In the second episode of this two part series, Øptimus co-founder and Data Science Director for Decision Desk HQ Scott Tranter joins Ron Steslow to talk about data science, polling, and modeling

To unlock more episodes, visit: https://politicology.com/plus

(00:59) The non-response bias and how data scientists must deal with it 

(02:55) The decrease in response rates over time

(10:47) Likely vs eligible voters in polls and how to predict who’s likely to vote

(15:55) Finding respondents to fill cohorts 

(28:05 ) Innovations in data science

(31:14) The numbers Scott is watching

My conversation with Mike Madrid about Latino Voting Trends: https://link.chtbl.com/CgkltIhG

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https://twitter.com/stranter

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

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Journalist Izabella Kaminska (The Blind Spot, Financial Times, POLITICO Europe) joins Host Ron Steslow for a wide-ranging discussion about what the war with Iran will mean for the global economy, especially America, long after the shooting slows down.

They begin with the immediate shockwaves of the temporary ceasefire and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping chokepoint that remains politically controlled even if technically “open.”

Then, Izabella unpacks the end of the decades-long “peace dividend” underwritten by American power—and what values inform the partnerships forging the new order replacing it.

Finally, they explore the logic and progress of the Trump administration’s strategy to restructure the dollar.

In Politicology+ they examine one of the biggest assumptions behind the AI boom: that it will generate enough growth to justify the enormous capital being poured into it, and how much that growth truly matters.

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In this two part series, Øptimus co-founder and Data Science Director for Decision Desk HQ Scott Tranter joins Ron Steslow to talk about data science, polling, and modeling

To unlock more episodes, visit: https://politicology.com/plus

(01:00) The role of a data scientist on a campaign 

(04:20) What message testing is and how it’s used

(11:15) Understanding voters you need to persuade and voters you need to turn out

(15:16) Explaining sampling 

(34:36) Polling vs modeling

(37:15) Why pollsters choose the cohorts they do

Follow Scott and Ron on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/stranter

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

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Susan Del Percio (Crisis Communications Expert) joins Host Ron Steslow for a wide-ranging conversation about one of the most fundamental questions in American life: who gets to be an American, and who gets to decide?

They begin with the Supreme Court oral arguments over Donald Trump’s executive order attempting to end birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants and some temporary legal residents.

They then turn to the controversial SAVE Act, a proposed voter registration and election security measure that would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote.

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Send your questions and ideas to [email protected] or leave a voicemail at ‪(703) 239-3068‬

Follow this week’s panel on X (formerly Twitter):

https://x.com/RonSteslow

https://x.com/DelPercioS

Related Reading: 

ScotusBlog - Supreme Court appears likely to side against Trump on birthright citizenship - SCOTUSblog

Axios - SAVE America Act becomes catch-all for Trump's election demands: Here's what's actually in it

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Host Ron Steslow welcomes Mike Brock, CEO of TBD, a subsidiary of Block Inc. (formerly Square), the financial technology firm led by Twitter founder Jack Dorsey.

The Internet is dominated by massive, corporate walled gardens like Google, Facebook, and Twitter (now X), where centralized control makes their users (us!) vulnerable to censorship and manipulation.

In this episode, we explore how the movement to decentralize technology empowers individuals, protects against corporate and government abuse, and addresses real problems in finance and social media.

We’ll also discuss how decentralized technology can enhance financial access and freedom, bypassing intermediaries and censorship, and shifting power from financial corporations to individuals.

Finally, we turn to the political landscape, focusing on the Democratic party’s approach to decentralized technology and early signs it may be changing.

Segments to look forward to:

(04:45) Mike’s background 

(10:50) Empowering individuals through decentralized finance and identity 

(15:45) Building infrastructure for a decentralized future 

(19:10) The potential of decentralized identity 

(29:49) The importance of Bitcoin’s decentralization 

(31:31) Financial Access and Freedom 

(34:27) Preserving agency 

(44:44) Changing the balance of power 

(50:54) The varied stance of the Democratic party

Follow Ron and Mike on X (formerly Twitter):

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

https://x.com/brockm

Email your questions to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at ‪(202) 455-4558‬

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Why are essays resonating again in this moment? And what does it mean when writers, not just journalists or politicians, start helping people make sense of America in real time?

