DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages

Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident)

Dangerous market - running on emotions

Tesla Earnings are out...

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Warm Up

- Politics Goes off the rails - Biden out (Failed)

- Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident)

- Dangerous market - running on emotions

Market Update

- DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages - massive losses as UNH fails to keep up (accounted for 500+ points of that big rally in July)

- Market broadened out finally - then the mega-caps started to come in and market was crushed -

- Tesla Earnings are out - other tech names too

Need a new CTP

Market Emotions

- Now that we  are in the throws of the election cycle - dangerous market

- Running on emotion - and you can see that we levels (round like futures markets @ES - 5,600 and @NQ 20,000 levels as battle lines)

- People will think that one or other candidate is good or bad and will invest accordingly (usually without facts)

- Biden dropping  out has interesting impact - Now we have one candidate that we really do not know actual policy and track record. Also unknown VP ...

Crowdstrike Glitch

- Anything on your end a problem?

- Some minor trading issues with Schwab for a minute on Friday

- Airlines - still seem to be having issues

- Bigger issues when relying on single company?

- Friday and over weekend MSFT said that they restored a majority of services

- Hackers are already taking advantage of situation and Crowdstike out with warnings  (some firms  may get phished into beleiving that there is a fix and it is actually a hack)

Delta Offers Apologies+

- CEO Ed Bastian offered Freq flyer miles to travelers that were stuck due to Crowdstrike "glitch"

- 800 flights were cancelled Sunday (22% of flights)

- The airline was offering flight attendants extra pay to pick up shifts

- WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? (Crowdstike and passengers)

Tech - Wiz Walks

- $23 billion - they say NO THANKS

- Wiz - 4 year old start up that makes security tools to protect data centers

- May valuation was $12 billion

- Company wants to go the IPO route

Election

- Sooooo - thoughts on the Biden dropout? (Via letter and Social Media - is that weird?)

- Trump Trade fade?

- Vance tough on anything  foreign? (USA First)

- Anyone else aside from Harris?

Bank Earnings

- Looking back - not much to be upset about - so that is good

- Rate expectations are for September (Dec more likely)

- Yield curve has steepened (good for profit margin of banks)

- Fed continues to be dovish

- Trump expectations of reduced regulations?

More Earnings

- Google/Alphabet - Alphabet prelim Q2 $1.89 vs $1.84 FactSet Consensus; revs $84.74 bln vs $84.22 bln FactSet Consensus

--- Margin 32% vs 29& a year ago (Stock initially up then tuend lower on lower advert revenue  and other AI comments)

- Tesla Earnings - Tesla prelim Q2 $0.52 vs $0.61 FactSet Consensus; revs $25.5 bln vs $24.38 bln FactSet Consensus

-- Tesla prelim: GAAP gross margin of 18.0%, down 23 bps yr/yr

---- Tesla prelim: reiterates that in 2024, its vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than growth rate achieved in 2023 (Stock down 5%)

- Visa: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $2.42; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $8.9 bln vs the $8.92 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock down 10%)

Warren

- Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its gigantic Bank of America holding for the first time in four and a half years following the bank's strong 2024 run.