CutbackPredict Daily Edge Show

Built Friday, September 11 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $6546.24 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Friday, September 11. 0 games on the board, 3 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $6546.24 against a five thousand dollar start, $5722.75 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 32 of them green, realized +$862.11. 3 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — WOF — Wofford @ Kent State
Ticket 1, graded 5 stars: I'm long WOF on Wofford @ Kent State. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 18 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 33 cents, so that's 15 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 8 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 35 cents. Risk on the ticket is $81.70, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 817 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WOF, or the contract trading through 10c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WOF at 33c; the market is paying 18c.

Ticket 2 — WAKE — Wake Forest @ Purdue
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long WAKE on Wake Forest @ Purdue. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 57 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 63 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 47 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 65 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WAKE, or the contract trading through 49c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WAKE at 60c; the number implies 65c; the market is paying 57c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 3 — BC — Rutgers @ Boston College
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long BC on Rutgers @ Boston College. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 58 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 64 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 48 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 66 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against BC, or the contract trading through 50c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has BC at 62c; the number implies 65c; the market is paying 59c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$244.20. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$243.21. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. That's 0 and 12 graded, −$501.20 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — The vig and fees
Classroom time. Fees. On Kalshi you pay a small fee on every contract, and it eats hardest at the extremes — a contract at five or ninety-five cents barely moves, so the fee can erase the edge entirely. That's why the desk lives in the fifteen to eighty-five cent band. Chalk looks safe, but after fees it's a toll road.

The classroom — Closing line value
Classroom time. Closing line value. The sharpest scoreboard in this game isn't wins and losses — it's whether you consistently bought a contract for less than where it closed at kickoff. Beat the close over a season and you're beating the market. Everything I do is graded against that closing price, not against the final score.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 3 open tickets is $194.70, 3.0 percent of a $6546.24 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Bills @ Texans, Sun, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 56 cents against a market price of 50 cents, an edge of 6.4 cents. Entry 50, stop 42, target 58, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 54c, the number implies 58c. Commanders @ Eagles, Sun, 4:25 PM EDT: PHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 71 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 5.7 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 73, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has PHI at 67c, the number implies 76c. Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon, 8:15 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 56 cents, an edge of 5.5 cents. Entry 56, stop 48, target 64, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 59c, the number implies 65c. Jets @ Titans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET: Tennessee Titans on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 58 cents against a market price of 52 cents, an edge of 6.5 cents. Entry 52, stop 44, target 60, 16 contracts for 131 dollars of risk. FPI has TEN at 58c, the number implies 58c. Dolphins @ Raiders, Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET: Las Vegas Raiders on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 63 cents against a market price of 58 cents, an edge of 3.9 cents. Entry 58, stop 50, target 65, 16 contracts for 131 dollars of risk. FPI has LV at 61c, the number implies 65c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Thursday, September 10 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $6542.16 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Thursday, September 10. 0 games on the board, 3 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $6542.16 against a five thousand dollar start, $5722.75 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 32 of them green, realized +$862.11. 3 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — WOF — Wofford @ Kent State
Ticket 1, graded 5 stars: I'm long WOF on Wofford @ Kent State. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 18 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 33 cents, so that's 15 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 8 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 35 cents. Risk on the ticket is $81.70, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 817 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WOF, or the contract trading through 10c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WOF at 33c; the market is paying 18c.

Ticket 2 — WAKE — Wake Forest @ Purdue
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long WAKE on Wake Forest @ Purdue. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 57 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 63 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 47 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 65 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WAKE, or the contract trading through 49c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WAKE at 60c; the number implies 65c; the market is paying 57c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 3 — BC — Rutgers @ Boston College
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long BC on Rutgers @ Boston College. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 58 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 64 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 48 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 66 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against BC, or the contract trading through 50c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has BC at 62c; the number implies 65c; the market is paying 59c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$244.20. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$243.21. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. That's 0 and 12 graded, −$501.20 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Position sizing
Classroom time. Position sizing. I risk one to two percent of the bankroll on any single ticket, and the size comes from the stop distance, not from confidence. Entry minus stop, divided into the risk dollars — that's the contract count. A bigger edge gets the same risk, never a bigger risk. Sizing is what keeps one bad Saturday from ending the season.

The classroom — Expected value
Classroom time. Expected value. Multiply your probability by what you win, subtract the other probability times what you lose — if that number is positive, it's a bet worth making; if it's negative, the price is wrong even if the pick feels right. You don't need to win most of your trades. You need the math on your side every single time.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 3 open tickets is $194.70, 3.0 percent of a $6542.16 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Bills @ Texans, Sun, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 56 cents against a market price of 50 cents, an edge of 6.4 cents. Entry 50, stop 42, target 58, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 54c, the number implies 58c. Commanders @ Eagles, Sun, 4:25 PM EDT: PHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 71 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 5.7 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 73, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has PHI at 67c, the number implies 76c. Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon, 8:15 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 56 cents, an edge of 5.5 cents. Entry 56, stop 48, target 64, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 59c, the number implies 65c. Cardinals @ Chargers, Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET: Los Angeles Chargers on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 85 cents against a market price of 80 cents, an edge of 4.6 cents. Entry 80, stop 72, target 87, 16 contracts for 131 dollars of risk. FPI has LAC at 81c, the number implies 88c. Jets @ Titans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET: Tennessee Titans on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 58 cents against a market price of 53 cents, an edge of 4.5 cents. Entry 53, stop 45, target 60, 16 contracts for 131 dollars of risk. FPI has TEN at 58c, the number implies 58c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Wednesday, September 9 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5684.49 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Wednesday, September 9. 0 games on the board, 3 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5684.49 against a five thousand dollar start, $4392.49 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 17 of them green, realized −$599.41. 3 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — TA&M — Arizona St @ Texas A&M
Ticket 1, graded 2 stars: I'm long TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 83 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 92 cents, so that's 9 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 73 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 94 cents. Risk on the ticket is $74.00, 1.3 percent of bankroll, 740 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TA&M, or the contract trading through 75c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has TA&M at 89c; the number implies 96c; the market is paying 83c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 2 — WAKE — Wake Forest @ Purdue
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long WAKE on Wake Forest @ Purdue. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 57 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 63 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 47 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 65 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WAKE, or the contract trading through 49c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WAKE at 60c; the number implies 65c; the market is paying 57c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 3 — BC — Rutgers @ Boston College
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long BC on Rutgers @ Boston College. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 58 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 64 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 48 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 66 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against BC, or the contract trading through 50c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has BC at 62c; the number implies 65c; the market is paying 59c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$243.21. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. MIZ on Missouri @ Kansas, in at 64 cents, lost for −$0.98. That's 0 and 12 graded, −$257.98 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Entry, stop, target
Classroom time. Mechanics of an actual trade. Every order I write has three prices before I send it: an entry — the most I'm willing to pay, a stop — the price where I admit I'm wrong and exit, and a target — the price where I take profit. Write all three first. If you can't name your stop, you don't have a trade, you have a hope.

