Deal Flow Friday

In this episode, David Moghavem sits down with Michael Khalilzad, founder of Castle Square, to discuss the realities of raising equity in today’s market and how creative structuring is unlocking deals. Michael shares why capital is demanding high cash-on-cash yields and strong basis, how he structured a second-loss equity position to overcome investor objections, and why reputation and certainty are driving discounted acquisitions. They dive into ground-up development challenges, co-GP structures with blue-chip developers to unlock financing, and why Michael believes innovative hybrid equity products will be key to getting deals done in this market. If you want real insights on where capital is flowing and how to structure deals creatively, this episode is packed with tactical takeaways. 

Chapters

00:00 Introduction & Podcasting with Sam Zell
07:14 Today’s Capital Markets Reality
10:03 Creative Structures to Get Deals Done
15:26 What Investors Are Looking For Today
18:18 Midwest Six Caps, Below Replacement Cost
21:14 Seller Capitulation is Happening, We Have The Receipts! 
24:54 How To Source Great Deals in This Market
27:48 PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: The Importance of Proper Underwriting
29:48 Underwriting Sponsors
33:58 Deploying Ground Up Construction Capital in An Unfavorable Development Market
36:55 CO-GP Ground Up Development Program
40:21 Loan Guarantee & Credit Enhancement Program
42:34 Advice for Emerging Operators and Capital Raisers
46:14 The Need for Innovative Capital Products

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem sits down with Jared Zeisler, Principal at Capital Solutions, to unpack where capital is (and isn’t) flowing in today’s market. Jared shares why buying below replacement cost remains core to their strategy, why rescue capital isn’t the opportunity it seems without resetting basis, and how Capital Solutions is approaching deals with a “downside first” framework. They discuss why bridge debt is creeping back into deals (and why it still scares them), the real story behind student housing deals they’re buying at half of replacement cost, how their portfolio has held up through rate hikes, what makes a deal actually get capitalized today, and why conviction and downside protection matter more than pro forma upside in this market. If you’re an operator looking to raise equity or an allocator looking to deploy smart capital, this episode is packed with candid insights on underwriting, market cycles, and what it takes to get deals done in 2025. 

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Capital Solutions and Market Overview
03:28 What Gets Funded Today vs. Passed On
07:56 Development Challenges: High Costs, Low Absorption
11:39 Portfolio Performance: Winners, Losers, and Lessons
15:13 Rescue Capital Reality Check
19:03 Does that "Positive Leverage Day One" deal really exist? 
23:01 The Return of Bridge Debt. Did People Not Learn Their Lesson???
28:28 The "Perks" of Multifamily? Government-Backed Leverage
31:39 Investing in Student Housing
36:37 Picking The Right Partner, Especially in a Down Cycle
40:39 Advice for Operators Looking for Equity
44:45 Haven't seen the "Flush Out" of Distress... Yet.

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem speaks with Joe Paskov from Bentall Green Oak about the current state of the real estate investment market. They discuss the challenges and opportunities in various asset classes, the impact of interest rates on investment strategies, and the importance of building strong relationships in the industry. Joe shares insights on BGOs geographic focus, market analysis, AI-driven algorithmic approach to choosing markets, and the dynamics of institutional investors, emphasizing the need for a long-term perspective in navigating the evolving landscape of real estate investing.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction & BGO Overview
03:59 Where’s the Opportunity Now?  ZIRP era vs. Today
12:17 Redemption Clauses & The Liquidity Crunch
16:34 What Will Get BGO Off the Sidelines?
24:16 Geographic Focuses in BGO's Fund Strategies
26:03 Inside BGO’s AI-Driven Decision Making in Market Analysis
33:26 Future Deal Activity and Market Trends
39:33 Building Relationships with Institutional Partners

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In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem speaks with Garrett Nondorf of Flagship Capital, a highly active Middle Market Credit and Equity allocator. They discuss the active deal flow at Flagship, including recent term sheets and the company's approach to investments in steady markets such as the Midwest, dive into the challenges in the Sun Belt, the supply side story within the Pacific Northwest, and operational issues affecting real estate in various geographies. Garrett shares insights on how sponsors can navigate the current market conditions and successfully raise capital.

Chapters

00:00 Intro, 'Stash talk', & LinkedIn Meme Game
02:55 How is Flagship Capital Getting Deals Done?
06:42 Focus on Equity Investments
09:30 Steady-eddy Midwest
16:39 SunBelt Owners Are Starting to Capitulate.
20:46 Operational Challenges in the Market
23:06 Pac-NorthWest, Supply-Side Story
24:50 Challenges in California's Housing Market
26:18 Navigating Investment Committee Challenges
29:32 Identifying Opportunities in Secondary Markets
32:18 Operational Challenges and Cost Stabilization
37:20 Advice for Capital Raising in Today's Market

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In this conversation, Omar Morales and David Moghavem delve into the intricacies of the Miami real estate market, discussing the challenges and opportunities that have emerged in the wake of COVID-19. They explore the evolution of Trion, the impact of tariffs on development, and the importance of understanding local dynamics in order to find value in real estate investments. The discussion also highlights the significance of insurance rates, the emergence of new markets, and the challenges of fundraising in a changing economic landscape.

