Dealcast: The M&A Podcast

AI implementation and due diligence has drastically shifted in the last two years. M&A processes may have simply asked if a company used AI two years ago, but now due diligence processes in dealmaking go much deeper.

According to Sinan Erhan, a partner and head of UK at OMMAX, commercial diligence in dealmaking has shifted to AI-specific diligence. Erhan joins Mergermarket's executive editor, Lucinda Guthrie, to discuss the disconnect between AI valuations and the reality assessed through the diligence process.

The two delve into what makes a company’s AI usage truly valuable. For instance, whether a company is using AI at the disparate, individual level or whether it is an integral part of the workflow. It is also important to assess whether the company has a defensible moat for their AI services through IP or other practices or if they are simply integrating publicly available agents like Claude or ChatGPT, and whether having proprietary data is enough when it may still have to be cleaned and sorted before applying an algorithm. And although AI may be freeing up hours, can a company explain how they are now optimizing the newly available time?

Beyond what makes a company’s AI story strong in reality, Erhan discusses how firms are using AI to make their research more efficient, assess potential M&A targets, and why that process still requires the human touch. He explains why juniors at firms, and even students, may need to be trained on how to make the right judgement calls on research AI presents to them, as the near future will likely lead to standardization of AI-specific diligence in the dealmaking process.

AI implementation and due diligence has drastically shifted in the last two years. M&A processes may have simply asked if a company used AI two years ago, but now due diligence processes in dealmaking go much deeper.

According to Sinan Erhan, a partner and head of UK at OMMAX, commercial diligence in dealmaking has shifted to AI-specific diligence. Erhan joins Mergermarket's executive editor, Lucinda Guthrie, to discuss the disconnect between AI valuations and the reality assessed through the diligence process.

The two delve into what makes a company’s AI usage truly valuable. For instance, whether a company is using AI at the disparate, individual level or whether it is an integral part of the workflow. It is also important to assess whether the company has a defensible moat for their AI services through IP or other practices or if they are simply integrating publicly available agents like Claude or ChatGPT, and whether having proprietary data is enough when it may still have to be cleaned and sorted before applying an algorithm. And although AI may be freeing up hours, can a company explain how they are now optimizing the newly available time?

Beyond what makes a company’s AI story strong in reality, Erhan discusses how firms are using AI to make their research more efficient, assess potential M&A targets, and why that process still requires the human touch. He explains why juniors at firms, and even students, may need to be trained on how to make the right judgement calls on research AI presents to them, as the near future will likely lead to standardization of AI-specific diligence in the dealmaking process.

In the last couple of years there has been an increase in megacap deals with global exposure. However, despite the growing number of large deals, they have longer timelines and geopolitical factors that make these transactions more complex.

One example of the increased complexity is the jump in foreign investment reviews on megadeals. During 2005-2020, only 11% of megadeals were subject to foreign investment reviews, but from 2021 to 1H26, 40% of megadeals were subject to foreign investment reviews.

Davidson Kempner’s Suzy Gibbons, partner and head of research, and Michael Chiaramonte, partner and deputy head of merger arbitrage, join Mergermarket’s global regulatory editor, Reuben Miller, to discuss their new white paper, Merger Arbitrage: Opportunity in Regulatory Complexity.

The conversation delves into questions like how does complexity create opportunities for investors, how has the change in US administration altered deal activity, how do differing national priorities and security measures play into dealmaking, and why there is “complexity premium"?

While sponsor-related deal volume from the exit perspective is at EUR 132bn so far this year, nearly double the volume in the first half of 2025, deal counts are only up 12%.

Deal momentum is picking up, but it still can be difficult to get a deal over the line in the current environment, according to Kate Gribbon, Investec’s head of financial sponsor coverage.

The effects of SaaSpocalypse or SaaSmageddon are still lingering and dealmakers need to have a strong offensive and defensive strategy when it comes to AI. Diligence also needs to come in at an increasingly early stage in the auction process, according to Gribbon, and relationship-building and trust are core to completing transactions.

In this episode of Dealcast, Gribbon joins John West, Mergermarket’s global commentary editor, to discuss her recent report: The New Rules of Private Equity M&A. The two discuss the three pillars of getting a deal done: proof, process, and price.

The episode delves into how to curate the buyer pool early-on, how to weigh the benefits of getting DPI for LPs quickly or holding onto an asset for the right reasons, and why it’s not realistic to wait for “perfect” market conditions.

“This level of uncertainty has allowed boardrooms to rise above what is happening in the market,” Global Chair of Investment Banking at JPMorgan Anu Aiyengar says.

Rather than being paralysed by geopolitical turmoil, executives have acknowledged they are playing on a constantly changing pitch and doubled down on long-term thinking to simplify their corporate footprints while building growth and resilience, Aiyengar says.

That’s writ large in a record-breaking first half for global M&A, with volume of USD 3.16tn (up 44% year-on-year) – and 78% of that haul involving strategic acquirors.

