1/ Inflation climbed to 9.1% in June compared with a year earlier – the biggest 12-month increase in 40 years. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index jumped 1.3% from May to June, after prices had jumped 1% from April to May. While average wages in June were 5.1% higher than a year ago, energy prices rose by 41.6%, groceries were up 12.2%, and shelter costs were up 5.6% over the year. Further, average inflation-adjusted incomes fell 1% for the month and were down 3.6% from June 2021 to June 2022. The Federal Reserve’s beige book, a summary of the commentary on current economic conditions, reported that businesses “noted concerns over an increased risk of a recession” and that discretionary spending is showing signs of slowing due to higher gasoline and food prices. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points last month – the largest increase since 1994. Accelerated inflation, however, may require the Fed to consider a historic one percentage point rate hike later this month to slow the economy and restrain inflation. “Everything is in play,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said. (Politico / NPR / NBC News / Wall Street Journal / CNBC / Bloomberg / New York Times / Washington Post / CNN / Associated Press)

The inflation numbers are bad, but how bad are they? “Although many economists say inflation will stay at high levels at least through the end of the year, there are some signs that prices could be moderating.” (Vox)

Just how high is the risk of another recession? “Inflation is at a 40-year high. Stock prices are sinking. The Federal Reserve has just made borrowing even costlier. And the economy actually shrank in the first three months of this year.” (Associated Press)

Five charts explaining why inflation is at a 40-year high. “Persistent supply chain backlogs and high consumer demand for goods have kept prices elevated. More recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strained global energy markets and sent the national average for a gallon of gas above $5 last month.” (Washington Post)

7 takeaways from a hot inflation number. (New York Times)

Inflation surge challenges Democr...