Does Putin’s hold on power now look stronger or weaker? What can we learn about where the Russia-Ukraine war is heading? And what is actually happening with the Ukraine counter-offensive?

Fred Kagan is the Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. He is also working closely with the Russia team at the Institute for the Study of War. Fred is a former professor of military history at the US Military Academy at West Point. He completed his PhD in Soviet and Russian military history at Yale University.

The Critical Threats Project – https://www.criticalthreats.org/
Institute for the Study of War – https://understandingwar.org/

Cracks in the Kremlin? With Fred Kagan

Political and geopolitical analysis from the world's top experts, hosted by Dan Senor.

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In recent days, we have had three persistent questions:

One, how is it that – in just a matter of approximately 10 days – managed to move anywhere between 850,000 to a million Gazan Palestinians from Rafah to other areas of Gaza so Israel could conduct its operation against remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah? Weren’t we repeatedly told by the Biden administration that it was impossible?

So, our first question is, how did this happen? And what does it tell us about other gaps between the Biden administration forecasts and that of Israel’s when it comes to war-fighting in Gaza?

Our second question is about Egypt. Given what we have learned in recent days, why has Egypt escaped any real scrutiny or pressure over the past 7 months?

Our third question is whether all the heat on the Israeli Government for a lack of a “day after” plan really about the pursuit of a “day after” plan, or is it about deflecting scrutiny from other failures?  

To help us answer these questions and others, we are joined by Amos Harel, who has been the military correspondent and defense analyst for Israel's Haaretz newspaper for 25 years. He is among the most well-sourced and thoughtful journalists and analysts covering Israeli security affairs inside Israel. Prior to his current position, Amos spent four years as night editor for the Haaretz Hebrew print edition, and from 1999-2005 he was the anchor on a weekly Army Radio program about defense issues.

Along with frequent "Call Me Back" guest and Fauda co-creator Avi Issacharoff, Amos co-wrote a book about the Second Intifada, called "The Seventh War: How we won and why we lost the war with the Palestinians", which was published in 2004 and translated into several languages, including Arabic.

Amos and Avi also co-wrote "34 Days: Israel, Hezbollah and the War in Lebanon", about the war of 2006, which was published in 2008.

Rafah, Egypt & the "Day After" - with Amos Harel

Share Episode on Twitter: https://tinyurl.com/327et39r


Haviv Rettig Gur returns for a regular check-in, in which we analyze the emerging political scenarios that might emerge from the moves being made by Yoav Gallant, Benny Gantz and Naftali Bennett.

We also discuss the implications of the crash of the helicopter transporting Iran's president -- what does it mean for Israel and other stakeholders OUTSIDE Iran and what does it mean INSIDE Iran?

And then there was Gantz - with Haviv Rettig Gur

Jared Cohen is Co-Head of the Office of Applied Innovation and President of Global Affairs at Goldman Sachs.  He also serves on the Management Committee of the firm. Jared is also the most senior Goldman executive to visit Israel since October 7. But Jared did not just visit Israel – and meet with a range of senior Israeli political leaders and security officials – he also was in Ramallah, in the West Bank to meet Palestinian Authority officials and Jordan – just before Jordan participated in the extraordinary multi-national defense of Israel, despite tense relations between the Israeli and Jordanian governments. 

And since then, Jared has traveled extensively throughout the Persian Gulf States, where he has a long history of deep relationships. 

It was interesting to get a fresh take from Jared on this region in transition.

Prior to joining Goldman, Jared was an executive at Alphabet, before which he was Google’s first Director of Ideas and Chief Advisor to Google’s then CEO and Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt. From 2006 to 2010, he served as a member of the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff and as a close advisor to both Condoleezza Rice and Hillary Clinton.

Jared is a New York Times bestselling author of six books, including "One Hundred Days of Silence: America and the Rwanda Genocide," "Children of Jihad," "The New Digital Age: Transforming Nations, Business, and our Lives," which he co-authored with Eric Schmidt, and, most recently, "Life After Power: Seven Presidents and their Search for Purpose Beyond the White House," which you can order here: https://tinyurl.com/5xm8v7ft

OR

https://tinyurl.com/2ua6mzjd

Paper discussed in this episode: "The rise of geopolitical swing states" -- https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-rise-of-geopolitical-swing-states.html

Bonus Episode: Will the Middle East Be Unrecognizable? - with Jared Cohen

Last night, Israel time, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant took the exceptional step of publicly declaring his view that the current war trajectory is leading to one of two scenarios in Gaza: Hamas rules Gaza OR the IDF rules Gaza - both, Gallant says, are catastrophic outcomes. 

Gallant set an ultimatum for Prime Minister Netanyahu by saying that he would oppose Israeli military rule in Gaza, signaling that this is his red line and he blamed Netanyahu for what Gallant believes is a lack of a post-war plan.

In this special episode, we asked Nadav Eyal to: A. Analyze Gallant's dramatic speech. B. Discuss what this means for the war, and C. Where this could lead politically. 

NADAV EYAL is a columnist at Yediiot. Eyal is one of Israel’s leading journalists, and a winner of the Sokolov Prize, Israel’s most prestigious journalism award. Eyal has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news. He received a master’s degree from the London School of Economics and a law degree from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

SPECIAL EPISODE: Gallant Strikes (Again) - with Nadav Eyal

HOUSEKEEPING NOTE: The first "Call Me Back" Live Event will take place on Monday June 3 at 6:00 pm at the Comedy Cellar in New York City. At the event -- which will ultimately be posted as an episode -- we will be talking to Michael Rapaport about the crisis of antisemitism in America and what it means for Israel and for American Jews. Partial proceeds for the event will go to Lev Echad ("One Heart"), an Israeli non-profit organization that has been doing indispensable work, especially since 10/07.  To RSVP, please go to comedycellar.com, click the lineups button on the top left and select June 3. (There will also be an opportunity for audience questions and discussion following the formal conversation, and an extended smaller private event afterwards for those interested.)

TODAY'S EPISODE: As Independence Day was winding down in Israel, I sat down for a conversation with Tal Becker in Jerusalem to discuss the deep uncertainty in Israeli society: we don’t know when or if the hostages will return home, we don’t when or if Hamas will be defeated, or even when or if the 100,000 displaced Israelis will return to their homes in the South and in the North. We don't know if a war with Hezbollah is next, and we certainly don’t know if and what could be a long term solution for the Palestinian conflict with Israel or Iran’s conflict with Israel.

Dr. Tal Becker serves as a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem and was the former Legal Adviser of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He is a veteran member of successive Israeli peace negotiation teams and, most recently, represented Israel before the International Court of Justice and played an instrumental role in negotiating and drafting the historic peace and normalization agreements (the "Abraham Accords"). Dr. Becker earned his doctorate from Columbia University in New York City, and is the recipient of numerous scholarly awards, including the Rabin Peace Prize, and the Guggenheim Prize for best international law book for his book "Terrorism and the State".

Cracks in the Kremlin? With Fred Kagan

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