The sky is falling - literally.

We are seeing markets applaud spending cuts - but how far does that reach?

An update on inflation and the Fed's latest shenanigans.

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Warm Up

- Superbowl - thoughts on adverts/halftime?

- Jesus Gets Us

- Big news at the BOJ

- Crypto Under Fire

- AI frenzy seems over already

- Kanye West Fallout continues

- Soft Landing - Really?

Market Update

- Inflation ticks up again

- UFO sightings and not much concern (Aliens)

- Biden Eco Team shuffle

- Inflation comes in a bit hot - markets shrug

- What is making market move? Interesting insight

- Parade of Fed speakers this week - mostly trying to sell their story (markets deaf to it)

Happy Valentines Day!

- Great time for a donation of either $214 or even $14

- Anyone that donated $214 will get a personally signed copy of my book - The Disciplined Investor - Essential Strategies for Success

Soft landing

- A soft landing by a central bank is when "the central bank tightens monetary policy to fight inflation but does not cause a recession." If it causes a recession, then it is a hard landing.

- If there is a "soft landing" then there is going to be perpetual higher prices|

- How is that possible knowing the economic cycles?

Inflation Update

- CPI comes in at 0.50% today (prior was 0.1%)

- YoY 6.4%

- Some serious concern that inflation may be much more sticky than thought

---- Potential 0.25% increase for more meetings and higher terminal rate

- MARKETS DO NOT CARE

Morning Meeting

- Breakfast with big shot from Merrill today

- Message, it will be messy but just stay invested

- made some odd comments about valuation and earnings and just rushed past them

- AH had sidebar with him.. Asked about the comment of $200 projected earnings for SP500 -

-- Infers P/E forward of 20+

- Asked about his overweight US if better value elsewhere

--- He said that makes sense of course, yeah

----- These guys are full of crap

What is actually powering market?

- Slashes, Cuts and Layoffs

- - - Spending cuts, layoffs and other creative money saving

--- Let's take that apart and see what we get

- WHY???? Earnings for S&P 500 companies are down 23% YoY

Updates

- Yahoo plans to lay off more than 20% of its total 8,600 workforce as part of a major restructuring.

- Many other companies are cutting back on CapEX and other expansion plans

- Markets applauding when they see companies are practicing fiscal restraint

- Financial Services also cutting

Tech Layoffs

ECO Team Shuffle

- President Joe Biden has decided to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as his top economic adviser, with an announcement coming as soon as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said.

- In addition, according to the people, Jared Bernstein, a member of the Council of Economic Advisers, is considered likely to be named its chair, replacing Cecilia Rouse, who is stepping down.

BOJ Changes

- Kazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

- Kuroda was first appointed in March 2013

- Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have "global communication skills" and be able to coordinate closely with global peers

- There was some worry about Kishida not being as DOVISH as Kuroda (very difficult shoes to fill)

Starting with $20 Million on Jesus

- The “He Gets Us” ads, which directed viewers to a website to learn more about Jesus, were funded by Hobby Lobby CEO David Green and a string of other anonymous Christian donors. (Donor advised funds and