DHUnplugged Podcast

DHUnplugged #299: Blood In The Streets


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There has been no let up of the selling pressure. Even with an overnight pop, stocks lost most of their luster as the correction continues.
Earnings season is now in full swing and even as we see some decent beats, that is not helping. Banks are expecting big losses on energy related debt and few companies have bright outlooks to share.

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Three Powerball winners – Since we are still doing the show, assume that neither of us won?
Market update: At the end of last week, January 2016 moved up to the #1 worst January since 1966. While it came off the bottom Friday, it is still in the Top 3. Oil dropping, concern over rising provisions at banks for bad debt, consumers spending less and the outlook for earnings still has a cloud hanging over markets. Today we are seeing a bit of a relief rally from an oversold condition – will it last? (All major indices in correction territory now)
BIG reversal (again) today. Futures on S&P 500 were up 24 handles pre-market. By mid-day they were flat. Sellers are not kidding around. (By 2pm, all major indices in the red)
Slowest growth in 25 years! China GDP 6.8% – world markets watching this closely as concern over the growth of the country’s economy could be a problem for the rest of the world. Lowest GDP since 2009. The question is: Do we believe it?
– Several analysts out saying that GDP may really be well below, possibly 5%
– China may need to continue to devalue the Yuan to reduce debt and stoke growth
China GDP Trend
Iran economic sanctions lifted. Iran immediately added 500,000 barrels per day to oil production. Sent Brent crude under $29. Current forecasts are all over the place – see chart.
Brent Crude Forecast
Over five million jobs will be lost by 2020 as a result of developments in genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics and other technological change, according to World Economic Forum research. (But there are over 3 billion employed worldwide, is this a big deal?) (LINK)
Seems that there is not just one cockroach. Renault SA shares plunged the most in 17 years after a union said French fraud investigators seized computers from the automaker, apparently as part of a probe into emissions testing. (Seems that Europe is not very concerned and wants to possibly change emissions rules as their auto sector could be hit by these findings)
Problem for the big ticket housing market? The Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network said that it will seek out the identity of individuals behind limited-liability companies that pay cash for high-end residential real estate in Manhattan and Miami-Dade County. Starting in March, title insurers will be required to name the true “beneficial owner” behind the anonymous entities.
Bank earnings are flowing in – while they look good on the surface, there is concern over the outlook and loan loss provisions. Bank of America (BAC) reported and stock down again. (Also concern about banks in Europe as potential for banking crisis rising again) For 2016:
– Bank of America (BAC): – 16%

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DHUnplugged PodcastBy Horowitz and Dvorak

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