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DHUnplugged #747: Bluffing and Pissing Matches
Tariffs are killing markets.
A glimpse int what happens when we take a difference course
Markets making some of the wort moves in decades
Billionaires – all in on Trump lost billions…
WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now…Or Not…
More finesse, less sledge hammer?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Markets making some of the worst moves in decades
- Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions...
- WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not...
- More finesse, less sledge hammer?
Markets
- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday.. Oversold?
- Stock markets slammed
- President Trump discussing stocks
- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs
- VIX HITS 60!
-- A Quick Poem - Green Eggs and Navarro
--- One of the gents that responded to Vietnam's desire to have zero tariffs as "not enough"
DAX on Monday and other Markets
- Opened up down 10% - clawed back a bunch by end of the day
- European stocks down 1.5% YTD 2024
- US Stock bearing the brunt of the move
- Hong Kong (after being closed Friday) - closed Monday DOWN 13%!
- Monday in Japan, Markets halted, futures trading suspended as Nikkei and Topix plunge more than 5%
--- Follow up - then up 6% the next day
- Monday YTD US Markets:
Heads Up - Just in...
- Tuesday at 12:30PM
- 'White House Press Secretary says 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon eastern time because China has not removed it's retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow April 9th'
-Markets were trying to right themselves - up big to start the day - then this headline....
- What if - China comes back at 200%?
More:
- Tuesday afternoon : White House Secretary Karoline Leavitt answers questions on trade at briefing: President Trump not considering delay in tariffs that are due to go into effect tomorrow at 12:01 AM
- Where is the negotiation? Seems like a pissing match or bluff with unlimited funds.
If you are interested
- Rand Paul making all sorts of sense this morning
- Trades are win-win. Trade does not mean that one side has to win and one lose.
- https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/08/sen-rand-paul-on-trump-tariffs-trade-is-an-integral-part-of-capitalism.html
Stupid
- Taiwan's top financial regulator said on Sunday it will impose temporary curbs on short-selling of shares to help deal with potential market turmoil from U.S. President Donald Trump's new import tariffs, and will take other steps as needed.
- Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission said in a statement it would limit the number of shares that can be sold short and raise the minimum short-selling margin ratio to 130% from 90%, starting from Monday and lasting until Friday.
- We have seen how this plays out in the past.
More references to bluffing
- "I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they're playing with a pair of twos," Bessent said during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them."
VIX
- Hits 60 on Monday - then backs off to 45
- Not often we see a run like that.
- Still at 45 shows big concerned about near-term volatility.
--- S&P 500 top to bottom 7% move today - VIX was at 37 - back to 52
BREAK - IBKR
Billionaires losing $$
- Do we feel bad?
- Sample of losses on Liberation Day
- Zuck lost $18B
- Bezos lost $15B
What?
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Americans looking to retire aren’t concerned about day-to-day markets, dismisses concerns about a potential recession
- During an interview with NBC News' "Meet the Press," Bessent called it a "false narrative" that Americans who are close to retiring may be reticent to do so after their retirement savings may have dropped this week due to the stock market downturn.
- Remember who this is saying this:
-----Bessent played a key role in currency and fixed income markets, notably being part of the team that profited over $1 billion from the 1992 UK sterling crisis
- Bessent was a partner at Soros Fund Management
Meanwhile
- Global hedge funds and levered exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dumped more than $40 billion of stocks at a breakneck pace, growing increasingly bearish after President Donald Trump's shock announcement of harsher-than-expected global tariffs, according to bank notes to clients on Friday.
- Since when Trump boosted tariff barriers to their highest level in more than a century, S&P 500 companies have lost over $4 trillion in stock market value.
- Total stock market losses in US more than 9 TRILLION
Trump Flip-Flop? Or Not?
- President Donald Trump said Sunday evening that he is not intentionally engineering the ongoing stock market sell-off, but said little to try and dissuade it.
- "I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday night when asked about the markets.
- Report that President Trump is considering 90 day pause in tariffs except for China
--- Market went nuts (UP) - from down 3% to up 3% in minutes - Initially White House did not confirm the report
---- What can we learn from this though?
------ A slower more deliberate plan could be beneficial - still do what you are doing, a but more surgical, less sledge-hammer policy making - Bully tactics
- Businesses - Business groups planning to challenge President Trump's tariff authority in the courts
Crypto Currencies
- Bitcoin fell below the $79,000 level as investors braced for more financial market volatility after U.S. equities suffered their worst decline since 2020 on the rollout of President Donald Trump's restrictive global tariffs.
