Daybreak with Anton

Cash savings balances are near all-time highs. When overall trading is thin (like in August when many investors are on vacation), the market is prone to stall. After Labor Day, school will be in full swing, and most market players will be back at their desks. Will you be ready when investors are back in the driver's seat and cash balances start to roll back into the stock market? Call us if you are not as we welcome the opportunity to assist you and your family.

Institutional investors' biggest fears for the past two years are the impact of rising interest rates due to the Federal Reserve rate hike campaign. Now that a recession appears to be a low probability, investors new fear is if the Fed's will resume more rate hikes if inflation appears to be heating up. Wage growth will be a major factor to rising inflation going into 2024 and investors will be encouraged by reports that employers are slowing their hiring and wage increases. Listen in this Brief our analysis of the labor market and what it may mean to investors going into the fourth quarter.

The stock market has taken a pause since peaking its year high on July 31. Is this the beginning of a more protracted correction or a new buying opportunity? In this Brief we unpack what's we believe investors are doing and a strategy for your portfolio.

Yesterday the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) release their report on the sentiment of small business owners. Although the index is still well below prior year highs, the trend has been positive for the last several months and recovering from lows reached earlier this year. Read in this issue our observation of this report and what it may indicate for the stock market.

Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers. Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season. These executives are evaluating the prospects of consumer spending based on their financial assessment of households. Financially stable consumers spend more and especially when consumers feel "wealthy" based on their view of the economy, equity in their home, and investment account values. We can learn a lot about the prospects of the stock market based on retailers' assessments for the holidays because favorable results for both investors and retailers are dependent on consumer spending. In this Weekly Brief we do a deep dive into what data executives are looking at to potentially derive our own conclusions for the stock market. The hope for all is a Christmas rally due to continued economic grow and everyone enjoying a great holiday season. Merry Christmas!

President Biden signed the SECURE 2.0 on December 29, 2022 that has improved in many ways the ability to save for retirement. However, it is important to monitor tax laws as it concerns your retirement account. The 401(k) retirement plan is not disappearing yet, but the potential of double taxation or worse on retirement distributions can impact your overall returns. Read in this Weekly Brief as we unpack the new laws as it concerns 401(k) and possible changes to your retirement contributions beginning 2024.

The Federal Reserve has recently announced its 10th rate hike in an effort to curb inflation, leading analysts to predict a potential recession in 2023. It's important to remember that recessions are a normal part of economic fluctuations, with the US having experienced 13 since World War II. Attempting to time recessions or markets is impossible, and making significant portfolio moves can be challenging even for professional investors. Jerome Powell's recent comments may suggest a pause in future rate hikes, and overall, we maintain a positive outlook for the US economy and stock market.

In 2014 my wife gave me a gift certificate for an introductory flight. That 45-minute flight sparked a lifelong interest in flying that resulted in obtaining my pilot's license and aviation experiences I had never thought possible. In this personal reflection on pursuing my aviation goals, are many life lessons that will hopefully encourage you to take the first steps in pursuit of your lifelong big audacious goals.

Are the fears and worries in 2022 of a recession in 2023 coming to fruition? In this Weekly Brief we review the challenges the Federal Reserve faced in 2020 and 2021 and why they needed to raise rates as rapidly as possible in 2022. The concern among many analysts and commentators were the rate increases would stifle economic growth and spiral the economy into a recession. Read in this Week our observations of recent economic reports that don't seem to be indication such dire outcomes.

Yesterday's National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) survey on small businesses indicated many key aspects about the health of small businesses. As expected, hiring qualified employees and supply chain disruptions are still a factor for businesses. However, there are several positive indicators about small businesses that represent 99.9% of all businesses in America and have created 66% of all new jobs since 1996. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the report and what it may mean for the stock market.