DHUnplugged Podcast

DHUnplugged #613: Its A Recession Stupid!


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From never going to stop - to let's get busy.
Yields plummet, oil sub-$100 and recession calls are everywhere.
A great island story and much more.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm Up
- New Month - 1/2 the year gone
- Crypto still gets no love - more lending firms halt withdrawals
- Investors looking for every excuse to sell
- THANK YOU for Donations - that was very nice of all of you who participated
- Back from Bahamas - Abacos - Guess who Andrew ran into?
Market Update
- Worst start for equity markets since 1970
- Worst start for bond markets EVER
- Last week BBBY and RH earnings miss and outlook spook investors
- Earnings season ahead - 7/14/22 JP Morgan starts it off
- Watch out - mortgage demand hits the skids
- WOW! Yields - WOW! Oil - Markets Go Crazy!
Recession fears
- Oil drops below $100 (remember how many were bullish?)
- Yields - what is happening? 10-Yr @ 2.79%
- Markets - WHAT A MOVE ON High-Multiple Tech (DOCU, RBLX, ZM, AFRM)
- HUGE move on tech - DJIA recovers from 600 point loss - potential bottom in the making here.
DEFLATIONARY = OIL
Oil Chart
DEFLATIONARY = Yields DOWN
10 Yr Treasury
Deflationary = Copper
- Copper fell to the lowest level in 17 months, with metals extending losses as global recession fears continue to damp the demand outlook for commodities.
Weekend - Abacos Bahamas
- Guess who Andrew ran into?
- Shout out to Nippers Bar on Great Guana Cay - Johnny and Janice
David Solomon
Tesla
- Disappointing quarter of deliveries, a record month of production, and now several weeks of downtime at multiple plants.
- Possible $400 million impermanent charge due to losses on Bitcoin
- Tesla will halt most production on its Model Y assembly line in Shanghai for the first two weeks of July, then stop the Model 3 line for a 20-day stretch starting July 18,
MonkeyPox
-WHO says not an issue
- THEN, The World Health Organization says "sustained transmission" of monkeypox worldwide could see the virus begin to move into high-risk groups, such as pregnant women, immunocompromised people and children.
- The virus has now been identified in more than 50 new countries outside the countries in Africa where it is endemic.
- Epidemic - Pandemic?
No Respect
- Grayscale, which manages the world's largest bitcoin fund, said it would sue the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after regulators turned down its bid to convert the investment vehicle into an exchange-traded fund.
- The SEC on Wednesday rejected Grayscale's application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, citing a failure by the investment manager to answer questions about concerns around market manipulation.
- The watchdog is concerned investors would lack sufficient protections under the Grayscale proposal.
Korea Krypto
- The nosedive in cryptocurrency markets has wiped out millions of dollars in funds stolen by North Korean hackers, four digital investigators say, threatening a key source of funding for the sanctions-stricken country and its weapons programmers.
- Do you think the drop is purposeful? Working to smack bad actors?
- One of North Korea’s cryptocurrency caches from a 2021 heist, which had been worth tens of millions of dollars, has lost 80% to 85% of its value in the last few weeks and is now worth less than $10 million
Mortgages
- Average loan size dropping as affordability becomes a problem
- "Overall purchase activity has weakened in recent months due to the quick jump in mortgage rates, high home prices, and growing economic uncertainty," said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. "The average purchase loan amount declined to $413,500,
...more
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DHUnplugged PodcastBy Horowitz and Dvorak

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