In this episode of Dealcast, Aiyengar joins John West, Mergermarket’s Global Commentary Editor, to unpack the deal dynamics behind 1H26’s astonishing run and pitching forward to what the rest of 2026 has in store.

Predicting the year will topple 2021 as the most active of all time, Aiyengar provides insight on AI ROI and stock market concentration, the valuation premium afforded to larger companies, private equity exit overhangs and how to execute realisations, and unprecedented “direct engagement” by White House officials in key M&A transactions.

When it comes to corporates opting to embrace audacity, “it’s not scale for scale’s sake; it’s not simplicity for simplicity’s sake – it first needs to chin the bar of being strategic,” Aiyengar argues.

“GPs are being run more like the businesses that they acquire,” said Justin Niessner, associate editor of the Asian Venture Capital Journal.

Consolidation among general partners is on the rise globally. Last year, BlackRock acquired HPS Investment Partners. Before that, the firm also acquired Global Infrastructure Partners in 2024.

Asia is primed for M&A among GP firms, partly due to the prevalence of founder-led firms in Asia and the need for a succession plan.

In this episode of Dealcast, Niessner joins Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the consolidation of GPs in Asia and why GPs and LPs may, or may not, find further integration attractive.

The episode dives into what GPs need to make a transaction successful and to make LPs comfortable, where it is happening in the market, and how the mega-sizing of firms may actually lead to the rise of more independent ones.

“There's no question that in some parts of the market, leverage has stretched significantly, and that's a real issue for some of those portfolios that we see out there,” said Alex Garnier, founding partner at NorthWall Capital.

In this episode Garnier joins Rachel Lewis, Mergermarket’s co-head of news, to discuss the growth of specialist credit in Europe.

NorthWall is an alternative private credit lender that specializes in financing situational complexity. In this Dealcast, listeners get a look inside NorthWall’s strategy, which employs a different approach to provide different returns compared to traditional private direct lending.

But what makes a situation complex? This episode discusses factors like market conditions, a complicated carveout, or a tight transaction timeline. Garnier and Lewis also tackle the current uncertainty in the market which has led banks and direct lenders to retreat and how that presents opportunities to be selective with underserved segments.

Despite rumors of political lobbying creeping into antitrust, “it’s a really good time for dealmaking here in the US.” That’s according to Kathy O’Neill, a partner in Fried Frank’s antitrust and competition department and former senior government official with 16 years of experience in the US Department of Justice (DOJ) antitrust division.

According to O’Neill, early and proactive interactions with the US antitrust agencies, the DOJ and Federal Trade Commission (FTC), can lead to smoother antitrust reviews. In her experience, constructive engagement on the merits has even led to the clearance of deals that were likely second request candidates.

In this episode of Dealcast, O’Neill joins Mergermarket’s senior US regulatory reporter Serafina Smith to discuss best practices to get deals through antitrust review during the second Trump administration.

This episode also addresses the agencies’ return to accepting merger remedies—especially structural relief—and the uptick of standalone enforcement by state attorneys general.

While deal volumes reach significant highs in the UK, the numbers are largely being driven by big deals with expensive price tags. But these big-ticket transactions may not be the tide that lifts all boats.

The lower-to-middle market segment in particular is seeing more muted deal activity. So why the surge of large-scale deals while the mid-market flounders? In this episode of Dealcast, White & Case partner and head of the firm's UK Public M&A practice Patrick Sarch joins Mergermarket’s global commentary editor John West to discuss what’s happening under the surface with the UK’s M&A landscape.

Transformational deals are certainly skewing the overall M&A haul, public and private volume together arriving at GBP 128bn year-to-date, of which just 25 deals account for GBP 110bn, according to Mergermarket data. In public M&A, three deals – Schroders/Nuveen, Intertek/EQT, and Beazley/Zurich Insurance Group – account for 90% of volume.

Smaller which deals have faced difficulties in the UK have had less spectacular progresss amid sponsor exit headaches, the fallout from “SaaSmageddon” and inflation pressures.

This episode explores: why buyers and sellers in the middle market are failing to see eye to eye on pricing, which particular deals are driving up the numbers, how the stagnating buyout class from 2020/2021 is impacting activity, and how the Iran war is threatening further inflationary risks on dealmaking.

Further insights will be discussed at Mergermarket’s UK M&A Forum on 23 June in London, where White & Case is lead sponsor alongside KPMG.

In this week’s Dealcast, Mergermarket’s head of global ECM, Samuel Kerr, joins John West, Mergermarket’s global commentary editor, to discuss how both M&A and ECM, particularly IPOs, are faring in Europe so far this year.

M&A on the continent has been off to a strong start with 1Q deal volumes, reaching around EUR 330bn, up 40% year over year. And while general equity capital markets are booming, IPOs, have stalled in reaction to the Iran war.

In this episode, Kerr and West explore the factors supporting M&A and hindering IPOs amidst severe geopolitical disruption. The two discuss which companies have made headlines, how sponsor exits factor into lagging IPO activity, how performances on the aftermarket have fared in Europe and comparatively in the US, and finally, when we could expect to see a rebound in listings.

All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.