October 28, 2024

Day 1378: "The party of inclusion."

6 minutes

Monday, October 28, 2024

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The presidential election is 8 days away.

📈 Polling Vibes.

Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)

Harris +1.4 points (FiveThirtyEight)

Harris +1.1 points (Nate Silver)

Harris +1.4 points (The Economist)

Trump +0.2 points (RealClearPolitics)

Harris +1.4 points (Split Ticket)

🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

Trump wins 54 times out of 100. Harris wins 48 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump wins 55 times out of 100. Harris wins 46 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)

Trump wins 54 times out of 100. Harris wins 47 times out of 100. (The Economist)

Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)

Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 47 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)

Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 46 times out of 100. (CNalysis)

Trump wins 62 times out of 100. Harris wins 40 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

💡 Poll results depend on pollster choices as much as voters’ decisions. “Simple changes in how to weight a single poll can move the Harris-Trump margin 8 points.” (Good Authority)

1/ Trump called the United States a “garbage can for the world.” At a rally in Arizona on Thursday, Trump said, “We’re a dumping ground. We’re like a – we’re like a garbage can for the world. That’s what, that’s what’s happened to us. We’re like a garbage can.” Then on Friday in Texas, Trump again said: “We’re like a garbage can. First time I said it was last night […] I said it – I don’t know, just came out, ‘garbage can.’ We’re like a garbage can for the rest of the world to dump the people they don’t want.” Trump made the comments as he criticized the Biden-Harris administration for its handling of the border. (ABC News / Politico / New Republic / Vanity Fair /

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