The classroom — Limit orders, not market orders
Classroom time. Limit orders versus market orders. A market order takes whatever price is showing; a limit order sits at your price and waits. Prediction markets are thinner than stocks, so market orders slip. I work resting limit bids and let the price come to me — I'd rather miss a winner than overpay for one.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 3 open tickets is $187.00, 3.3 percent of a $5684.49 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Bills @ Texans, Sun, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 56 cents against a market price of 50 cents, an edge of 6.4 cents. Entry 50, stop 42, target 58, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 54c, the number implies 58c. Commanders @ Eagles, Sun, 4:25 PM EDT: PHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 71 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 5.7 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 73, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has PHI at 67c, the number implies 76c. Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon, 8:15 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 56 cents, an edge of 5.5 cents. Entry 56, stop 48, target 64, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 59c, the number implies 65c. Jets @ Titans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET: Tennessee Titans on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 58 cents against a market price of 53 cents, an edge of 5.3 cents. Entry 53, stop 45, target 60, 14 contracts for 114 dollars of risk. FPI has TEN at 58c, the number implies 58c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Tuesday, September 8 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5916.63 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Tuesday, September 8. 0 games on the board, 1 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5916.63 against a five thousand dollar start, $5911.90 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 27 of them green, realized +$320.56. 1 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — MIZ — Missouri @ Kansas
Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long MIZ on Missouri @ Kansas. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 64 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 70 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 54 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 72 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against MIZ, or the contract trading through 56c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has MIZ at 63c; the number implies 76c; the market is paying 66c.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. MIZ on Missouri @ Kansas, in at 64 cents, lost for −$0.98. MIZ on Missouri @ Kansas, in at 64 cents, lost for −$0.98. SMU on SMU @ Florida St, in at 69 cents, won for +$2.17. SMU on SMU @ Florida St, in at 54 cents, won for +$1.23. LOU on Louisville @ Ole Miss, in at 14 cents, won for +$1.26. That's 8 and 4 graded, +$53.62 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

Best bets — The bets posted on the board right now
These are the best bets posted on the board at LiveGridiron right now — same numbers you are looking at on the site, read out with the reasoning. Wofford Terriers in Wofford @ Kent State: market is paying 16 cents, CutbackPredict fair value is 33 cents, so that is 18 cents of mispricing. Why: FPI has WOF at 33c, the market is paying 16c. Entry 16 cents, stop 8 cents, target 35 cents — about 2.5 to one. Size is 7 contracts, $59.17 of risk. I am wrong if starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WOF, or the contract trading through 8c before kickoff. Texas A&M Aggies in Arizona St @ Texas A&M: market is paying 85 cents, CutbackPredict fair value is 92 cents, so that is 8 cents of mispricing. Why: FPI has TA&M at 89c, the number implies 96c, the market is paying 85c, both reads agree tight. Entry 85 cents, stop 77 cents, target 94 cents — about 1.2 to one. Size is 7 contracts, $59.17 of risk. I am wrong if starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TA&M, or the contract trading through 77c before kickoff. Virginia Tech Hokies in Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech: market is paying 89 cents, CutbackPredict fair value is 94 cents, so that is 5 cents of mispricing. Why: FPI has VT at 90c, the number implies 98c, the market is paying 89c. Entry 88 cents, stop 80 cents, target 96 cents — about 1.0 to one. Size is 7 contracts, $59.17 of risk. I am wrong if starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against VT, or the contract trading through 80c before kickoff. Kansas State Wildcats in Washington St @ Kansas St: market is paying 90 cents, CutbackPredict fair value is 93 cents, so that is 4 cents of mispricing. Why: FPI has KSU at 88c, the number implies 98c, the market is paying 90c. Entry 87 cents, stop 79 cents, target 95 cents — about 1.0 to one. Size is 7 contracts, $59.17 of risk. I am wrong if starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against KSU, or the contract trading through 79c before kickoff.

Live odds — College football odds, live off the board
Line check — these are live prices as I am reading them, not this morning's screenshot. Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami Hurricanes: the line is MIA -55.5. Total at 61.5. My model has them 100 cents. Villanova Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals: the line is LOU -36.5. Total at 56.5. My model has them 98 cents. Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia Cavaliers: the line is UVA -44.5. Total at 54.5. My model has them 100 cents. Richmond Spiders at NC State Wolfpack: the line is NCSU -30.5. Total at 48.5. Moneyline NC State Wolfpack minus 8000. That prices NC State Wolfpack at 96 cents to win outright. My model has them 96 cents. Only 0 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles: the line is BC -3. Total at 54.5. Moneyline Boston College Eagles minus 170. That prices Boston College Eagles at 60 cents to win outright. My model has them 62 cents. That line opened BC -3.5 and has moved to BC -3 today. Only 2 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. All of those prices are on the live odds page at LiveGridiron, refreshing as the books move.

