The Santa Claus rally hangs in the balance! The S&P lost its mojo some as the Congress waffles on renewed stimulus. 

Tech darlings DoorDash and AirBnB debut to absurdly high valuations, to the chagrin of Bobby Nunez. So how do we understand the bursting of enthusiasm over these glossy openings?

And, having said already that 2021 will be a bull year, we discuss Deutsche Bank's biggest risks in 2021.

Plus we re-introduce new/adorable ETFs and stock picks in the near term. Among them:

-NVTA, a genetic futurism darling from ARK

-PD, a cloud failure early detection something

-YOLO

-NERD

-Robert's old man stocks

With 2020 nearly behind us and a Santa Claus rally in the offing, we ask the question, how does this recession compare to past recessions? The obvious answer with respect to this podcast is, how do we explain the snap-back rally of ages in the stock market in 2020?

What stands out?

1. The stock market crash was not as acute (-32% from peak to trough vs -50% in 2008 and -44% in 2001)
2. The time elapsed from stock market peak to trough was incredibly brief (1 month vs 5 months in 2008 vs 4 years in 2001)
3. The stock market recovery was incredibly rapid (5 months vs 4 years in 2008 vs 4 years in 2001)

Why? And are we still in a recession, technically?

-The infrastructure for Central Bank and Treasury intervention established in 2008, e.g. the QE revolution

-The willingness of the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, guarantee Corporate debt and drop interest rates hastily 

-Federal stimulus

-The consensus mentality that COVID-19 is a temporary phenomenon, conquerable with vaccines and economic subsidies

-The discounting of the unemployed as economic zeros in future earnings 

Plus Robert pitches the adorable ETF MOON and James successfully shorts Palantir. 

Stevie Mnuchin drops the hammer on Jerry Powell. The Treasury has vowed to let its emergency lending measures expire at year's end, most of which allowed the Fed to prop up Corporate debt and lend to medium-sized businesses. The Fed reacts angrily. And so with COVID cases mounting to fresh heights, the DOW's moment in the sun ends. Sorry Old Man stocks.

So risk-off falls in favor of Tech once more. What do we think is afoot in Stevie's calculations?

Apple lowers tribute in half for "small" developers, dropping commissions to 15% of revenue for developers trafficking less than $1M in revenue. Fortnite calls BS. What is Tim Apple really after?

And Scooter darling Lime says it will actually make money. Not cool. What do we make of the scootering business?

Just when James thought his moment had arrived, Pfizer announced a near-vaccine for COVID, sending Old Man and cyclical stocks up. Here we stand, on the brink of a Constitutional crisis in America, with the Nasdaq and DOW at fresh highs (almost).

But how solid is this state of affairs? Billy Ackman, who hedged March's sell-off to perfection, says he's going short again, citing specifically the future weakness of cyclicals even beyond the vaccine's deployment. We discuss. 

DoorDash files for its IPO, revealing prolific growth during the pandemic and an actual profit in 2Q. As Bobby calls for food delivery from a mere block away, does this change our perspective on the prospects of the Food Delivery sector?

And finally the Great Panda, President Xi of China, after scuttling Jack Ma's Ant IPO with ease, congratulates Joey Biden on his election victory. So we good right?

On this week's episode!

We return! After days of hand wringing, the Election skids toward divided government, which is to say NO GOVERNMENT.

And in the context of anarchy, the market rejoices that new regulation will be impossible, even if the stimulus hopes have fallen into the sea. Which is a way of saying, there is certainty that nothing will get done.

And to boot, China ETFs burst on the prospect of a China-friendlier Biden administration. Not to mention minerals (gold / silver).

And in case you missed it, Uber and Lyft survived Prop 22, confirming that people want to make sure DoorDash survives rather than give the wretched poor a break.

The famed Silver Surfer James Lin wipes out. 

Robert Nunez gives into the malaise of COVID and takes the Degenerate Business School on the road.

And the NASDAQ, after approaching it's all time high again on Monday, wavers as anxiety sets in on the prospect of a Democratic wave. The polls say Joey Biden has it in the bag, but no one believes the polls anymore. So as political uncertainty reigns, so volatility reigns in the markets.

On this week's episode!

Joey Biden and the Democrats pull ahead in the betting markets, as the Trumpus fights Coronavirus with steroids. And the promise of a Blue Wave in November gives the markets their best week since August. Around the standard of Center Left politics, Wall Street looks on ravenously for a Stimulus bill, a Green New Deal and potential infrastructure investment. 

But are we just poised for disappointment come election night? We discuss the best, worst and meh cases for the political settlement in America.

And as ever, we ask the question, are we living in a frothy bubble like 2001? Or is this a permanent reset in the fortunes of TECH at the expense of all other stocks. 

On this week's episode!

Nothing in life is certain. Least of all the fate of the American Republic in November, the invention of a COVID vaccine, and as Wall Street is really concerned the scope & likelihood of renewed Stimulus.

As such, the markets continued their choppy turn this week. But as ever, on the heels of what looks like a correction in September, the Nasdaq wins the  week and the DOW sheds weight. Why? The march of history towards Minority Report & Blade Runner means that Tech is the new buy & hold haven, and that the DOW can only be held together by Federal intervention. 

So if you followed us on Monday and went long on QQQ, or optioned into calls on the Nasdaq, buying the dip as we say, then your fortunes are somewhat improved. 

And presaging even more the emergence of a Technology dominated dystopia, President of the California Republic Gavin Newsom ended for all time the sale of gas cars in our fair state. Nice.

It's the 3Q Quadruple Witching hour, when single stock and index options and futures all expire simultaneously, fomenting more volatility in TECH to close out another wobbly week. 

Jerry Powell's promise to keep rates at zero for a thousand years wasn't enough for the high maintenance markets, as they thirst for more promises of stimulus now hung up on the rails in Washington. Truly, the United States government has become a socialist stack for the Rich White Men. 

So where do we go from here? Bobby likes what he sees to go long. We tell you why.

The Trumpus presses his blood vendetta against the Young and the Chinese, first awarding a crony deal for Tik Tok US to Oracle, then banning new app downloads (probably illegally). 

And finally, Snowflake hits the public markets, initially popping, because of course it's in the cloud. 

On this week's episode!

Every once and a while you see the future clear as dawn in Antarctica. We said the market was due for a pull back, and so it fell. The bubble in tech saw it's air let out, some. (The Nasdaq, however, is still up 22% this year).

So what the devil happened? Aside from the garden variety forces of frenzy and correction, a couple of things. First, uncertainty around renewed stimulus. Second, a mysterious whale in the Nasdaq that was revealed to be Softbank spurring the astronomical run-up in tech. 

And we discuss the deep future, debating the WSJ's top 10 biggest tech trends. 

And if there's time, how Mulan has become a microcosm of our times.