, and economic leverage.

The conversation explores why Saudi Arabia is frequently framed as a stabilising power, how the UAE’s interventions have contributed to instability, and why civilians continue to bear the greatest cost. Together, they examine the blurred lines between state and non-state actors, the role of external powers, and what these dynamics mean for humanitarian crises, regional stability, and the future of conflict in Africa.

This episode goes beyond headlines to explain how Gulf power politics are reshaping wars — and why the consequences are long-term and deeply human.

#GulfMonarchies #HornOfAfrica #SaudiArabia #UAE #ProxyConflicts #HumanitarianCrisis #NonStateActors #Geopolitics #RegionalStability #EconomicInterests

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Who decides war and peace in Gaza, and how much power does political leadership hold?

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd examine the rise of the Board of Peace and ask whether global decision-making over conflict is being centralised, with Donald Trump taking the lead.

Using Gaza as a reference point, the conversation explores how current peace efforts are shaped by political leadership choices, imposed timelines, economic fixes, and elite deal-making, often sidelining justice, political consent, and local realities.

The episode places the Board of Peace within the broader weakening of United Nations-led diplomacy and asks what is lost when peace becomes a matter of executive decision-making rather than negotiated political process, and what this means for conflicts still unfolding.

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President Trump said his New Years Resolution was "peace on earth" ... others suggest it's "world domination"

The US president told the New York Times that there is only one thing that can limit his global power: his own morality, adding that he does not need international law.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack what it means when global power is framed as a personal choice rather than a political or legal constraint.

They explore the rapid and highly personalised use of US force — from Venezuela to threats directed at Nigeria, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, and even Greenland. They examine what has changed in the way power is exercised, and what has disappeared: coalition-building, legal justification, and even the pretence of multilateral consent.

#Trump #GlobalPower #Venezuela #InternationalLaw #ConflictTrends

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2025 marked a turning point in global conflict — not because violence suddenly appeared, but because it reached a scale, spread, and persistence that now feels like a new normal.

In this year-end episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd look back at what 2025 revealed about political violence around the world. 

Drawing on data and analysis from ACLED, they unpack where violence was most concentrated, how it evolved across regions, and why civilians faced unprecedented levels of risk.

Using ACLED’s global conflict index, we explain how violence is measured — including how dangerous, widespread, fragmented, and lethal conflicts have become — and why these indicators matter for understanding today’s security landscape. The picture that emerges is deeply concerning: more countries experiencing extreme violence, conflicts becoming harder to contain, and distinctions between war, criminal violence, and political unrest increasingly blurred.

This episode breaks down the key trends that defined 2025, challenges common assumptions about where and how violence occurs, and asks what these patterns mean as the world heads into 2026.

#GlobalConflict #PoliticalViolence #ConflictTrends #GlobalSecurity

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With help from President Trump and Nicki Minaj, recent headlines have raised alarm about the safety of Christian communities in Nigeria, with claims that Christians are being deliberately targeted amid worsening insecurity. 

These narratives have travelled quickly … shaping political debate, international responses, and public understanding. 

But do they reflect the full picture of violence in the country?

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd examine what the data actually shows. Drawing on analysis from ACLED, they explore who is being targeted, where violence is occurring, and how different forms of conflict intersect across Nigeria. 

From insurgency in the northeast and criminal banditry in the northwest, to communal violence, kidnapping, and clashes involving state forces, civilians across religious and ethnic lines are facing growing risks.

They also unpack why Nigeria’s violence is so often framed through a religious lens, and what that framing obscures. 

#Nigeria #PoliticalViolence #ReligionAndConflict #CivilianProtection

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Comedian Simon Brodkin once asked, ‘If I had a phone, am I more or less likely to make a call than someone without one?’

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack the narratives around gun violence and political violence in the United States, and interrogate where they come from. 

Drawing on data and analysis from ACLED, the hosts explore the distinction between political violence and criminal gun violence, and why the two are so often conflated in public debate.

The conversation looks at why Americans report feeling less safe even when certain forms of violence are declining, how high-profile attacks skew perception, and how US gun violence compares to political violence patterns seen elsewhere in the world. 

Rather than treating the United States as an outlier, the episode places it in a broader global context, asking what is genuinely changing, and what is being amplified by media cycles and political rhetoric.

#GunViolence #PoliticalViolence #UnitedStates #PublicSafety

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