The classroom — Buying yes vs buying no
Classroom time. Today: buying yes versus buying no. You don't have to back a team — you can fade one. If a favorite is trading at eighty-two cents and you think that's rich, you buy the no at eighteen cents. Same game, same dollar payout, you're just taking the other chair. New traders only ever buy the side they like; pros trade whichever side is mispriced.

The classroom — The vig and fees
Classroom time. Fees. On Kalshi you pay a small fee on every contract, and it eats hardest at the extremes — a contract at five or ninety-five cents barely moves, so the fee can erase the edge entirely. That's why the desk lives in the fifteen to eighty-five cent band. Chalk looks safe, but after fees it's a toll road.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 1 open tickets is $0.70, 0.0 percent of a $5916.63 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Commanders @ Eagles, Sun, 4:25 PM EDT: PHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 71 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 5.7 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 73, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has PHI at 67c, the number implies 76c. Bills @ Texans, Sun, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 56 cents against a market price of 50 cents, an edge of 6.4 cents. Entry 50, stop 42, target 58, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 54c, the number implies 58c. Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon, 8:15 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 56 cents, an edge of 5.5 cents. Entry 56, stop 48, target 64, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 59c, the number implies 65c. Jets @ Titans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET: Tennessee Titans on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 58 cents against a market price of 53 cents, an edge of 4.3 cents. Entry 53, stop 45, target 60, 14 contracts for 118 dollars of risk. FPI has TEN at 58c, the number implies 58c. Bears @ Panthers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET: Chicago Bears on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 63 cents against a market price of 58 cents, an edge of 3.2 cents. Entry 58, stop 50, target 65, 14 contracts for 118 dollars of risk. FPI has CHI at 60c, the number implies 65c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Monday, September 7 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5915.18 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Monday, September 7. 1 games on the board, 1 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
Here's the board. number 19 SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles, Mon, Sep 7, 7:30 PM ET. SMU Mustangs are 0-0, Florida State Seminoles are 1-0. The book has it SMU Mustangs -3, O/U 53.5. Kalshi is paying 43 cents on Florida State Seminoles. ESPN from Doak Campbell Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is SMU @ Florida St. number 19 SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles, Mon, Sep 7, 7:30 PM ET. SMU Mustangs are 0-0, Florida State Seminoles are 1-0. The book has it SMU Mustangs -3, O/U 53.5. Kalshi is paying 43 cents on Florida State Seminoles. ESPN from Doak Campbell Stadium. Across 1 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 43 cents, and 0 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles: market 57 cents on SMU, CutbackPredict fair value 60 cents. That is 3 cents.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5915.18 against a five thousand dollar start, $5911.16 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 28 of them green, realized +$362.70. 1 open, marked +$0.24 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — SMU — SMU @ Florida St
Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long SMU on SMU @ Florida St. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. number 19 SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles, Mon, Sep 7, 7:30 PM ET. SMU Mustangs are 0-0, Florida State Seminoles are 1-0. The book has it SMU Mustangs -3, O/U 53.5. Kalshi is paying 43 cents on Florida State Seminoles. ESPN from Doak Campbell Stadium. Entry was 54 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 60 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 44 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 62 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against SMU, or the contract trading through 46c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has SMU at 55c; the number implies 65c; the market is paying 58c.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. LOU on Louisville @ Ole Miss, in at 14 cents, won for +$1.26. MISS on Louisville @ Ole Miss, in at 68 cents, won for +$1.08. MISS on Louisville @ Ole Miss, in at 85 cents, lost for −$1.22. MISS on Louisville @ Ole Miss, in at 68 cents, won for +$1.22. MISS on Louisville @ Ole Miss, in at 91 cents, lost for −$1.61. That's 8 and 4 graded, +$52.88 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

Model board — CutbackPredict fair value vs the market
Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. SMU @ Florida St: market has SMU Mustangs at 57 cents, my fair value is 60 cents — 3 cents of edge. football power index has SMU Mustangs at 55 cents, the number implies 65 cents, the market is paying 57 cents. The ones that clear my filter are already ticketed above.

Live odds — College football odds, live off the board
Line check — these are live prices as I am reading them, not this morning's screenshot. SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles: the line is SMU -3. Total at 53.5. Moneyline Florida State Seminoles plus 130. That prices Florida State Seminoles at 42 cents to win outright. My model has them 45 cents. Only 3 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles: the line is BC -3.5. Total at 54.5. Moneyline Boston College Eagles minus 175. That prices Boston College Eagles at 61 cents to win outright. My model has them 62 cents. Only 1 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks: the line is MIZ -6.5. Total at 50.5. Moneyline Kansas Jayhawks plus 195. That prices Kansas Jayhawks at 32 cents to win outright. My model has them 37 cents. That line opened MIZ -6 and has moved to MIZ -6.5 today. Only 4 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboys: the line is ORE -22.5. Total at 57.5. Moneyline Oklahoma State Cowboys plus 1100. That prices Oklahoma State Cowboys at 8 cents to win outright. My model has them 7 cents. Only 1 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies: the line is TA&M -14. Total at 51.5. Moneyline Texas A&M Aggies minus 600. That prices Texas A&M Aggies at 82 cents to win outright. My model has them 89 cents. Only 6 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. All of those prices are on the live odds page at LiveGridiron, refreshing as the books move.

