Daybreak with Anton

Recent economic reports on labor and manufacturing are indicating a slowing but growing economy. In this Weekly Brief we review several reports that together paint a picture of a soft landing of a sustainable and growing economy albeit at a slower pace. The scenario that Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, had hoped would be the case vs the doom and gloom crash landing many analysts predicted last year.

Inventories are dropping for manufacturing and trade companies while rising for retail businesses. A mixed bag of information that may indicate that businesses are still growing while consumers are pinching pockets on their spending. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of these reports and the status of the US stock market.

Consumer sentiment drops, but will it affect spending? Find out why tracking spending habits is a better predictor of the economy than consumer sentiment. Plus, a look at how stimulus dollars and wage increases have impacted household income in 2020 and 2021.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank may not be a systemic issue prevalent in the banking sector. However, there are challenges in the credit and lending industry due to the rapid rise of interest rates in 2022 and into 2023. Read in this article an in-depth analysis of the missteps of Silicon Valley Bank that lead to its ultimate demise and what we can learn from this situation.

Yesterday's Factory Orders indicated that consumer spending remains in positive up trend and a good start of the year. The US economy remains in a positive trend and more favorable in contrast to Germany's Factory Report also released yesterday.

The doomsayers predicting a recession in late 2022 or in 2023 so far are thankfully incorrect. The US GDP gained momentum in the second half of 2022 and recovered all the declines of the first half to end the year with positive overall gain. Read in this Weekly Brief more evidence we referenced why recession fears may have been overstated and what we see as a likely forecast for 2023.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their monthly housing sales report this morning. The bad news is the report indicated a 12th consecutive monthly decline in home sales with the good news the decline may be slowing. In fact, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was quoted as saying that he forecast the potential bottoming of home sales with the potential to see increase activity going into the spring.

Analysts have been forecasting a hard landing for the economy in 2023 due to many concerns that include the aggressive rate hike policy by the Federal Reserve. As it turned out, the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy has proven to be more accurate than analyst's projections. In this Brief we review the possibilities of either a soft landing or no landing at all.

Spring and summer always follow winter. No matter how cold or deep the snow, spring is only a few months away. If history is a guide to the future of the US economy, this period of world pandemic, supply chain disruptions, hyperinflation, and war, will also fade away and lead into the next US bull market and economic growth trend. Read in this Weekly Brief or listen to our podcast as we review key similar challenging times in US history and how the economy not only survived but thrived in subsequent years.

The advantage of being at the bottom of market cycles is the potential for significant gains during the recovery can be terrific. In this issue we outline several stocks bouncing back big time – 30% to 40% - so far this year. Is this the beginning of a new uptrend or a "dead cat bounce" when stocks experience a short term rally only to reverse to new lows?