Guest Host Mike Madrid sits down with Robert Arnold (writer, speaker, and activist) for a wide-ranging conversation about the resurgence of the essay, the responsibility of artists and writers in a fractured political age, and why long-form thinking still matters in an era shaped by algorithms, cable-news conflict, and shrinking attention spans.

Check out Robert’s Substack: https://bit.ly/4uxo8MS

Check out Mike’s Substack: https://greattransformation.substack.com/

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James Kirchick joins Ron Steslow to discuss his book Secret City: The Hidden History of Gay Washington

(01:55) Why he wrote the book

(06:43) The interwoven political history and gay history in Washington

(14:33) The melting pot of the gay community and why it was seen as a  threat

(19:55) The trope that whatever is bad must be gay

(31:51) The Lavender Scare 

(35:53) The tension between the gay  loyal foot soldiers of Ronald Reagan and courting the religious right 

(49:00) What was challenging about writing the book 

You should read Secret City: The Hidden History of Gay Washington: http://bit.ly/3wgiORk

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Ron Steslow is joined by Hagar Chemali (Fmr. spokesperson for the U.S. Mission to the UN) for a wide-ranging conversation on the war in Iran, the confusion surrounding the Trump administration’s goals, and its vision for the United States in the world.

Then, in Politicology+, Marc Polymeropoulos joins to discuss the explosive new reporting about the CIA’s coverup of Anomalous Health Incidents—also known as Havana Syndrome—and the dangerous classified weapon that causes them.

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Send your questions and ideas to [email protected] or leave a voicemail at ‪(703) 239-3068‬

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https://x.com/HagarChemali

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Hagar Chemali and Marc Polymeropoulos join Ron Steslow to discuss the explosive new reporting about the CIA’s coverup of Anomalous Health Incidents—also known as Havana Syndrome—and the dangerous classified weapon that causes them.

They break down what the latest investigations reveal: evidence that there's a device that could cause these symptoms, growing questions about whether the government tried to discredit victims, and why these revelations could force a broader reckoning inside the intelligence community. 

Marc reflects on the personal toll of the saga, the “moral injury” of feeling abandoned by former colleagues, and why accountability matters now.

Related Reading: 

War on the Rocks - We Were Right About Havana Syndrome

The Insider - Inside the CIA’s attempt to make Havana Syndrome disappear

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Even after historic civil rights progress over the last sixty years, there’s no denying that certain groups of people still face real, serious, and even systemic discrimination.

In pursuit of justice, many well-meaning activists have made identity central to their cause—arguing, for example, that in order to right wrongs, rules and laws must treat people differently, not equally, depending on the groups to which they belong.

Whatever you think of the term “wokeness,” this new ideology has spread like wildfire through academia, journalism, entertainment, governments, and corporations, radically changing politics, policy, and our public discourse.

But what if they have missed the mark?

What if crusading identitarianism is doing more harm than good?

What if it’s actually chipping away at some of the bedrock principles of our liberal democracy?

If we want honest answers, we have to take these ideas seriously.

In this two part series, host Ron Steslow and Yascha Mounk break down his new book, “The Identity Trap: A Story of Ideas and Power in Our Time.” 

In this second episode, they discuss how the identity synthesis moved from college classrooms, to Tumblr, to newsrooms and workplaces.

They discuss the common “with us or against us” attitudes the identity synthesis produces and the infighting at progressive institutions over identity issues.

They discuss the impact that “cancel culture” can have over trust in scientific research and why the identity synthesis isn’t compatible with liberal democracy.

Segments to look forward to:

(01:14) How the identity synthesis moved from college classrooms, to Tumblr, to the workplace

(10:40) The “with us or against us attitude” that dominates institutions overtaken by the identity synthesis

(16:00) The crippling infighting at progressive institutions over identity issues 

(16:50) The identity synthesis and cancel culture 

(26:32) How cancel culture erodes trust in research and institutions 

(36:21) Why the identity synthesis is incompatible with liberal democracy 

(44:00) How to handle backlash 

Get the book: 

Order a hardcover copy: https://amzn.to/3PKN6pR

Get the audiobook: https://amzn.to/3Ps7CKe

Get it on Kindle: https://amzn.to/3rpAB9B

Follow Ron and Yascha on X (previously Twitter): 

https://twitter.com/RonSteslow

https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk

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