Another World Health Emergency.

A recession by any other name.

Enough of Mr. Musk already - what else could there be anyway?

Earnings and Eco coming hot and heavy.

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Warm Up

- Better vibe - markets are getting more comfortable ?

- Biden has a case of Vid

- MonkeyPox - Update from WHO

- Are we there yet - Peak Musk ?

- Recession - "Not Inevitable"

- 10yr Yield 2.78%!

Market Update

- Big week for earnings and ECO - HUGE WEEK

- Tech earnings in the spotlight - watch ad biz

- Markets having a great month - Fed tomorrow can change that - but odds are they stay the course

- IMF Downgrade and a remarkable housing number

- BIG MOVE AFTER HOURS - MSFT, GOOG Miss - but commentary about strong demand overshadows slowdown

- Chipotle moves higher on commentary about potejtial for MORE price hikes

REMEMBER: Closest to the Pin - get your entry in!!

BIG WEEK - A Really Big Week

- This week something like 40% of S&P 500 companies are going to report this week

- GDP, PCE, Durable goods, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence.....

Great month so far - due for a bounce from really oversold conditions

- Financials +5%, Tech +7.5%, Homebuilders +12% (even with drop in NAHB and housing market)

Consumer Disc +12%, Utilities -0.20%, Bitcoin +17% (Gold and Silver DOWN)

Rate Odds - Wednesday at 2PM

- 77.5% of a 0.75% rate hike, 22.5% for 1.00% hike - ZERO PERCENT PROBABILITY for 0.50%

Case Shiller Home Prices

- May S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20.5% vs. 20.8% consensus; prior 21.2%

Not Inevitable

- Still trying to stick this down our throats

- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. economic growth is slowing and acknowledged there was the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable.

- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. economic growth is slowing and acknowledged there was the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable.

BUT:

- IMF's World Economic Outlook revised down; risks to the outlook 'overwhelmingly' to the downside

- The baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1 percent last year to 3.2 percent in 2022, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook.

- Lower growth earlier this year, reduced household purchasing power, and tighter monetary policy drove a downward revision of 1.4 percentage points in the United States.

- In China, further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1.1 percentage points, with major global spillovers.

- And in Europe, significant downgrades reflect spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy.

- In 2023, disinflationary monetary policy is expected to bite, with global output growing by just 2.9 percent.

- The risks to the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside.

AND...............

- CNBC Fed Survey shows 55% probability of recession over the next 12 months; expects Fed to start cutting rates next year 

But, Then There is This

- White House puts out a blog - "How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? "

- What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data,