Where are all the smokers these days?

DOGE - making promises.

We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise.

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Warm-Up

- Where are all the smokers these days?

- DOGE - making promises

- High level indictment

- We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise

Markets

-#endthefed making the rounds

- Treasury Secretary?

- Target earnings surprise

- Black Friday - will that boost retail?

- New Phrase - Mullet Market

Thanksgiving - What is going to be on the Dvorak table?

ANNOUNCING the CTP Winner for Carvana

Mullet Market

- No, the fish...

- Steady benchmarks in the front, crypto party in the back

Netflix Again

- Netflix notches 70 million monthly active users on ad-supported plan

- 250 million subs and 70 million on ad plan

- Didn't we used to call this TV? Made a full circle except that ad-based also has a monthly fee

- Over 50% of the new sign ups are ads based plans

Smokers

- Retail cigarette sales in China have been growing for the past 4 years, reaching 2.44 trillion sticks in 2023, data from Euromonitor showed. The research group forecasts that sales will continue to increase annually, hitting 2.48 trillion by 2028.

- Euromonitor added that growth has coincided with the increasing popularity of "slim" cigarettes, often advertised as "low-tar," and various types of flavored cigarettes.

- Between 2019 and 2023, annual worldwide sales of cigarette sticks fell by about 2.7% to 5.18 trillion, according to Euromonitor data.

At more than 300 million, China has the most cigarette smokers in the world, making up nearly a third of the world's total smokers, according to the World Health Organization.

Topic of Discussion

- #endthefed

- Do you think that Musk and Trump and the new gang will try to end the Fed?

- Elon endorsed the idea of the President being able to intervene on monetary policy.

- Seems like that will undermine the independence and then the confidence in the Fed

-- Going to be some fireworks with Powell saying he will not resign and cannot be fired

DOGE - Dept of Government Efficiency

- Still a hardy har name - like saying Penis when in 3rd grade

- Incoming Department of Government Efficiency wants to create new mobile application for Americans to file taxes for free with IRS, according to Washington Post (Intuit and HR Block down on this...)

- Explain how a government agency that does not exist is making these kinds of statements.

--- Thought: Make these statements and either buy or short stocks? (Again we are all turkeys - hopefully not going to be led to slaughter)

Higher rates

- Rates are running higher after the election - actually up to the election ran up from 3.6% to 4.6% and nor in the range

- DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday interest rates could shoot higher as the Republicans ended up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases.

- Pre-election: "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said

- If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add significant amount to the nation's debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture.

Yeah Right....

- Vocal critic of Putin, Vladimir Shklyarov, 39,