The classroom — Implied probability
Classroom time. Today's term is implied probability. A Kalshi contract pays one dollar if the event happens, zero if it doesn't — so a price of forty cents literally means the market thinks there's a forty percent chance. If your own number is fifty, and you can buy at forty, you're buying a dollar bill for forty cents of risk. That gap between your number and the price is the whole job.

The classroom — Position sizing
Classroom time. Position sizing. I risk one to two percent of the bankroll on any single ticket, and the size comes from the stop distance, not from confidence. Entry minus stop, divided into the risk dollars — that's the contract count. A bigger edge gets the same risk, never a bigger risk. Sizing is what keeps one bad Saturday from ending the season.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 1 open tickets is $0.70, 0.0 percent of a $5915.18 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Bills @ Texans, Sun, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 56 cents against a market price of 50 cents, an edge of 6.4 cents. Entry 50, stop 42, target 58, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 54c, the number implies 58c. Commanders @ Eagles, Sun, 4:25 PM EDT: PHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 71 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 5.7 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 73, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has PHI at 67c, the number implies 76c. Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon, 8:15 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 56 cents, an edge of 5.5 cents. Entry 56, stop 48, target 64, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 59c, the number implies 65c. Jets @ Titans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET: Tennessee Titans on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 58 cents against a market price of 53 cents, an edge of 4.3 cents. Entry 53, stop 45, target 60, 14 contracts for 118 dollars of risk. FPI has TEN at 58c, the number implies 58c. Bears @ Panthers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET: Chicago Bears on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 63 cents against a market price of 58 cents, an edge of 3.2 cents. Entry 58, stop 50, target 65, 14 contracts for 118 dollars of risk. FPI has CHI at 60c, the number implies 65c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Sunday, September 6 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5948.69 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Sunday, September 6. 3 games on the board, 3 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
Here's the board. Washington State Cougars at number 17 Washington Huskies, Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET. Washington State Cougars are 0-0, Washington Huskies are 0-0. The book has it Washington Huskies -23.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 94 cents on Washington Huskies. NBC from Husky Stadium. Wisconsin Badgers at number 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET. Wisconsin Badgers are 0-0, Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 0-0. The book has it Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20.5, O/U 46.5. Kalshi is paying 92 cents on Notre Dame Fighting Irish. NBC from Lambeau Field. number 24 Louisville Cardinals at number 9 Ole Miss Rebels, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET. Louisville Cardinals are 0-0, Ole Miss Rebels are 0-0. The book has it Ole Miss Rebels -6.5, O/U 54.5. Kalshi is paying 70 cents on Ole Miss Rebels. ABC from Nissan Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is Washington St @ Washington. Washington State Cougars at number 17 Washington Huskies, Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET. Washington State Cougars are 0-0, Washington Huskies are 0-0. The book has it Washington Huskies -23.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 94 cents on Washington Huskies. NBC from Husky Stadium. Across 3 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 85 cents, and 2 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels: market 70 cents on MISS, CutbackPredict fair value 77 cents. That is 7 cents.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5948.69 against a five thousand dollar start, $4814.81 of that sitting in cash. 30 closed tickets, 23 of them green, realized +$618.46. 3 open, marked +$0.26 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — MISS — Louisville @ Ole Miss
Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long MISS on Louisville @ Ole Miss. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. number 24 Louisville Cardinals at number 9 Ole Miss Rebels, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET. Louisville Cardinals are 0-0, Ole Miss Rebels are 0-0. The book has it Ole Miss Rebels -6.5, O/U 54.5. Kalshi is paying 70 cents on Ole Miss Rebels. ABC from Nissan Stadium. Entry was 69 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 77 cents, so that's 8 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 59 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 81 cents. Risk on the ticket is $68.60, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 686 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 59c or if MISS trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has MISS at 74c; the number implies 80c; the market is paying 70c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 2 — ND — Wisconsin @ Notre Dame
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long ND on Wisconsin @ Notre Dame. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Wisconsin Badgers at number 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET. Wisconsin Badgers are 0-0, Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 0-0. The book has it Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20.5, O/U 46.5. Kalshi is paying 92 cents on Notre Dame Fighting Irish. NBC from Lambeau Field. Entry was 92 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 97 cents, so that's 4 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 82 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 99 cents. Risk on the ticket is $71.10, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 711 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 82c or if ND trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has ND at 94c; the number implies 99c; the market is paying 92c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 3 — WASH — Washington St @ Washington
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long WASH on Washington St @ Washington. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Washington State Cougars at number 17 Washington Huskies, Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET. Washington State Cougars are 0-0, Washington Huskies are 0-0. The book has it Washington Huskies -23.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 94 cents on Washington Huskies. NBC from Husky Stadium. Entry was 88 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 94 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 78 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 96 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WASH, or the contract trading through 80c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WASH at 88c; the number implies 99c; the market is paying 93c.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. CAL on UCLA @ California, in at 20 cents, won for +$1.66. WKU on Western KY @ Nevada, in at 18 cents, won for +$2.27. UCLA on UCLA @ California, in at 48 cents, won for +$2.27. UNLV on UNLV @ Hawai'i, in at 53 cents, won for +$2.00. NU on S Dakota St @ Northwestern, in at 81 cents, won for +$1.26. That's 8 and 4 graded, +$110.47 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

Model board — CutbackPredict fair value vs the market
Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. Louisville @ Ole Miss: market has Ole Miss Rebels at 70 cents, my fair value is 77 cents — 7 cents of edge. football power index has Ole Miss Rebels at 74 cents, the number implies 80 cents, the market is paying 70 cents, both reads agree tight. Wisconsin @ Notre Dame: market has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 92 cents, my fair value is 97 cents — 5 cents of edge. football power index has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 94 cents, the number implies 99 cents, the market is paying 92 cents, both reads agree tight. The ones that clear my filter are already ticketed above.

