Tuesday, October 29, 2024

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The presidential election is 7 days away.

Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)

Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 46 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)

Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

💡 Poll results depend on pollster choices as much as voters’ decisions. “Simple changes in how to weight a single poll can move the Harris-Trump margin 8 points.” (Good Authority)

1/ Kamala Harris will challenge Americans to “turn the page” on Trump in a speech from the Ellipse in Washington – the same spot where Trump directed his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, to “fight like hell” and march on the Capitol. Harris will step onstage around 7:30 p.m. tonight and, according to the prepared remarks, she’ll detail how “Trump has spent a decade trying to keep the American people divided and afraid of each other. That’s who he is. But America, I am here tonight to say: That’s not who we are.” Harris will frame the election as a choice between two different visions for the country, saying “Trump intends to use the United States military against American citizens who simply disagree with him. People he calls – quote – ‘the enemy from within.’ This is not a candidate for president who is thinking about how to make your life better.” The campaign expects as many as 40,000 people to attend, according to an amended National Park Service permit for the event. (NBC News /

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