Deal Flow Friday

David just returned from NMHC — the National Multifamily Housing Conference — and breaks down what the conference really revealed about the state of the multifamily market. Beyond panels and presentations, NMHC is about sentiment. This episode dives into the vibes, the psychology, and the quiet shifts happening behind the scenes.

2025 was a year full of near-misses: deals that almost traded, distress that never fully cleared, and pricing confusion driven as much by communication breakdowns as by valuation gaps. But something feels different now. Lenders are stepping back into the process earlier, sellers are more aligned with reality, and off-market executions are returning as a preferred path.

David explores the growing geographic divergence between markets, why macro headlines suddenly feel irrelevant to operators, and how industry fatigue has turned into a kind of stability. The takeaway isn’t hype — it’s discipline. Clean trades over hero trades. Execution over speculation.

This episode frames NMHC as the beginning of a healthier transaction cycle built on realism, alignment, and cautious optimism.

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In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem interviews Zihao Wang, founder of PARES AI, a software designed to streamline the underwriting process for commercial real estate. They discuss Zihao's journey, insights from the Florida Multi-Family Summit, and his contrarian investment strategies in the current real estate market. The conversation also delves into the importance of technology in real estate, particularly how PARES AI aims to enhance efficiency and decision-making for acquisition teams.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Zihao Wang and Paris AI
03:11 What the Florida Multifamily Summit Says About Today’s Market
04:07 Contrarian Investing: Older Vintage vs Newer Assets
06:28 Target Markets for Patient Capital
09:15 Target Sunbelt Submarkets & Strategies 
12:19 Navigating the Carolinas and Secondary Markets
15:17 Would You Still Invest in Los Angeles?
17:50 Supply-Constrained Markets vs Sunbelt Volatility
19:09 The Case for Investing in Atlanta
20:49 Bullish on the Bay today, Can this also happen in LA?
23:19 Introducing PARES AI: Revolutionizing Underwriting Processes
29:10 The Future of PARES AI

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In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with Zach Streit, Founder and President of Priority Capital Advisory, for a wide-ranging conversation on the shifting dynamics of today’s commercial real estate capital markets. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience, Zach breaks down why there is currently more capital than deals, how banks and insurance-backed debt funds are driving spread compression, and what that means for borrowers across the capital stack. The discussion explores why the long-anticipated wave of distress never fully materialized, how capital is now moving from credit and preferred equity back toward common equity, and where fixed-rate versus bridge financing fits in this new environment. Zach also walks through the closing of a $175 million construction and land recapitalization in California, sharing lessons on perseverance, counterparty risk, and relationship-driven dealmaking, before wrapping with insights on “naked brokerage,” building trust, and creating your own luck in a competitive market.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction: Zach Streit (Priority Capital Advisory)
03:12 CREFC Vibe Check: “More capital than deals”
06:08 Debt Funds Folding/Consolidating + Counterparty Risk
07:45 Credit-to-Equity Domino Effect + Capital Moving Up the Stack
12:05 Why Distress/Pref Equity Didn’t Deploy Like Everyone Expected
16:12 Why Acquisition Bridge is Muted (and where bridge is happening)
23:51 Case Study: $175M Santa Maria Construction + Land Recap (Deal Breakdown)
30:56 Creating Your Own Luck in Brokerage
35:26 “Naked Brokerage” Explained + Advice for Young Brokers

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In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem reflects on the past year in multifamily real estate, discussing predictions made for 2025 and how they played out. He emphasizes the importance of iterative reflection in real estate and shares insights on market conditions for 2026, including the potential for seller capitulation and the impact of AI on rental markets, particularly favoring Class B housing.

Chapters

00:00 Celebrating One Year of Deal Flow Friday
03:11 Reflecting on Predictions and Market Trends
07:36 2026 Market Winners: "Category 2 & 3"
16:54 AI Impact to Renters: Class B as the Winner

Episode 37 is a masterclass in what actually drives long-term success in real estate: patience, differentiation, and relationships. This week, we pulled some of the most replayed moments on the show this year to reflect on the lessons learned from 2025, to prepare us for a stronger 2026. 

This episode features valuable lessons from some of the most replayed guests this year: 

Paul Daneshrad - CEO of Starpoint Properties
Alan Lazowski - CEO of LAZ Parking
Joseph Paskov - Senior VP of LaSalle Value Partners
Adrian Berger - Managing Director of Cypress Equity Investments
Garrett Nondorf - Director of Investments at Flagship Capital Partners
Henry Stimler - Executive Managing Director at Newmark, Capital Markets
Aleksey Chernobelskiy - CEO of GP-LP Match
Michael Khalilzad - President of CastleSquare

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In this conversation, David Moghavem and Jake Heller discuss the emergence of AI in commercial real estate, focusing on the creation of the AI for CRE Collective community. They explore the challenges and opportunities presented by AI adoption, emphasizing the importance of data organization, community engagement, and the mindset shift from viewing AI as a luxury to a necessity. The discussion highlights common pain points, the need for collaboration, and the future of AI in enhancing human capabilities within the industry.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to AI for CRE Collective
02:52 The Accidental Community Builder
05:31 Understanding the Need for AI in Real Estate
08:17 Mindset Shift in the Real Estate Industry
11:16 Challenges of Data and Privacy in AI Adoption
13:55 Preparing for the Next Wave of AI
16:44 Community Engagement and Knowledge Sharing
20:21 Identifying Pain Points in Commercial Real Estate Workflows
23:02 Common Pitfalls in AI Adoption
26:35 The Role of AI in Replacing Human Jobs
31:09 Leveraging AI for Enhanced Productivity
38:17 Implementing AI Solutions in Real Estate