The classroom — A pass is a position
Classroom time. The trade you'll never regret: the pass. Most of the board most days is efficiently priced, and the correct position is flat. Forcing action because you watched a game is how accounts bleed out by a thousand cuts. The desk takes zero when there's no edge — and on this show, the zero counts as a decision, not a failure.

The classroom — Entry, stop, target
Classroom time. Mechanics of an actual trade. Every order I write has three prices before I send it: an entry — the most I'm willing to pay, a stop — the price where I admit I'm wrong and exit, and a target — the price where I take profit. Write all three first. If you can't name your stop, you don't have a trade, you have a hope.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 3 open tickets is $140.40, 2.4 percent of a $5948.69 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Saturday, September 5 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5272.13 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Saturday, September 5. 20 games on the board, 4 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
Here's the board. North Texas Mean Green at number 6 Indiana Hoosiers, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. North Texas Mean Green are 0-0, Indiana Hoosiers are 0-0. The book has it Indiana Hoosiers -40.5, O/U 56.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Indiana Hoosiers. FOX from Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). East Carolina Pirates at number 13 Alabama Crimson Tide, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. East Carolina Pirates are 0-0, Alabama Crimson Tide are 0-0. The book has it Alabama Crimson Tide -27.5, O/U 52.5. Kalshi is paying 97 cents on Alabama Crimson Tide. ABC from Bryant-Denny Stadium. Oregon State Beavers at number 23 Houston Cougars, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Oregon State Beavers are 0-0, Houston Cougars are 0-0. The book has it Houston Cougars -21, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 92 cents on Houston Cougars. ESPN from TDECU Stadium. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at West Virginia Mountaineers, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 0-0, West Virginia Mountaineers are 0-0. The book has it West Virginia Mountaineers -21, O/U 54.5. Kalshi is paying 93 cents on West Virginia Mountaineers. TNT from Milan Puskar Stadium. New Hampshire Wildcats at Syracuse Orange, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. New Hampshire Wildcats are 0-1, Syracuse Orange are 0-0. The book has it Syracuse Orange -35.5, O/U 55.5. Kalshi is paying 99 cents on Syracuse Orange. Atlantic Coast Conference Network from JMA Wireless Dome. Ohio Bobcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Ohio Bobcats are 0-0, Nebraska Cornhuskers are 0-0. The book has it Nebraska Cornhuskers -23.5, O/U 46.5. Kalshi is paying 95 cents on Nebraska Cornhuskers. FS1 from Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE). That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is North Texas @ Indiana. North Texas Mean Green at number 6 Indiana Hoosiers, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. North Texas Mean Green are 0-0, Indiana Hoosiers are 0-0. The book has it Indiana Hoosiers -40.5, O/U 56.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Indiana Hoosiers. FOX from Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). Across 20 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 92 cents, and 17 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is Liberty Flames at James Madison Dukes: market 68 cents on JMU, CutbackPredict fair value 75 cents. That is 8 cents.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5272.13 against a five thousand dollar start, $3259.21 of that sitting in cash. 11 closed tickets, 10 of them green, realized +$268.98. 4 open, marked +$9.48 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — JMU — Liberty @ James Madison
Ticket 1, graded 2 stars: I'm long JMU on Liberty @ James Madison. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Liberty Flames at James Madison Dukes, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Liberty Flames are 0-0, James Madison Dukes are 0-0. The book has it James Madison Dukes -6, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 68 cents on James Madison Dukes. ESPNU from Bridgeforth Stadium. Entry was 66 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 75 cents, so that's 9 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 56 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 78 cents. Risk on the ticket is $63.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 632 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 56c or if JMU trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has JMU at 72c; the number implies 78c; the market is paying 66c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 2 — APP — Maine @ App State
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long APP on Maine @ App State. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 88 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 96 cents, so that's 8 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 78 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 99 cents. Risk on the ticket is $63.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 632 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 78c or if APP trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has APP at 93c; the number implies 98c; the market is paying 88c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 3 — USM — Alcorn St @ Southern Miss
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long USM on Alcorn St @ Southern Miss. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 91 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 98 cents, so that's 7 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 81 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 99 cents. Risk on the ticket is $63.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 632 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 81c or if USM trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has USM at 98c; the number implies 98c; the market is paying 91c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. MIA on Miami @ Stanford, in at 92 cents, won for +$0.48. USC on Fresno St @ USC, in at 92 cents, won for +$0.42. MSU on Toledo @ Michigan St, in at 77 cents, won for +$1.05. MSU on Toledo @ Michigan St, in at 92 cents, lost for −$0.92. EMU on San José St @ E Michigan, in at 27 cents, won for +$1.45. That's 10 and 1 graded, +$268.98 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

Model board — CutbackPredict fair value vs the market
Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. Liberty @ James Madison: market has James Madison Dukes at 68 cents, my fair value is 75 cents — 8 cents of edge. football power index has James Madison Dukes at 72 cents, the number implies 78 cents, the market is paying 68 cents, both reads agree tight. The ones that clear my filter are already ticketed above.

The classroom — Kelly criterion
Classroom time. The Kelly criterion. It's the formula that tells you what fraction of the bankroll a given edge justifies. Full Kelly is aggressive, so the desk runs quarter Kelly — a quarter of what the math allows — which keeps the drawdowns survivable while still pressing real edges. Edge divided by the payoff odds, then take a quarter of it. That's the whole formula.

