The train is leaving the station - get on or get run over.

Inflation is turning and now there is what?

Fed rally - just in time for Christmas.

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Warm Up

- AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024

- More layoffs

- End pf year - bullish sentiment and candy cane dreams

- AMAZING - NOW Deflation is starting to bubble up

- Fed-Ex Earnings...

Market Update

- Data matters - but only bull case

- Yields - next stop? What is it saying about the future economy?

- Adobe M&A stopage

- Homebuilders - hitting new highs

- Hacking - another hit

- Supply Chain Redux?

Fed Rally - Then Chill

- This is getting out of hand...

- Just days after a Federal Reserve meeting that penciled in an ample course of interest rate cuts next year, which in turn unleashed a broad rally in financial markets, one of the U.S. central bank's top policymakers pushed back on the ebullience on Friday.

- "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now," New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with CNBC.  (WHAT????)

- When it comes to the question of lowering rates, "I just think it's just premature to be even thinking about that" as the central bank continues to mull whether monetary policy is in the right place to help guide inflation back to its 2% target, he said.

DEFLATION concept entering the market

- Deflation is happening on the "goods" side of the U.S. economy, or the tangible objects that Americans buy, economists said.

- For one, a strong U.S. dollar makes imported goods cheaper. Some of those savings get passed on to consumers, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

----- A strong dollar is a likely contributor to deflation in certain categories like household furniture and appliances, Zandi said. Additionally, weaker demand may be a factor: Households that spent liberally on home goods in the early days of Covid-19 lockdowns are likely no longer doing so, he added.

--- Broadly, the pandemic snarled global supply chains, causing shortages that fueled big spikes in prices. Energy costs surged when Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up transportation and other distribution costs.

------ Now, supply-chain disruptions are largely in the rearview mirror, economists said. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, for example, has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels from historic highs at the end of 2021.

- Some prices, like those for airline tickets and eggs, are also falling back to earth after hitting record-high levels. The latter, for example, soared largely due to a historically deadly bout of avian flu among egg-laying hens. Egg and airline ticket prices are down about 22% and 12% in the past year, according to CPI data.

Year Over Year November - Not Seasonally Adjusted

- Does not include rents/housing. ( A big part of the the CPI index)

Deflation - Food/Energy

Deflation - All Items (X)

Red Sea

- War is hell - now ships diverted

- Have to go around Cape Horn adding massive time for deliveries

- Will this cause any price hikes?

- Oil Prices?

FedEx Earnings

- FedEx shares tumbled 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the package-delivery giant lowered its revenue forecast as weaker demand hit sales.

- The company said it expects a low-single-digit decline in revenue for the fiscal year, down from a previous forecast for flat sales year-over-year - less that analysts predicted.

- It's the second consecutive quarter FedEx has lowered its sales outlook.

- Meanwhile - Apple lowered its numbers for several quarters and the stock still rallies (Buybacks)

Layoffs Auto

- General Motors plans to lay off about 1,300 workers in Michigan starting early next year due to ve...