Daybreak with Anton

The Federal Reserve started a rate hike policy on March 17, 2022, that continued throughout the year, targeting to lower inflation based on several indicators. Investors are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a recession. Retail sales have declined in the past two months, which suggests that the advance estimate for third-quarter GDP will be lower than previously thought, with personal consumption expenditures less supportive of growth. Additionally, the housing market has seen a decline in prices and transactions, which typically represents the largest expenditure of consumer spending, and the relevance of this is that it may impact the US economy, stock market, and corporate profits.

Another year over and a new year starting. If there is any time to get ahead of your schedule and plan and take proactive steps towards your goals, it is now. In this Brief, we discuss some real-life lessons learned on the SEC Football field that turned the tables on Alabama's Nick Saban.

Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, wants to reduce inflation by raising interest rates. This is important to investors and affects industries like housing and energy. The Fed slowed its rate hike plan, recognizing the impact on inflation. A professor suggests that inflation may already be at the target rate.

With a new year is new hope for an improving stock market. In this Weekly Brief we review many of the anomalies that impacted almost all sectors of the economy that created unusual price swings. Most investors forget that the pandemic and subsequent government restrictions on society occurred during a strong economy that appears to still be in tack three years later. Most certainly, the US economy is recovering faster than most other countries. We look at how prices fluctuated during 2020 and 2021 that set up a needed correction that may provide insight to how markets may recover in 2023.

DFTF or "Don't Fight the Feds" has been the theme for investors this year. The steady decline of the stock market has been matched by the aggressive rate hike policy of the Federal Reserve. However, investors are slowly renewing their hope that on December 14 Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, will give the message investors have been waiting all year for. In this Weekly Brief we decipher the impact the Federal Reserve is having on the stock market and more importantly what other factors are in place to ignite the next market rally once the Federal Reserve begins to slow their rate hike policy.

Mixed news this week as factory orders continue to increase with one of the longest consecutive run of monthly increases since 1992. However, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index dropped below 50 to 49 yesterday based on surveys among purchasing managers. A reading below 50 would indicate the potential of a decline in future of new orders. No doubt, business leaders are taking notice of rising interest rates and prices and implementing precautions should the US economy slow faster than projected. All this to say, is the most anticipated recession forecasted for 2023 indicates a low bar of expectations for next year that may result in pleasant surprises should conditions not be as dire as analysts' project.

In this week's episode, Anton shares some stories in his recent months and reasons he is thankful - also, why you might be too!

Over the past 30 years of managing investor portfolios, the theater of financial markets has produced some of the most interesting and sometimes comical characters of Wall Street. Most importantly is how we can learn from them and identify who we should listen to for advice and those simply to watch and listen. In this Weekly Brief, we feature the fun of this theater from the opening act early each morning and the willing participants of Wall Streeters, all of us investors. Its great entertainment this financial theater and for many a terrific way to grow your investment account.

The US continues to improve in nearly every industry sector and none better than the record 23 consecutive monthly gain in factory and manufacturing production. The Federal Reserve is causing a re-balance of economy with many long term benefits to investors. Listen in this Weekly Brief our positive analysis and forecast of the stock market and economy.