Markets on fire - is it for real?

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Household debt update - market thoughts and more...

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Warm Up

- Following up on last week's data deluge

- Wondering - was it a DCB or a BMR (Dead Cat Bounce - Bull Market Rally)

- WeWork is now WeBroke

- 70 hour workweek?

- GUILTY

-Another Shutdown countdown

Market Update

- Household Debt reaches milestone

- South Korea "leveling the playing field"

- Best week of 2023

- Apple Earnings (Does anyone care?)

- Microsoft - Big Move

Headline

- U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on track for their longest streak of gains in two years, as a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields buoyed megacap growth stocks and investors sought more clarity on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

- Best week of 2023 - NASDAQ up 6%!

Microsoft

- Big Move!

- OpenAI and other AI has been good tailwind for the company

- Stock closing in on ATH

-- H&C Clients own the stock

MSFT CHART

FOLLOW UP : What to Expect from the Data Deluge

- ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last

- Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady)

- ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction)

- FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change)

- (Add in Treasury  issuance needed to make up deficit and  Apple earnings)

----- Result? Pretty much inline - Fed said one thing: Risk balanced about doing too much or too little and market went bananas

--------Apple - Not impressive and outlook for this coming quarter not so good - but stock moves higher

Countdown

- November 17th is the end of the short-term budget extension

Apple Earnings

- EPS: $1.46 per share vs. $1.39 per share expected

- Revenue: $89.5 billion vs. $89.28 billion expected

- iPhone revenue: $43.81 billion vs. $43.81 billion expected

- Mac revenue: $7.61 billion vs. $8.63 billion expected 

- iPad revenue: $6.44 billion vs. $6.07 billion expected

- Wearables revenue: $9.32 billion vs. $9.43 billion expected

- Services revenue: $22.31 billion vs $21.35 billion expected

- Gross margin: 45.2% vs. 44.5% expected

- - Outlook - Not Great - and blamed one  less week in the 4th quarter on outlook

-  - - Stock Down initially then rose with  market

Skinny Drugs

- Novo Nordisk said on Thursday it will supply "significantly" more doses of Wegovy in the U.S. next year, even as it cautioned shortages of the weight-loss injection would continue in the short to medium term.

- The Danish drugmaker, which this year overtook LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company, posted record operating profit and sales for the third quarter, underscoring the phenomenal success of Wegovy so far.

-"Specifically on the U.S. market, we'll be supplying significantly more in 2024 compared to what we are in 2023," Novo's CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen said in an interview.

- H&C clients own NVO for past several months

More Drugs

- - Moderna said its 2023 sales would only hit the low end of its $6 billion to $8 billion forecast, reflecting weaker demand for COVID-19 vaccines, and its shares slumped 8%.

- The vaccine maker also pushed back to 2025

- Stock down 59% YTD

Household Debt

- "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023, to $17.29 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.

- Mortgage balances rose by $126 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $12.14 trillion at the end of September.

- Credit card balances increased by $48 billion ...