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In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem interviews Jeff Gleiberman, president of MG Properties, discussing the multifamily real estate market, investment strategies, and operational challenges. Jeff shares insights on the importance of specialization, market diversification, and the current performance of coastal versus inland markets. He emphasizes the significance of cash flow metrics and the challenges of managing properties in a changing economic landscape. The conversation also touches on the future of the market, the role of self-management, and advice for emerging sponsors in the industry.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction & MG Properties Overview
03:04 What the “MG Way” Really Means
04:10 Market Footprint: States, Sub-Markets & Strategy
06:06 Market Performance: Coastal vs Inland Trends
07:30 Pricing Disconnect in Denver & How MG Evaluates It
09:52 Investment Strategies: Balancing New and Older Assets
12:34 Where MG Is Buying Today
14:27 The Basis Plays
15:59 Target Metric of Choice
19:06 2026 Predictions: Seller Capitulation? Or more Extend & Pretend?
21:22 2026 Operational Trends/Headwinds
24:50 MG Properties' 2026 Acquisition/Disposition Goals
26:14 The Case for Self-Management
30:28 Jeff's Advice to Emerging Sponsors trying to Replicate "The MG Model"

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In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David sits down with Enrique Huerta, VP of Acquisitions at Crystal View Capital, to break down his transition from a decade in multifamily to a national platform focused on manufactured housing, self-storage, and industrial outdoor storage. Enrique shares why yield-driven investors are increasingly looking beyond conventional apartments, why manufactured housing offers rare supply constraints and outsized stabilization yields, and how Crystal View’s all-cash strategy gives them a competitive edge in today’s dislocated market. The conversation spans risk factors unique to manufactured housing, the shifting multifamily landscape, distress opportunities emerging across the Sunbelt and West Coast, and both David and Enrique’s predictions heading into 2026—including investor sentiment, inflation pressures, and where they see the best plays in the next cycle.

00:00 Introduction to Enrique Huerta and Crystal View Capital

03:34 Crystal View Capital's Acquisition Strategy

06:27 Understanding Yields in Manufactured Housing vs. Multifamily

09:36 Risks and Hurdles in Manufactured Housing Investments

12:58 Market Dynamics and Barriers to Entry in Manufactured Housing

15:44 Demographics and Delinquency in Manufactured Housing

18:46 Opportunities in Older Vintage Multifamily Assets

21:58 Evaluating Good Deals in Multifamily Investments

27:53 The Future of Multifamily Investments and Market Trends

31:50 Market Dynamics and Cash-Out Strategies

34:49 The All-Cash Advantage in Real Estate

39:15 Investor Sentiment and Predictions for 2026

48:22 Navigating Distress in the Market

52:41 AI's Impact on Real Estate and Market Trends

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David sits down with Chris Urso, Managing Partner of URS Capital Partners, to talk about operating through today’s multifamily reset across the Southeast. They dig into why 2025 has been an “operator’s recession,” how first-ring suburbs in markets like Charlotte, Nashville, Charleston, and Atlanta are best positioned for recovery, and why focusing on gray-collar housing continues to drive stable demand. Chris shares lessons from building a vertically integrated platform, the importance of self-management and team culture, and how tools like Rentana and AI-driven asset management are transforming operations. They also cover capital strategy—how URS has leaned on private investors, navigated a tighter equity landscape, and why the next wave of opportunity may come from pref-equity-driven distress as the market normalizes into 2026.

00:00 Introduction to Multifamily Operations

04:30 Market Insights and Economic Challenges

07:27 Supply and Demand Dynamics in Key Markets

10:29 Investment Strategies in Secondary Markets

13:24 Focus on First Ring Suburbs

17:53 Self-Management and Operational Strategies

27:18 Navigating Third-Party Management vs. Self-Management

33:25 The Importance of Technology in Property Management

37:02 Capital Raising in a Changing Market

47:13 Future Predictions for the Real Estate Market

In this special solo episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem delivers a wide-angle “multi-market monologue,” offering a real-time pulse check on the multifamily landscape as 2025 comes to a close.
He unpacks how Jerome Powell’s decision to end the Fed’s balance sheet runoff marks a key pivot from quantitative tightening to easing liquidity, and what that means for buyers, sellers, and lenders heading into 2026.
David also explores the shifting capital landscape, from private credit compression to the resurgence of institutional platform investments, while introducing a critical underwriting metric for today’s environment: Going-In Yield on Cost, a mark-to-market lens that adjusts for higher delinquencies, concessions, insurance, and deferred maintenance. 
The episode spotlights two contrasting markets — Denver, where oversupply and new landlord regulations are pressuring fundamentals, and the Bay Area, where AI-driven job growth, renewed office momentum, and strong civic leadership are fueling one of the most compelling rebound stories in the country. 
David closes with a forward look at how discipline, creativity, and true partnerships will define the next phase of multifamily investing. 

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the Multifamily Market Monologue
02:31  The Fed’s Announcement & Balance Sheet Runoff Ending
08:29  Seller Behavior: Meeting the Market
13:02 Shifts in Buyer and Seller Dynamics
17:09  Why Don't 7-Cap Deals Pencil? Going-In Yield on Cost.
24:12  Tough Love for Denver: Why the Mile High Market’s Struggling (...for Now)
33:25  Back to the Bay: Tech, Talent, and a Multifamily Revival 

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