Chapters

00:00 Intro
00:39 David's Background and Move to Miami
03:03 Navigating Market Dynamics and Opportunities
05:58 The Impact of Immigration on Miami's Growth
08:54 Understanding Supply and Demand in Multifamily
12:09 Challenges in Development and Construction
14:55 The Role of Tariffs in Real Estate
17:51 Investment Strategies and Market Trends
21:01 Fundraising in a Changing Market
24:08 Identifying Hidden Markets and Opportunities

In this episode, David Moghavem speaks with Adrian Berger from Cypress Equity Investments about the current state of the real estate market, the challenges and surprises in lending, and the importance of networking. They discuss the shift in off-market deals, the company's development strategy, and the potential opportunities in self-storage and affordable housing. Adrian shares insights on navigating insurance and operating expenses in LA, as well as the significance of building relationships in the industry.

Chapters

00:00 Intro
01:35 Navigating the Current Market Landscape
04:37 Surprises in Lending and Valuation
07:38 The Shift in Deal Dynamics
10:33 Cypress Equity's Evolution and Strategy
13:26 Co-GP Partnerships and Diversification
16:36 Future Directions and Market Opportunities
21:07 Exploring Market Opportunities and Challenges
24:32 Impact of Local Regulations on Development
27:39 The Role of Long-Term Relationships in Development
30:30 Adjusting Underwriting for Current Market Conditions
32:30 Comparing LA with Other Markets
33:40 Covered Land Plays and Their Benefits
34:39 Investor Sentiment and Market Confidence
35:33 The Future of the Entertainment Industry in LA
37:54 The Ebb and Flow of LA's Market
40:40 Investment Strategies in a Changing Landscape
41:52 Navigating Affordable Housing Challenges
45:14 The Complexity of Building in LA
48:03 Insurance Challenges in Real Estate
49:45 The Importance of Networking in Real Estate

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In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem, Max Sharkansky, and Mitch Paskover discuss the current state of the real estate market, focusing on the impact of tariffs, inflation, interest rates, and investment strategies. They explore how these factors are influencing consumer confidence, lender behavior, and overall market trends. The conversation also delves into geographical investment opportunities and the challenges faced by investors in today's economic climate, concluding with thoughts on future market predictions and operational challenges.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Yearly Recap
02:16 Tariffs and Economic Predictions
04:48 Impact of Tariffs on Multifamily Sector
08:10 Interest Rates and Future Predictions
11:31 Investment Strategies and Market Trends
15:31 "The Party Is Over" In The Midwest
19:28 Long West Coast? Depends Where. 
23:06 Emerging Distress in the Market
28:33 Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics
33:46 Long-Term Perspectives on Real Estate Investments
39:50 Optimism and Future Market Predictions

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem interviews Mike Sroka, founder and CEO of Dealpath, discussing the evolution of PropTech, the impact of economic changes on the real estate market, and the role of AI in enhancing real estate management. They explore how Deal Path has adapted to client needs and the importance of technology in navigating the current market landscape. The conversation also touches on the future of real estate technology and the potential for a rebound in the Bay Area.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Deal Path and PropTech Innovations
03:31 Mike Sroka's Journey and the Birth of Dealpath
09:27 Evolution of the Real Estate Software Landscape
12:48 Navigating CRE Market Changes as a PropTech Company
15:44 The Value of Dealpath in Different Market Conditions
21:42 Adapting to Client Needs and Market Trends
27:52 Leveraging Data for Product Development
31:04 The Role of AI in Real Estate
38:34 Assessing Technology Needs in Real Estate
40:13 Real Estate's Digital Transformation Journey
45:50 The Future of Real Estate in a Tech-Driven Market

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem speaks with Aleksey Chernobelskiy, founder of the GPLP match platform. They discuss the journey of entrepreneurship, the creation of the GPLP match platform, and the importance of connecting general partners (GPs) with limited partners (LPs) in real estate. Aleksey shares insights on leveraging technology, social media strategies, and common pitfalls in GP presentations. The conversation also touches on market insights, asset classes, and advice for LPs navigating investment opportunities.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction
04:19 The GPLP Match Platform: Concept and Creation
05:18 The GP-LP Match Platform
06:50 The People Behind the Deal
10:39 Solution to Managing Deal Flow
13:44 Leveraging Technology to Increase Efficiency
15:20 Social Media Presence & Strategy
18:26 Common Pitfalls in GP Decks
18:32 Navigating Political Risks in Real Estate
20:55 Advice for LPs: Sifting Through Deals
21:20 Aleksey's GP Pet Peeves & Red Flags
24:21 What type of deals is Aleksey Bullish on? 
29:24 Aleksey's Recommendations to LPs 

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem speaks with Greg Rollman, Managing Director at Tryperion Holdings. They discuss insights on contrarian investment strategies in office, retail, and multifamily sectors. Greg shares his contrarian approach to investing in regional malls and emphasizes the importance of in-place operations. The conversation also touches on geographic preferences in investment and the future outlook amidst market uncertainty. Last but not least, David and Greg foreshadow the looming effect on tariffs on commercial real estate, and the impact it will have on the industry.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Background
04:39 Investment Strategies in Office and Retail
15:06 Exploring the Mall Investment Philosophy
20:21 Future Outlook and Market Dynamics
29:12 Future Outlook
33:52 Tariffs effect on CRE