The Hot Dish

Decoding Trump with Aaron Rupar


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Trump is fighting to control how states run their own elections, and the fallout could shape the midterms before a vote is cast. Aaron Rupar, an independent journalist who's tracked Trump and the media covering him for years, joins Heidi and Joel to break down what's happening and why it matters outside Washington.

Aaron explains how he tells what's real from what isn't, in a news cycle built for speed, and why he left Vox to build Public Notice on his own terms. He also gets into how Twitter/X, Bluesky, and Substack have split the audience for political news, and what that means when rural voters end up with different versions of the same story depending on where they look.

In this episode:

  • What Trump's push for more control over state elections actually means
  • How Aaron fact-checks claims in real time without getting it wrong
  • Why he left Vox to go independent, and what changed
  • Platform fragmentation: Twitter/X, Bluesky, Substack, and what it does to political coverage
  • The enthusiasm gap heading into the midterms, on both sides

Connect with Aaron Rupar:

  • Substack
  • Bluesky

Aaron's argument is simple. Watch the elections fight, not the noise around it.

The Hot Dish is brought to you by the One Country Project. To learn more, visit OneCountryProject.org, or find us on Substack (Onecountryproject.substack.com), and on YouTube, Bluesky, and Facebook (@onecountryproject).

  • (00:00) - – Introduction: Aaron Rupar's role tracking political misinformation
  • (02:09) - – Platform fragmentation and the shift in conservative messaging (Twitter, Bluesky, Substack, Threads, Facebook, Truth Social)
  • (04:35) - – How platform diversification affects public trust in news
  • (05:50) - – Fact-checking, legal risk, and misinformation from figures like RFK Jr.
  • (08:15) - – Washington's press culture: independent journalists, source relationships, and Trump's war on the press
  • (12:19) - – Media versus power at the correspondents' dinner, and journalism's growing accountability role
  • (14:02) - – Election outlook: enthusiasm, turnout, and party dynamics
  • (15:26) - – Trump's strategy and the risk of election interference
  • (22:12) - – State races, endorsements, and local campaigning
  • (23:21) - – Voter enthusiasm, fear-based messaging, and eroding democratic safeguards
  • (31:38) - – Minnesota politics and party resilience
  • (33:50) - – Local, coalition-based strategy over ideological purity
  • ...more
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