The classroom — Buying yes vs buying no
Classroom time. Today: buying yes versus buying no. You don't have to back a team — you can fade one. If a favorite is trading at eighty-two cents and you think that's rich, you buy the no at eighteen cents. Same game, same dollar payout, you're just taking the other chair. New traders only ever buy the side they like; pros trade whichever side is mispriced.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Watchlist — Games I'm not betting
Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. Lafayette Leopards at UConn Huskies, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Lafayette Leopards are 0-0, UConn Huskies are 0-0. The book has it UConn Huskies -19.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 92 cents on UConn Huskies. UConn+ from Pratt & Whitney Stadium. Bryant Bulldogs at Army Black Knights, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Bryant Bulldogs are 1-0, Army Black Knights are 0-0. The book has it Army Black Knights -37.5, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 99 cents on Army Black Knights. CBSSN from Michie Stadium. Tarleton State Texans at Bowling Green Falcons, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Tarleton State Texans are 1-0, Bowling Green Falcons are 0-0. The book has it Bowling Green Falcons -1.5, O/U 48.5. Kalshi is paying 53 cents on Bowling Green Falcons. ESPN+ from Doyt L. Perry Stadium. Ball State Cardinals at number 1 Ohio State Buckeyes, Sat, Sep 5, 12:30 PM ET. Ball State Cardinals are 0-0, Ohio State Buckeyes are 0-0. The book has it Ohio State Buckeyes -49.5, O/U 56.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Ohio State Buckeyes. Big Ten Network from Ohio Stadium. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 4 open tickets is $252.80, 4.8 percent of a $5272.13 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Friday, September 4 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5266.50 paper book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Friday, September 4. 8 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
Here's the board. San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles, Fri, Sep 4, 6:30 PM ET. San José State Spartans are 0-1, Eastern Michigan Eagles are 1-0. The book has it Eastern Michigan Eagles -3, O/U 56.5. Kalshi is paying 57 cents on Eastern Michigan Eagles. ESPN+ from Rynearson Stadium. Indiana State Sycamores at Purdue Boilermakers, Fri, Sep 4, 7:00 PM ET. Indiana State Sycamores are 0-1, Purdue Boilermakers are 0-0. The book has it Purdue Boilermakers -35.5, O/U 56.5. Kalshi is paying 99 cents on Purdue Boilermakers. Big Ten Network from Ross-Ade Stadium. North Carolina A&T Aggies at Georgia State Panthers, Fri, Sep 4, 7:00 PM ET. North Carolina A&T Aggies are 0-1, Georgia State Panthers are 0-0. The book has it Georgia State Panthers -29.5, O/U 61.5. Kalshi is paying 96 cents on Georgia State Panthers. ESPN+ from Center Parc Stadium. UTEP Miners at number 10 Oklahoma Sooners, Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET. UTEP Miners are 0-0, Oklahoma Sooners are 0-0. The book has it Oklahoma Sooners -40.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Oklahoma Sooners. SECN+ from Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK). Long Island University Sharks at Kansas Jayhawks, Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET. Long Island University Sharks are 0-1, Kansas Jayhawks are 0-0. The book has it Kansas Jayhawks -42.5, O/U 54.5. ESPNU from David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans, Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET. Toledo Rockets are 0-0, Michigan State Spartans are 0-0. The book has it Michigan State Spartans -10, O/U 46.5. Kalshi is paying 78 cents on Michigan State Spartans. FS1 from Spartan Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is UTEP @ Oklahoma. UTEP Miners at number 10 Oklahoma Sooners, Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET. UTEP Miners are 0-0, Oklahoma Sooners are 0-0. The book has it Oklahoma Sooners -40.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Oklahoma Sooners. SECN+ from Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK). Across 6 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 87 cents, and 4 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles: market 57 cents on EMU, CutbackPredict fair value 59 cents. That is 1 cents.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5266.50 against a five thousand dollar start, $5266.50 of that sitting in cash. 6 closed tickets, 6 of them green, realized +$266.50. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. Utah Utes YES on Utah Utes vs Idaho Vandals, in at 86 cents, won for +$42.00. Minnesota Golden Gophers YES on Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Eastern Illinois Panthers, in at 90 cents, won for +$20.00. Missouri Tigers YES on Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions, in at 88 cents, won for +$30.00. Colorado Buffaloes YES on Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Colorado Buffaloes, in at 46 cents, won for +$108.00. UCF Knights YES on UCF Knights vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats, in at 93 cents, won for +$10.50. That's 6 and 0 graded, +$266.50 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

Model board — CutbackPredict fair value vs the market
Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. San José St @ E Michigan: market has Eastern Michigan Eagles at 57 cents, my fair value is 59 cents — 1 cent of edge. football power index has Eastern Michigan Eagles at 52 cents, the number implies 65 cents, the market is paying 57 cents. Toledo @ Michigan St: market has Toledo Rockets at 22 cents, my fair value is 23 cents — 0 cents of edge. football power index has Toledo Rockets at 35 cents, the number implies 11 cents, the market is paying 22 cents. No ticket written on these yet — the desk fills when the price comes to my number, not before.

The classroom — Closing line value
Classroom time. Closing line value. The sharpest scoreboard in this game isn't wins and losses — it's whether you consistently bought a contract for less than where it closed at kickoff. Beat the close over a season and you're beating the market. Everything I do is graded against that closing price, not against the final score.

The classroom — Implied probability
Classroom time. Today's term is implied probability. A Kalshi contract pays one dollar if the event happens, zero if it doesn't — so a price of forty cents literally means the market thinks there's a forty percent chance. If your own number is fifty, and you can buy at forty, you're buying a dollar bill for forty cents of risk. That gap between your number and the price is the whole job.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Trade idea — EMU — San José St @ E Michigan
Here is the one trade idea off today's board, spelled out so you can run it yourself. The market is 57 cents on EMU in San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles, and CutbackPredict fair value is 59 cents. Entry trigger: a resting limit bid at 53 cents — I do not pay up, the price comes to me. Stop is 45 cents, a hard exit, no debate. Target is 61 cents, which is fair value plus a couple of cents of drift. Sizing: one percent of a $5266.50 bankroll, $52.66 of risk, roughly 6 contracts at that stop distance. Invalidation: a starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against the side, or the contract trading through 45 cents before kickoff. Any of those and the order comes off the board.

