More War? More Money?

Bond yields surged on latest PPI and CPI

Earnings in the spotlight - So far - so good.

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Warm Up

- Better than expected - again...

- More earnings coming this week - (TSLA, BAC, NFLX)

- Banks in the spotlight

- WAR - seems as if War playbook needs to be brought out and dusted off

- Swifty's buy up movie tickets

- MORE STRIKES!

Market Update

- Market in downtrend to consolidating ahead of news

- Most markets are looking past the Israel war/issues

- Big concern that this will spread and oil prices will keep rising

-  War is good? $$$ and maybe the final straw that the Fed is looking at and saying.... Maybe a pause is warranted.

November 15th Webinar  "2024 - What's in Store?

Israel/Middle East

- Does not appear to be an easy way out of this

- Israel stock market not ding well - ETF (EIS) down 11% since this all began

- US military selects 2,000 troops to prepare for a potential deployment to support Israel, but are not intended for combat, according to WSJ

Tesla Earnings Outlook

-  Reports Wednesday 10/18

- Annual goal 1.8 million delivered

- Margins expected to be at 4-year low of 18.1% (some think could drop below 15%)

- FactSet EPS consensus: 0.73

- FactSet Rev consensus: 24.26 bln

Tesla Profitibility Trend

Stock News

- Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech — Shares of Pfizer dropped 1.3% Monday after the company slashed its full-year revenue guidance by $9 billion, noting waning demand for its Covid treatment and vaccine.

- Rite-Aid declares bankruptcy (Chapter 11)

- LuluLemon - Stock being added to the SP500  (Stock up to to 52 week high) (Taking place of Activision Blizzard

- Schwab beat on earnings, a bit light on Revenue - stock initially down, but better than feared

- Ferrari has started to accept payment in cryptocurrency for its luxury sports cars in the U.S. and will extend the scheme to Europe following requests from its wealthy customers (remember Tesla accepted for a while then halted program due to environmental concerns)

- Mictosoft - Activision Blizzard takeover has been approved by UK regulators... Clearing way for deal to close

Other Earnings

- BAC Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.90 per share, $0.07 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.83; revenues rose 2.8% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $25.13 bln FactSet Consensus.

- - - - -  -Noninterest expense of $15.8B in 3Q23 increased $0.5B, or 3%, vs. 3Q22, driven by increased investments in the franchise across people and technology, as well as higher FDIC expense from the increased assessment on banks announced in 2022.

- - - - - - - Net interest income (NII) up $614 million, or 4%, to $14.4 billion ($14.5 billion FTE)(B) , driven primarily by benefits from higher interest rates and loan growth..

- - - -  - - -Provision for credit losses of $1.2 billion increased $336 million.

China

- China is considering creating a state-backed stabilization fund to shore up confidence in its equity markets

- What does that mean?

---- Fund with lots of money from the state to buy stocks when they are down. The ultimate bailout for investors

---- News out that  State-owned banks are buying state buying other state owned bank shares - that is something special

Economics

- PPI and CPI both came in hotter than expected this month

- Expected and unexpected

- Bonds yields rallied initially then hit some technical resistance

- - Rate hike expectations ticked up, then moved back as concern over Middle-Eat conflict grows

Social Security COLA

- 3.2% increase for 2024 for COLA

- 8.7% for 2023

- 5.9% for 2022

- - - 18.9% increase in over 3 years!