CutbackPredict Daily Edge Show

Built Tuesday, September 1 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5000.00 paper book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Tuesday, September 1. 12 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
Here's the board. Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 6:00 PM ET. Massachusetts Minutemen are 0-0, Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-0. The book has it Rutgers Scarlet Knights -28.5, O/U 51.5. Big Ten Network from SHI Stadium. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at UCF Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats are 0-0, UCF Knights are 0-0. The book has it UCF Knights -42.5, O/U 59.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on UCF Knights. ESPN+ from Acrisure Bounce House. Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Akron Zips are 0-0, Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 0-0. The book has it Wake Forest Demon Deacons -24.5, O/U 48.5. Kalshi is paying 95 cents on Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Atlantic Coast Conference Network from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Merrimack Warriors at Delaware Blue Hens, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Merrimack Warriors are 0-1, Delaware Blue Hens are 0-0. The book has it Delaware Blue Hens -28.5, O/U 55.5. Kalshi is paying 98 cents on Delaware Blue Hens. ESPN+ from Delaware Stadium. West Georgia Wolves at Kennesaw State Owls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. West Georgia Wolves are 0-1, Kennesaw State Owls are 0-0. The book has it Kennesaw State Owls -23.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 96 cents on Kennesaw State Owls. ESPN+ from Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium. UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. UAlbany Great Danes are 1-0, Buffalo Bulls are 0-0. The book has it BUF -24.5, O/U 48.5. ESPN+ from Broadview Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is AR-Pine Bluff @ Missouri. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it Missouri Tigers -54.5, O/U 60.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Missouri Tigers. Southeastern Conference Network from Memorial Stadium. Across 10 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 91 cents, and 8 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles: market 59 cents on EMU, CutbackPredict fair value 59 cents. That is 0 cents.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5000.00 against a five thousand dollar start, $5000.00 of that sitting in cash. No tickets closed yet, so realized P and L is flat at zero. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

Model board — CutbackPredict fair value vs the market
Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. San José St @ E Michigan: market has Eastern Michigan Eagles at 59 cents, my fair value is 59 cents — 0 cents of edge. football power index has Eastern Michigan Eagles at 53 cents, the number implies 65 cents, the market is paying 59 cents. Colorado @ Georgia Tech: market has Colorado Buffaloes at 31 cents, my fair value is 31 cents — 0 cents of edge. football power index has Colorado Buffaloes at 42 cents, the number implies 20 cents, the market is paying 31 cents. No ticket written on these yet — the desk fills when the price comes to my number, not before.

Trade idea — EMU — San José St @ E Michigan
Here is the one trade idea off today's board, spelled out so you can run it yourself. The market is 59 cents on EMU in San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles, and CutbackPredict fair value is 59 cents. Entry trigger: a resting limit bid at 53 cents — I do not pay up, the price comes to me. Stop is 45 cents, a hard exit, no debate. Target is 61 cents, which is fair value plus a couple of cents of drift. Sizing: one percent of a $5000.00 bankroll, $50.00 of risk, roughly 6 contracts at that stop distance. Invalidation: a starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against the side, or the contract trading through 45 cents before kickoff. Any of those and the order comes off the board.

Watchlist — Games I'm not betting
Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it Missouri Tigers -54.5, O/U 60.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Missouri Tigers. Southeastern Conference Network from Memorial Stadium. Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Colorado Buffaloes are 0-0, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 0-0. The book has it Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -6.5, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 70 cents on Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. ESPN from Bobby Dodd Stadium. Eastern Illinois Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Eastern Illinois Panthers are 1-0, Minnesota Golden Gophers are 0-0. The book has it Minnesota Golden Gophers -42.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Minnesota Golden Gophers. Peacock from Huntington Bank Stadium. Idaho Vandals at number 21 Utah Utes, Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET. Idaho Vandals are 0-1, Utah Utes are 0-0. The book has it Utah Utes -35.5, O/U 57.5. Kalshi is paying 99 cents on Utah Utes. ESPNU from Rice-Eccles Stadium. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $5000.00 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. This is a public paper bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Monday, August 31 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $5000.00 paper book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Monday, August 31. 12 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
Here's the board. Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 6:00 PM ET. Massachusetts Minutemen are 0-0, Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-0. The book has it RUTG -28.5, O/U 51.5. BTN from SHI Stadium. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at UCF Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats are 0-0, UCF Knights are 0-0. The book has it UCF -42.5, O/U 57.5. ESPN+ from Acrisure Bounce House. Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Akron Zips are 0-0, Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 0-0. The book has it WAKE -24.5, O/U 48.5. ACC Network from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Merrimack Warriors at Delaware Blue Hens, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Merrimack Warriors are 0-1, Delaware Blue Hens are 0-0. The book has it DEL -27.5, O/U 55.5. ESPN+ from Delaware Stadium. West Georgia Wolves at Kennesaw State Owls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. West Georgia Wolves are 0-1, Kennesaw State Owls are 0-0. The book has it KENN -23.5, O/U 51.5. Prediction market is paying 15 cents on Kennesaw State Owls. ESPN+ from Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium. UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. UAlbany Great Danes are 1-0, Buffalo Bulls are 0-0. The book has it BUF -24.5, O/U 48.5. ESPN+ from Broadview Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $5000.00 against a five thousand dollar start, $5000.00 of that sitting in cash. No tickets closed yet, so realized P and L is flat at zero. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

Model board — CutbackPredict fair value vs the market
Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. Colorado @ Georgia Tech: market has COLO at 30 cents, my fair value is 31 cents — 1 cents of edge. FPI has COLO at 42c, the number implies 20c, the market is paying 30c. San José St @ E Michigan: market has SJSU at 39 cents, my fair value is 40 cents — 1 cents of edge. FPI has SJSU at 48c, the number implies 32c, the market is paying 39c. No ticket written on these yet — the desk fills when the price comes to my number, not before.

Watchlist — Games I'm not betting
Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it MIZ -54.5, O/U 60.5. SEC Network from Memorial Stadium. Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Colorado Buffaloes are 0-0, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 0-0. The book has it GT -6.5, O/U 50.5. ESPN from Bobby Dodd Stadium. Eastern Illinois Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Eastern Illinois Panthers are 1-0, Minnesota Golden Gophers are 0-0. The book has it MINN -42.5, O/U 51.5. Peacock from Huntington Bank Stadium. Idaho Vandals at number 21 Utah Utes, Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET. Idaho Vandals are 0-1, Utah Utes are 0-0. The book has it UTAH -34.5, O/U 57.5. ESPNU from Rice-Eccles Stadium. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

Results — Finals from the last 48 hours
Recaps — these are done, nothing to bet here. Memphis Tigers 27, UNLV Rebels 21, final. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 27, Stanford Cardinal 37, final. New Mexico State Aggies 17, Florida State Seminoles 34, final. Sacramento State Hornets 17, Eastern Michigan Eagles 28, final. Jacksonville State Gamecocks 7, North Dakota State Bison 33, final. Those results go straight back into the model for the next slate.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $5000.00 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. This is a public paper bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.