- Etherium is down 60% YTD and much over the past several weeks
Exploding Sex Toys Plot
- Pillows, packed into the parcels with the cosmetics and sex toys, contained hidden homemade incendiary devices made of a cocktail of chemicals including highly reactive magnesium, according to the person familiar with the case who provided the most granular account yet of the alleged plot.
- Fake Cosmetics and sex toys filled with homemade explosives
- European security chiefs made the parcel fires public in October, describing them as part of a "hybrid war" being waged by Russia to destabilize the functioning of countries that support Ukraine, involving tactics like arson and cyberattacks.
Some better news?
- The U.S. Senate approved a Republican budget blueprint early on Saturday that aims to extend trillions of dollars worth of President Donald Trump's 2017 tax cuts and sharply reduce government spending.
- Non-partisan analysts say the measure, if enacted, would add about $5.7 trillion to the federal government's debt over the next decade. Senate Republicans contend the cost is $1.5 trillion, saying that the effects of extending existing tax policy that was scheduled to expire at the end of this year should not be counted in the measure's cost.
- So this is not a tax cut, it is a continuation or else we get higher taxes.
Inside Scoop
- Hearing that some of the biggest private equity players are marking down their real-estate assets by 25% and that is causing some issues
- Remember Private Equity is supposed to be the best for the long haul.
Lots of Push Back from Hedge Fund Dudes
- Billionaire investor Bill Ackman called for a 90-day "time-out" on President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs, warning of the United States bringing forth a "self-induced, economic nuclear winter."
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Annoucning the Winner of
The Closest to The Pin for
Tesla (TSLA)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
About - Peter Navarro (AI generated)
I do not like him, Sam-I-Am,
I do not trust his market jam.
I do not like his tariff fight,
It makes the numbers look less bright.
I would not take his grand advice,
For trade wars come at quite the price.
I do not like his gloomy spin,
It warps the facts deep down within.
I will not buy what he has sold,
His forecasts seem a bit too bold.
I do not like him here or there,
His views just float on empty air.
So take those eggs—green as they stand,
And let them rest in someone’s hand.
For I do not like him, Sam-I-Am,
Not with green eggs, nor with that ham!
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
View all episodes
By Horowitz and Dvorak
4.5
411411 ratings
Tariffs are killing markets.
A glimpse int what happens when we take a difference course
Markets making some of the wort moves in decades
Billionaires – all in on Trump lost billions…
WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now…Or Not…
More finesse, less sledge hammer?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Markets making some of the worst moves in decades
- Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions...
- WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not...
- More finesse, less sledge hammer?
Markets
- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday.. Oversold?
- Stock markets slammed
- President Trump discussing stocks
- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs
- VIX HITS 60!
-- A Quick Poem - Green Eggs and Navarro
--- One of the gents that responded to Vietnam's desire to have zero tariffs as "not enough"
DAX on Monday and other Markets
- Opened up down 10% - clawed back a bunch by end of the day
- European stocks down 1.5% YTD 2024
- US Stock bearing the brunt of the move
- Hong Kong (after being closed Friday) - closed Monday DOWN 13%!
- Monday in Japan, Markets halted, futures trading suspended as Nikkei and Topix plunge more than 5%
--- Follow up - then up 6% the next day
- Monday YTD US Markets:
Heads Up - Just in...
- Tuesday at 12:30PM
- 'White House Press Secretary says 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon eastern time because China has not removed it's retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow April 9th'
-Markets were trying to right themselves - up big to start the day - then this headline....
- What if - China comes back at 200%?
More:
- Tuesday afternoon : White House Secretary Karoline Leavitt answers questions on trade at briefing: President Trump not considering delay in tariffs that are due to go into effect tomorrow at 12:01 AM
- Where is the negotiation? Seems like a pissing match or bluff with unlimited funds.
If you are interested
- Rand Paul making all sorts of sense this morning
- Trades are win-win. Trade does not mean that one side has to win and one lose.
- https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/08/sen-rand-paul-on-trump-tariffs-trade-is-an-integral-part-of-capitalism.html
Stupid
- Taiwan's top financial regulator said on Sunday it will impose temporary curbs on short-selling of shares to help deal with potential market turmoil from U.S. President Donald Trump's new import tariffs, and will take other steps as needed.
- Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission said in a statement it would limit the number of shares that can be sold short and raise the minimum short-selling margin ratio to 130% from 90%, starting from Monday and lasting until Friday.
