1-20-25 Conservative Commandos: Cuba's collapse looks inevitable after capture of Nicholas Maduro.
Few people realise that the Castro regime didn't just use Venezuelan oil to keep the lights on, they used it as a major source of income by selling the surplus.
1. The End of the "Free Oil" Lifeline
For over two decades, the single most important pillar of the Cuban economy has been the "Barrio Adentro" agreement, which saw Venezuela ship roughly 50,000 barrels of oil per day to Havana essentially for free. With the US military now securing Venezuelan ports and oil fields following yesterday's operation, these shipments have hit zero overnight. Cuba, which is already cash-strapped, simply does not have the foreign currency reserves to buy this amount of oil on the open market at global prices, meaning the island's energy supply has effectively been cut in half instantly.
2. The Loss of the "Resale" Revenue Stream
Few people realise that the Castro regime didn't just use Venezuelan oil to keep the lights on; they used it as a major source of income by selling the surplus. Venezuela often sent more refined fuel than the island needed, allowing Havana to sell the excess on the international market to generate hard currency. The fall of Maduro wipes out this "middleman" profit entirely, removing one of the few remaining sources of US dollars the government used to import food and medicine, which will accelerate the humanitarian crisis to breaking point.
3. The Return of the "Intelligence Army"
The collapse in Caracas creates a dangerous logistical and political crisis involving the estimated 15,000 Cuban intelligence agents, military advisors, and doctors stationed in Venezuela. These operatives, who were essentially leased to Maduro to protect his regime, are now fleeing back to the island in a panic. They are returning to a country with no food, no power, and crucially, no money to pay them. A disgruntled, unpaid security apparatus returning from a failed war is a classic recipe for instability and potential coups inside Havana itself.
4. The 100% Blackout Scenario
Cuba’s power grid is ancient, crumbling, and runs almost entirely on the heavy crude oil that arrived weekly from PDVSA tankers. Even with that steady supply, the island faced punishing 12-hour blackouts throughout 2025. Without the Venezuelan shipments, energy experts predict the island's thermoelectric plants will go offline indefinitely within two weeks. This "Total National Blackout" will shut down water pumps, destroy refrigerated food stocks, and cripple hospitals, making daily life physically impossible for millions.
5. The "Rubio Doctrine" Means No Mercy
Unlike previous administrations that might have looked for a diplomatic off-ramp or offered humanitarian aid, the current political landscape in Washington is hostile. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has explicitly stated that the "head of the snake is in Havana," signaling a shift to a "Maximum Pressure" strategy. The US Navy is expected to tighten the blockade to ensure that no other actors, such as Iran or Russia, can step in to replace the Venezuelan oil supply, effectively besieging the island until political change occurs.
6. No Soviet Savior on the Horizon
In the past, when its patron collapsed (like the Soviet Union in 1991), Cuba found a new sponsor. That will not happen in 2026. Russia is bogged down in its own economic wars and cannot afford to subsidize an entire nation across the Atlantic. China has already stopped extending credit due to non-payment, and while Mexico sent emergency fuel in late 2025, they cannot afford to permanently bankroll Cuba’s energy needs, especially with President Trump threatening massive tariffs on any nation that interferes with his regional strategy.
7. The "Maleconazo 2.0" Risk
The Cuban regime’s survival has always depended on its ability to repress dissent, but repression requires fuel. You need gasoline to run the police trucks, troop transports, and surveillance vehicles that crush protests. When the strategic fuel reserves run dry in roughly 20 days, the Cuban military effectively loses its mobility. If the population rises up in a desperate "Maleconazo" style rebellion and the police cannot physically deploy to stop it, the 67-year-old dictatorship risks collapsing simply because it ran out of gas.
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