Crossing Thin Ice

The risk of hyperinflation should not be ignored despite our lack of recent experience with it in the U.S. Hyperinflation is not just theoretical, our discussion looks at the core mechanics of inflation - most notably that it is based on trust. Max shares a comprehensive look at the unique factors cushioning the U.S., such as reserve currency status, while also addressing significant growing risks, including consistent deficits and a debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 100%. Hear about the complex interactions of economic policy, shadow banking, and the leading indicators that proactive risk managers must monitor to prepare for potential high-inflation scenarios.

Blog post of this story:  

https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/hyperinflation

Survival in chaos doesn't come from optimization. It comes from diversification, buffers, and the speed to decide what to do next.

Pragmatists have a completely different way of doing risk management that is designed for these VUCA times. By focusing on building resilience to survive volatility.  Most managers are doing this wrong by chasing efficiency in a uncertain world. In this episode, we break down the "Pragmatist Manifesto" and its six core principles.

Stability breeds instability. If your model assumes calm continuity, you might be blind to the pile of sand that's about to avalanche. 

Many actuaries and financial modelers rely on recent data and linear trending of assumptions, missing the amplifying loops that can accelerate change to topple entire systems. We discuss what to look for instead. 

We are making decisions with incomplete and conflicting information every day.  Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) make it harder and harder to get those decisions right. Maybe we need to change our objective, not to find the best decision, but the one with the least chance of disastrous consequences.  Keep your eyes out for the Regime change that has started.  We provide four examples of what may be next.  

How do you make a confident decision when the information itself is unclear? Ambiguity is the core challenge of modern leadership.

But the pursuit of perfect data to drive good decisions leads right into "analysis paralysis".  We need to be enhancing our capability to use strategies like satisficing—making the best possible decision within time constraints—and using narrative scenarios to communicate complex risks to non-experts. For professionals and graduates navigating an uncertain future, the key takeaway is that human judgment, creativity, and ethical reasoning are the skills AI cannot replicate and are most valuable in an ambiguous world.  

A jet engine is complicated. Your company is complex. The strategies for managing the risks of each are fundamentally—and dangerously—different.

We call Complexity the "twist" in VUCA because it fundamentally changes the nature of the problems we face. While Volatility, Uncertainty, and Ambiguity describe challenging conditions, Complexity introduces a system where the parts are interdependent and adapt. This means you cannot solve a complex problem by simply breaking it into smaller, complicated parts and fixing them.

Complexity is the twist: it's the element that makes VUCA environments truly unmanageable with old playbooks. You cannot apply a "complicated" solution to a "complex" problem and get the result that you want. 

Uncertainty is rising and AI is one of the most significant drivers.  

Not because there is something wrong with AI, but because it is so different and so powerful.  We just do not know what changes are right around the corner.  We do believe that the future belongs to the companies who learn to best combine human empathy, creativity and the ability to navigate uncertainty with AI's speed of processing and power of connection making between existing ideas and new human insights.

We are entering a period of high risk coming from every direction that our current systems cannot hope to mitigate.

This episode of Crossing Thin Ice looks ahead to 2026's major challenges. Hosts Dave and Max analyze interconnected risks—from economic fragility and climate change to AI's inflection bubble. They explore whether our systems are drifting toward crisis or a path to resilience. Tune in for a systems-thinking discussion on navigating financial, geopolitical, and technological headwinds.

Diversify food strategies, not just portfolios.

Solutions like the Green Revolution and widespread monoculture farming boosted food supply but created long-term ecological and social vulnerabilities. We link population ideas from Franklin and Malthus to modern pressures—climate change, resource scarcity, migration—and warns these risks could cause solvency issues for insurers. Max discusses solutions for the agriculture sector as well as for insurers. You might consider adding this to your emerging risks list.  

Replace "this won't happen" with "what if" and give your strategy a fighting chance.

Volatility isn’t just a number — it’s the signal that tells you whether your strategy will survive shocks or be blindsided by them. This podcast starts our VUCA series and shows why time horizon, human bias, and narrative scenarios matter more than averages. Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity to follow.