- We have seen how this plays out in the past.
More references to bluffing
- "I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they're playing with a pair of twos," Bessent said during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them."
VIX
- Hits 60 on Monday - then backs off to 45
- Not often we see a run like that.
- Still at 45 shows big concerned about near-term volatility.
--- S&P 500 top to bottom 7% move today - VIX was at 37 - back to 52
BREAK - IBKR
Billionaires losing $$
- Do we feel bad?
- Sample of losses on Liberation Day
- Zuck lost $18B
- Bezos lost $15B
What?
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Americans looking to retire aren’t concerned about day-to-day markets, dismisses concerns about a potential recession
- During an interview with NBC News' "Meet the Press," Bessent called it a "false narrative" that Americans who are close to retiring may be reticent to do so after their retirement savings may have dropped this week due to the stock market downturn.
- Remember who this is saying this:
-----Bessent played a key role in currency and fixed income markets, notably being part of the team that profited over $1 billion from the 1992 UK sterling crisis
- Bessent was a partner at Soros Fund Management
Meanwhile
- Global hedge funds and levered exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dumped more than $40 billion of stocks at a breakneck pace, growing increasingly bearish after President Donald Trump's shock announcement of harsher-than-expected global tariffs, according to bank notes to clients on Friday.
- Since when Trump boosted tariff barriers to their highest level in more than a century, S&P 500 companies have lost over $4 trillion in stock market value.
- Total stock market losses in US more than 9 TRILLION
Trump Flip-Flop? Or Not?
- President Donald Trump said Sunday evening that he is not intentionally engineering the ongoing stock market sell-off, but said little to try and dissuade it.
- "I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday night when asked about the markets.
- Report that President Trump is considering 90 day pause in tariffs except for China
--- Market went nuts (UP) - from down 3% to up 3% in minutes - Initially White House did not confirm the report
---- What can we learn from this though?
------ A slower more deliberate plan could be beneficial - still do what you are doing, a but more surgical, less sledge-hammer policy making - Bully tactics
- Businesses - Business groups planning to challenge President Trump's tariff authority in the courts
Crypto Currencies
- Bitcoin fell below the $79,000 level as investors braced for more financial market volatility after U.S. equities suffered their worst decline since 2020 on the rollout of President Donald Trump's restrictive global tariffs.
- Etherium is down 60% YTD and much over the past several weeks
Exploding Sex Toys Plot
- Pillows, packed into the parcels with the cosmetics and sex toys, contained hidden homemade incendiary devices made of a cocktail of chemicals including highly reactive magnesium, according to the person familiar with the case who provided the most granular account yet of the alleged plot.
- Fake Cosmetics and sex toys filled with homemade explosives
- European security chiefs made the parcel fires public in October, describing them as part of a "hybrid war" being waged by Russia to destabilize the functioning of countries that support Ukraine, involving tactics like arson and cyberattacks.
Some better news?
- The U.S. Senate approved a Republican budget blueprint early on Saturday that aims to extend trillions of dollars worth of President Donald Trump's 2017 tax cuts and sharply reduce government spending.
- Non-partisan analysts say the measure, if enacted, would add about $5.7 trillion to the federal government's debt over the next decade. Senate Republicans contend the cost is $1.5 trillion, saying that the effects of extending existing tax policy that was scheduled to expire at the end of this year should not be counted in the measure's cost.
- So this is not a tax cut, it is a continuation or else we get higher taxes.
Inside Scoop
- Hearing that some of the biggest private equity players are marking down their real-estate assets by 25% and that is causing some issues
- Remember Private Equity is supposed to be the best for the long haul.
Lots of Push Back from Hedge Fund Dudes
- Billionaire investor Bill Ackman called for a 90-day "time-out" on President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs, warning of the United States bringing forth a "self-induced, economic nuclear winter."
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Annoucning the Winner of
The Closest to The Pin for
Tesla (TSLA)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
About - Peter Navarro (AI generated)
I do not like him, Sam-I-Am,
I do not trust his market jam.
I do not like his tariff fight,
It makes the numbers look less bright.
I would not take his grand advice,
For trade wars come at quite the price.
I do not like his gloomy spin,
It warps the facts deep down within.
I will not buy what he has sold,
His forecasts seem a bit too bold.
I do not like him here or there,
His views just float on empty air.
So take those eggs—green as they stand,
And let them rest in someone’s hand.
For I do not like him, Sam-I-Am,
Not with green eggs, nor with that ham!
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
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