Watchlist — Games I'm not betting
Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. number 7 Miami Hurricanes at Stanford Cardinal, Fri, Sep 4, 9:00 PM ET. Miami Hurricanes are 0-0, Stanford Cardinal are 1-0. The book has it Miami Hurricanes -24.5, O/U 48.5. ESPN from Stanford Stadium. Fresno State Bulldogs at number 14 USC Trojans, Fri, Sep 4, 9:00 PM ET. Fresno State Bulldogs are 0-0, USC Trojans are 1-0. The book has it USC Trojans -22.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 94 cents on USC Trojans. FOX from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

Results — Finals from the last 48 hours
Recaps — these are done, nothing to bet here, this is film study. Idaho Vandals 14, Utah Utes 66, final. Devon Dampier threw for three touchdowns, Wayshawn Parker had the first three-touchdown game of his career and No. 21 Utah routed Idaho 66-14 coach Morgan Scalley's regular-season debut. Stat leaders: Devon Dampier (UTAH) — 13/18, 176 YDS, 3 TD; LaMarcus Bell (UTAH) — 7 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD; Braden Pegan (UTAH) — 4 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD. How it closed: Q4 9:13 — Steve Chavez-Soto 5 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick) (14-59) Then Q4 1:04 — LaMarcus Bell 34 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick) (14-66). Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 14, Missouri Tigers 54, final. Austin Simmons threw for 252 yards and four touchdowns in a Missouri debut that lasted less than a half, and the No. 25 Tigers rolled to a season-opening 54-14 victory over Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Thursday night. Stat leaders: Austin Simmons (MIZ) — 17/19, 252 YDS, 4 TD; Jamal Roberts (MIZ) — 13 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD; Donovan Olugbode (MIZ) — 8 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD. How it closed: Q4 6:13 — David Brewer IV 16 Yd pass from Jack Schierholz (Trey Glymph Kick) (14-47) Then Q4 3:49 — Preston Hatfield 9 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick) (14-54). Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 6, UCF Knights 73, final. Stat leaders: Alonza Barnett III (UCF) — 11/18, 158 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT; Duke Watson (UCF) — 7 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD; Josh Derry (UCF) — 3 REC, 45 YDS. How it closed: Q4 14:56 — Rocco Marriott 1 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick) (0-73) Then Q4 0:00 — Kobe Stewart 8 Yd pass from Joel Morris (6-73). Massachusetts Minutemen 37, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 21, final. Pop Watson III passed for 197 yards and three touchdowns as UMass ended a 16-game losing streak with a 37-21 win over Rutgers in the season-opener for both teams on Thursday night. Stat leaders: Dylan Lonergan (RUTG) — 16/29, 242 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT; Antwan Raymond (RUTG) — 14 CAR, 42 YDS; KJ Duff (RUTG) — 9 REC, 196 YDS, 3 TD. How it closed: Q4 4:27 — Curtis Kimmons IV 17 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick) (37-14) Then Q4 1:57 — KJ Duff 6 Yd pass from AJ Surace (Dane Pizzaro Kick) (37-21). Those results go straight back into the CutbackPredict model for the next slate.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $5266.50 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public paper bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Thursday, September 3 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5000.00 paper book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Thursday, September 3. 12 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
Here's the board. Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 6:00 PM ET. Massachusetts Minutemen are 0-0, Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-0. The book has it Rutgers Scarlet Knights -28.5, O/U 51.5. Big Ten Network from SHI Stadium. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at UCF Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats are 0-0, UCF Knights are 0-0. The book has it UCF Knights -42.5, O/U 58.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on UCF Knights. ESPN+ from Acrisure Bounce House. Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Akron Zips are 0-0, Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 0-0. The book has it Wake Forest Demon Deacons -24.5, O/U 48.5. Kalshi is paying 96 cents on Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Atlantic Coast Conference Network from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Merrimack Warriors at Delaware Blue Hens, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Merrimack Warriors are 0-1, Delaware Blue Hens are 0-0. The book has it Delaware Blue Hens -28.5, O/U 55.5. Kalshi is paying 98 cents on Delaware Blue Hens. ESPN+ from Delaware Stadium. West Georgia Wolves at Kennesaw State Owls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. West Georgia Wolves are 0-1, Kennesaw State Owls are 0-0. The book has it Kennesaw State Owls -22.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 95 cents on Kennesaw State Owls. ESPN+ from Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium. UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. UAlbany Great Danes are 1-0, Buffalo Bulls are 0-0. The book has it BUF -18.5, O/U 48.5. ESPN+ from Broadview Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is AR-Pine Bluff @ Missouri. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it Missouri Tigers -54.5, O/U 61.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Missouri Tigers. Southeastern Conference Network from Memorial Stadium. Across 10 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 91 cents, and 8 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls: market 89 cents on BUFF, CutbackPredict fair value 95 cents. That is 6 cents.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5000.00 against a five thousand dollar start, $5000.00 of that sitting in cash. No tickets closed yet, so realized P and L is flat at zero. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

Model board — CutbackPredict fair value vs the market
Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. UAlbany @ Buffalo: market has Buffalo Bulls at 89 cents, my fair value is 95 cents — 6 cents of edge. football power index has Buffalo Bulls at 92 cents, the number implies 98 cents, the market is paying 89 cents, both reads agree tight. No ticket written on these yet — the desk fills when the price comes to my number, not before.

