Decoding the Shopper

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will chocolate prices finally come down?

Sam Hart and Jackson Woods unpack the big question facing confectionery right now: with cocoa prices falling sharply, are shoppers about to see cheaper chocolate on shelves? The answer is more complicated than it seems.

From commodity buying cycles and retailer negotiations to promotions, shrinkflation, and the psychology of indulgence during difficult economic periods, the team explores why falling input costs don’t automatically translate into lower shelf prices.

Using real-world case studies from butter, coffee, and sugar confectionery, they break down:

• Why manufacturers may resist deflation
• How promotions could become the new battleground
• The role of shopper behaviour and “treat culture”
• What history tells us about inflation, substitution, and recovery
• Why Christmas tubs could be one of the first signs of change

Plus, a look ahead at how enhanced shopper panel data will help brands better understand impulsive purchasing and convenience channel trends in the months ahead.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Watch podcast on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ak2by4amTbg

Launches create activity. Routines decide whether it lasts.

In the third article of our Innovation Advantage series, we examine how advantage is protected when markets tighten and substitution rises.

We look at where routine stability begins to weaken: price expectations, discount dependence, product experience, and the quiet shift toward simpler substitutes.

For innovation leaders, revenue managers and brand teams, the challenge is clear: how do you ensure a launch keeps its place in routine once the launch moment fades?

Speak to and expert and find out more: Creating the innovation advantage - Worldpanel by Numerator

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Watch podcast on YouTube: The innovation advantage: How advantage can drift

Incrementality ranges from -40% to +40% — even when share grows. Share gain doesn’t equal advantage.

In episode 2 of our innovation series we discuss:

·       Why 50–80% price premiums can hold — if designed properly

·       How 15–25% smaller packs shape trial without eroding value

·       Why promotions should drive discovery, not dependency

·       The channel choices that reinforce premium positioning

Incrementality isn’t luck. It’s architecture. When pack, price, promotion and channel are designed as behaviour shapers, not commercial afterthoughts, innovation performs very differently.

Speak to and expert and find out more: Creating the innovation advantage - Worldpanel by Numerator

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Watch podcast on You Tube: https://youtu.be/hn0rCMYo5YE

48% of launches reduce category spending. That’s not a typo.

Nearly half of innovation doesn’t expand the category, it redistributes spend.

In Episode 1 of our podcast series focused on Innovation: The innovation advantage: How advantage is built. We look at what happens after launch as most innovation looks good at launch.

But what matters is what happens when:

•       The spotlight moves on

•       The promotion ends

•       The numbers normalise

We unpack why behavioural direction, repeat, repertoire role, occasion expansion, is the real measure of advantage.

Find out more: Creating the innovation advantage - Worldpanel by Numerator

Read more: https://worldpanelbynumerator.com/insights/innovation-advantage-fmcg-category-growth

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Christmas may be over, but the real story is just beginning.

In this special episode, Andrew Walker is joined by retail experts from England, Ireland and Scotland to unpack what Christmas 2025 reveals about shopper behaviour and what it signals for 2026 and beyond.

The signals are clear:

Growth is harder. Shoppers are sharper. Loyalty is fragile.

From HFSS legislation reshaping store layouts to the rise of low and no alcohol alongside record festive celebration, this conversation goes beyond “what happened” and asks the more urgent question:

Who is ready for what happens next?

If you’re planning for 2026 and beyond, this isn’t hindsight — it’s foresight.

Chapters:

00:00 – Introduction

00:13 – Opening

01:17 – Reflection on Christmas 2025 (GB, Ireland and Scotland)

05:55 – How shoppers responded to Christmas depending on their financial position (pressure groups)

10.41 – How the industry is responding – promotions

12:25 – Different choices by different retailers

16:58 – Predictions for 2026

23:14 – Advice for planning in 2026 and beyond

26.33 – Close 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.