Stories we're following this morning at Progress Texas:

Drama building for the special session, as Democrats consider breaking quorum to block a Trump-ordered redistricting scheme - including : https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/us/politics/texas-redistricting-trump.html

...Ken Paxton is threatening to "hunt down" any Democrats fleeing the session, while the plan itself could result in a "dummymander": https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/15/texas-democrats-redistricting-response-trump-republican-five-seats/?_bhlid=f8b2bec379355a332431cf659f421e931ee30532

...A closer look at a potential "dummymander" shows that as it stands, safe blue districts are safer than safe red districts in Texas, making a weakening of those red districts a hazardous prospect: https://prospect.org/politics/2025-07-16-texas-redistricting-maneuver-may-harm-republicans/

...The only real swing seats left in Texas are in the Rio Grande Valley, due to a surprising swing to Trump last year - no surprise, the cancellation of the RGV's biggest annual public health event due to Trump budget cuts: https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/16/texas-rio-grande-valley-border-health-federal-cuts/

...Ahead of all of this, Ken Paxton has launched an investigation into alleged non-citizen voting in Harris and several other counties: https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/voting/2025/07/15/526434/texas-attorney-generals-office-opens-investigation-into-allegations-of-noncitizens-voting-in-harris-county/

Propublica finds great disparity between claims by Kerr County officials that the July 4 flood couldn't have been predicted, and long oral and written histories that more or less do exactly that: https://www.propublica.org/article/texas-floods-oral-histories

...Polling shows that most Americans believe that the death toll from the flood could have been much less severe if government officials had been better prepared: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5403144-poll-flood-deaths-texas/

Republican Kerr County officials, under scrutiny due to the flood, are experiencing an unfortunate work hazard that's become familiar to Democratic leaders in bigger cities - death threats: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/texas-officials-death-threats-flash-flooding_n_68766208e4b0eefef0c4f62c

...Those same officials, at their first meeting after the flood, acknowledge that the actual number of missing people remains uncertain: https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2025/07/14/death-threats-and-uncertainty-over-total-number-of-victims-key-takeaways-from-kerr-county-commissioners-court/

The family that owns Camp Mystic admits that the supervising owner Dick Eastland, who himself perished in the flood, didn't start evacuating kids from near the river until 46 minutes after receiving an emergency flood alert: https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/camp-mystic-evacuation-delayed-despite-warning-20770025.php

...Those phone alerts, due to their frequency, similarity between situations, and typical long distance from the emergency itself, have become too easy for Texans to ignore or even turn off: https://www.keranews.org/texas-news/2025-07-15/texas-flood-alert-warning-phone

Several campaign announcements today, including Dallas State Senator Nathan Johnson, who becomes the first Democrat to announce a run for Attorney General: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/nathan-johnson-texas-attorney-general-20766914.php

...Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott announces a repeat run against MAGA clown Troy Nehls in the 22nd Congressional District: https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/2025/07/14/526241/marquette-greene-scott-who-challenged-rep-troy-nehls-in-2024-announces-bid-for-congressional-district-22/

...And ultra-MAGA Conroe State Rep. Steve Toth issues a primary challenge against GOP incumbent Congressman Dan Crenshaw in Congressional District 2: https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/15/steve-toth-dan-crenshaw-texas-republican-primary-congress/