The classroom — Expected value
Classroom time. Expected value. Multiply your probability by what you win, subtract the other probability times what you lose — if that number is positive, it's a bet worth making; if it's negative, the price is wrong even if the pick feels right. You don't need to win most of your trades. You need the math on your side every single time.

The classroom — A pass is a position
Classroom time. The trade you'll never regret: the pass. Most of the board most days is efficiently priced, and the correct position is flat. Forcing action because you watched a game is how accounts bleed out by a thousand cuts. The desk takes zero when there's no edge — and on this show, the zero counts as a decision, not a failure.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Trade idea — BUFF — UAlbany @ Buffalo
Here is the one trade idea off today's board, spelled out so you can run it yourself. The market is 89 cents on BUFF in UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls, and CutbackPredict fair value is 95 cents. Entry trigger: a resting limit bid at 89 cents — I do not pay up, the price comes to me. Stop is 81 cents, a hard exit, no debate. Target is 97 cents, which is fair value plus a couple of cents of drift. Sizing: one percent of a $5000.00 bankroll, $50.00 of risk, roughly 6 contracts at that stop distance. Invalidation: a starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against the side, or the contract trading through 81 cents before kickoff. Any of those and the order comes off the board.

Watchlist — Games I'm not betting
Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it Missouri Tigers -54.5, O/U 61.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Missouri Tigers. Southeastern Conference Network from Memorial Stadium. Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Colorado Buffaloes are 0-0, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 0-0. The book has it Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -6.5, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 70 cents on Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. ESPN from Bobby Dodd Stadium. Eastern Illinois Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Eastern Illinois Panthers are 1-0, Minnesota Golden Gophers are 0-0. The book has it Minnesota Golden Gophers -42.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Minnesota Golden Gophers. Peacock from Huntington Bank Stadium. Idaho Vandals at number 21 Utah Utes, Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET. Idaho Vandals are 0-1, Utah Utes are 0-0. The book has it Utah Utes -35.5, O/U 57.5. Kalshi is paying 99 cents on Utah Utes. ESPNU from Rice-Eccles Stadium. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $5000.00 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public paper bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Wednesday, September 2 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5000.00 paper book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Wednesday, September 2. 12 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
Here's the board. Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 6:00 PM ET. Massachusetts Minutemen are 0-0, Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-0. The book has it Rutgers Scarlet Knights -28.5, O/U 51.5. Big Ten Network from SHI Stadium. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at UCF Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats are 0-0, UCF Knights are 0-0. The book has it UCF Knights -42.5, O/U 59.5. ESPN+ from Acrisure Bounce House. Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Akron Zips are 0-0, Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 0-0. The book has it Wake Forest Demon Deacons -24.5, O/U 48.5. Atlantic Coast Conference Network from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Merrimack Warriors at Delaware Blue Hens, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Merrimack Warriors are 0-1, Delaware Blue Hens are 0-0. The book has it Delaware Blue Hens -28.5, O/U 55.5. ESPN+ from Delaware Stadium. West Georgia Wolves at Kennesaw State Owls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. West Georgia Wolves are 0-1, Kennesaw State Owls are 0-0. The book has it Kennesaw State Owls -23.5, O/U 51.5. ESPN+ from Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium. UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. UAlbany Great Danes are 1-0, Buffalo Bulls are 0-0. The book has it BUF -18.5, O/U 48.5. ESPN+ from Broadview Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is AR-Pine Bluff @ Missouri. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it Missouri Tigers -54.5, O/U 60.5. Southeastern Conference Network from Memorial Stadium. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. The widest gap my model shows is UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls: market 89 cents on BUFF, CutbackPredict fair value 95 cents. That is 6 cents.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5000.00 against a five thousand dollar start, $5000.00 of that sitting in cash. No tickets closed yet, so realized P and L is flat at zero. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

Model board — CutbackPredict fair value vs the market
Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. UAlbany @ Buffalo: market has Buffalo Bulls at 89 cents, my fair value is 95 cents — 6 cents of edge. football power index has Buffalo Bulls at 92 cents, the number implies 98 cents, the market is paying 89 cents, both reads agree tight. No ticket written on these yet — the desk fills when the price comes to my number, not before.

Trade idea — BUFF — UAlbany @ Buffalo
Here is the one trade idea off today's board, spelled out so you can run it yourself. The market is 89 cents on BUFF in UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls, and CutbackPredict fair value is 95 cents. Entry trigger: a resting limit bid at 89 cents — I do not pay up, the price comes to me. Stop is 81 cents, a hard exit, no debate. Target is 97 cents, which is fair value plus a couple of cents of drift. Sizing: one percent of a $5000.00 bankroll, $50.00 of risk, roughly 6 contracts at that stop distance. Invalidation: a starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against the side, or the contract trading through 81 cents before kickoff. Any of those and the order comes off the board.

Watchlist — Games I'm not betting
Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it Missouri Tigers -54.5, O/U 60.5. Southeastern Conference Network from Memorial Stadium. Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Colorado Buffaloes are 0-0, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 0-0. The book has it Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -6.5, O/U 50.5. ESPN from Bobby Dodd Stadium. Eastern Illinois Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Eastern Illinois Panthers are 1-0, Minnesota Golden Gophers are 0-0. The book has it Minnesota Golden Gophers -42.5, O/U 51.5. Peacock from Huntington Bank Stadium. Idaho Vandals at number 21 Utah Utes, Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET. Idaho Vandals are 0-1, Utah Utes are 0-0. The book has it Utah Utes -34.5, O/U 57.5. ESPNU from Rice-Eccles Stadium. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $5000.00 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. This is a public paper bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.