Bulls remain in charge

Data not important - down the road all will be fine

Seasonality - Race to the End

CPI and PPI - conflicting

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This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com

Warm-Up

- Bulls remain in charge

- Data not important - down the road all will be fine

- Seasonality - Race to the End

- Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year.

- Musk pulls a fast one

Markets

- CPI and PPI - conflicting

- Bank earnings - so far so good

- Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead

- US Chips and Exports - roughed up market

Economics This Week

- Import and Export Prices

- Retail Sales

- Philly Fed

- Industrial Production

- Housing Starts

- Building Permits

Of Interest:

NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon.

- So inflation is a bit more sticky than

Recession - No Says Goldman

- Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%

Seasonality - The Race until the end

- Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost...

- End of year from here favors the bulls

- Could have a few complications with the election right in  between but electoral promises will be  helpful for markets

Markets Worried?

- Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis

- NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East

- Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them

- The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security

- ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector

Fed Powers

- Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it

ELON - Pulling a fast one

- Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg

- Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere)

- Isn't that fraud?

Example of promises hitting the wires

- Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters

- Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America

- Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon)

Consumer Confidence

- Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident

- Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month

JPM Earnings

- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall.

- Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase.

- Official:  JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates.