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DHUnplugged #748: Who’s to Blame?
If this wasn’t idiotic it would be funny
President Miyagi at it again – Tariff on – Tariff Off
Winning – We are Winning so much. Too much winning!
Earnings season rolls on
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- If this wasn't idiotic it would be funny
- President Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff Off
- Winning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning!
- Earnings season rolls on
- Need a new CTP stock
Markets
- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday and Tuesday - Called the near-term bottom
- Stock markets slammed
- President Trump discussing stocks
- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs
- VIX HITS 60 back UNDER 30
ANNOUNCING - One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)
Nice end to the week!
- Markets gave some hope to the idea that more exceptions were coming
- Across the board, markets gained for the week in highly volatile trade
- Last week and the week before saw extreme movements
- Bond yields (10 yr) swung between 3.7% and 4.5% (add that to historic records)
- At one point equity futures were swinging 1% every 10 minutes in average during height of volatility
Wild Ride
VIX
- Moving lower as things settle down a bit
- This is something that everyone should understand - VIX does not stay elevated forever...
- VIX moves lower as shocks expire
- Great tool for risk management and trading during wild market moves
--- Get in and out...
Not Inflationary..(wink)
- China increased tariffs to 125%
- US Increased China tariffs to 145%
--- Speaking with colleagues and business owners - they are raising prices as cannot absorb thee levels
Tariffs
- Are we sick of this discussion yet?
- hares of automakers jumped during midday trading Monday following President Donald Trump saying he's looking to "help some of the car companies."
--- Auto companies are expecting to see a drop in vehicle sales in the millions, higher new and used vehicle prices, and increased costs of more than $100 billion for the industry, according to research reports from Wall Street and automotive analysts.
- BCG expects tariffs to add $110 billion to $160 billion on an annual run rate basis in costs to the industry, which could impact 20% of U.S. new-vehicle market revenues, increasing production costs for both U.S. and non-U.S. manufacturers.
- Weekend - Some exemptions are being made for semi's, smartphones and other electronics (Shares jumped Monday)
Workaround
- Apple airlifted $2 bln worth of iPhones from India ahead of tariffs
Boeing
- Chinese airlines have been ordered not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg News reports.
Zero Day
- Newsline: Wild intraday gyrations in stocks since "liberation day" have put investors more on edge than ever, and the popularity of zero-day-to-expiration options is partly to blame.
- Zero-day-to-expiration options are contracts that expire the same day that they're traded.
- The trading volume of 0DTE options tied to the S&P 500 surged to 8.5 million in April, a 23% jump since the beginning of the year and accounting for roughly 7% of the total volume in U.S. option markets, according to data from JPMorgan.
NVDA - News Drop
- Nvidia said on Tuesday that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations.
- The H20 is an AI chip for China that was designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions. It generated an estimated $12 billion to $15 billion in revenue in 2024.
- Nvidia’s H20 chip is comparable to the H100 and H200 AI chips used in the U.S. and other countries, but it has slower interconnection speeds and bandwidth. It’s based on a previous generation of AI architecture called Hopper introduced in 2022. Nvidia is now focusing on selling its current generation of AI chips, called Blackwell.
- Nvidia said in Tuesday’s filing that the U.S. government told the company on Monday that the license requirement for H20 chips would be in effect “for the indefinite future.”
- Stock down 6% A/H
Bank Earnings
- Bank of America (BAC) posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.90 on revenue of $27.37 billion, surpassing projections of $0.82 EPS and $26.80 billion revenue.
-----CEO Brian Moynihan noted that while consumer credit and wealth management remained strong, the bank is preparing for potential economic shifts.
- Wells Fargo (WFC) reported EPS of $1.39, up from $1.20 a year ago, but revenue fell to $20.15 billion, missing estimates. ------CEO Charlie Scharf warned of a slower economy due to concerns over tariffs.
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) saw net income rise 9% to $14.6 billion, with EPS reaching $5.07, beating expectations of $4.63. The bank benefited from strong trading revenue.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) achieved record quarterly revenues of $17.7 billion, driven by investment banking and wealth management.
-----The firm attracted $93.8 billion in net new assets.
- BlackRock (BLK) reported assets under management reaching a record $11.58 trillion, though net income fell 4% to $1.5 billion.
- Goldman Sachs reported strong first-quarter earnings, with net revenues of $15.06 billion and net earnings of $4.74 billion. The firm’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $14.12, reflecting a solid performance in investment banking and trading.
----CEO David Solomon highlighted that clients continue to turn to Goldman Sachs for execution and insight, especially in uncertain market conditions
-=-=-=-=-Despite strong earnings, bank executives are expressing caution about the economic outlook, particularly regarding trade policy and potential market volatility.
CRAZY Prediction
- Maybe not so crazy
- - Navarro is going to take the blame for market madness and get shut down..
==== Especially after that reciprocal tariff calculation (5th grade economics)
Meta/Facebook
- The FTC is seeking to force Meta to restructure or sell Instagram and WhatsApp, testing President Donald Trump's promises to take on Big Tech while posing an existential threat to a company that by some estimates earns about half of its U.S. advertising revenue from Instagram.
- The FTC has pointed to emails in which Zuckerberg proposed acquiring photo-sharing app Instagram as a way to neutralize a potential Facebook competitor and expressed worry that encrypted messaging service WhatsApp could grow into a social network.
- News saying it is an EXISTENTIAL threat to the company
Eurozone Talk
- Not much movement and Europe is stating that their tariffs are staying on
- Markets did not like this on Tuesday as there was hope for quick action
- Is Europe playing the game - looking for Trump to blink there too?
Ladies who Rocket
- Blue Origin lifted off with an all girl crew
- The six-person crew also included Jeff Bezos' fiancée Lauren Sanchez, Katy Perry, CBS host Gayle King, former NASA rocket scientist Aisha Bowe, scientist Amanda Nguyen and film producer Kerianne Flynn.
Green Jacket
- Congrats to Rory McIlroy ! Masters winner and gets his green coat
- Finally gets the grans slam (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship)
- 4.2 million win for Rory - 2.26 for Justin Rose (one putt.....)
A few of these...
- Chinese bourses have set daily restrictions on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, four sources said on Friday, as Beijing steps up support for its stock markets in an intensifying trade war with the United States.
- Two investor sources said a soft limit on daily net sales by individual hedge funds and big retail investors - implemented through verbal warnings from brokerages - had been set at 50 million yuan ($6.83 million).
- Turkey banned short selling
- South Korea too (ended now)
- Thailand stopped short selling
- Taiwan imposed short selling curbs
What about King Dollar?
- US Dollar index dropped to lowest level since 2022.
- What is the reasoning?
Where are the bargains?
S&P Sectors YTD
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
The Closest to The Pin for
Tesla (TSLA)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
Tariff Blues
“The Tariff Blues”
(A little tongue-in-cheek, a little serious)
(Verse 1)
Well, I woke up this mornin’, checked the price of steel,
Looked at my bottom line, don’t know how to feel.
Tariffs keep risin’, costs outta control,
Tryna sell my goods, but it's takin’ a toll.
(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.
(Verse 2)
China’s pushin’ back, Europe’s got a plan,
Companies scramblin’, doin’ all they can.
Supply chains broken, prices climbin’ high,
All because the leaders see eye for an eye.
(Bridge)
Maybe one day, we’ll shake hands and see,
That fair trade’s better than a high-duty spree.
But ‘til that day, I’m ridin’ this storm,
Tryna keep my business alive and warm.
(Outro)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re makin’ me sigh,
Money’s flyin’ out, watchin’ profits die.
Someday we’ll fix it, but for now it’s tough,
'Cause tariff blues—man, they’re rough!
(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
View all episodes
By Horowitz and Dvorak
4.5
411411 ratings
If this wasn’t idiotic it would be funny
President Miyagi at it again – Tariff on – Tariff Off
Winning – We are Winning so much. Too much winning!
Earnings season rolls on
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- If this wasn't idiotic it would be funny
- President Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff Off
- Winning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning!
- Earnings season rolls on
- Need a new CTP stock
Markets
- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday and Tuesday - Called the near-term bottom
- Stock markets slammed
- President Trump discussing stocks
- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs
- VIX HITS 60 back UNDER 30
ANNOUNCING - One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)
Nice end to the week!
- Markets gave some hope to the idea that more exceptions were coming
- Across the board, markets gained for the week in highly volatile trade
- Last week and the week before saw extreme movements
- Bond yields (10 yr) swung between 3.7% and 4.5% (add that to historic records)
- At one point equity futures were swinging 1% every 10 minutes in average during height of volatility
Wild Ride
VIX
- Moving lower as things settle down a bit
- This is something that everyone should understand - VIX does not stay elevated forever...
- VIX moves lower as shocks expire
- Great tool for risk management and trading during wild market moves
--- Get in and out...
Not Inflationary..(wink)
- China increased tariffs to 125%
- US Increased China tariffs to 145%
--- Speaking with colleagues and business owners - they are raising prices as cannot absorb thee levels
Tariffs
- Are we sick of this discussion yet?
- hares of automakers jumped during midday trading Monday following President Donald Trump saying he's looking to "help some of the car companies."
--- Auto companies are expecting to see a drop in vehicle sales in the millions, higher new and used vehicle prices, and increased costs of more than $100 billion for the industry, according to research reports from Wall Street and automotive analysts.
- BCG expects tariffs to add $110 billion to $160 billion on an annual run rate basis in costs to the industry, which could impact 20% of U.S. new-vehicle market revenues, increasing production costs for both U.S. and non-U.S. manufacturers.
- Weekend - Some exemptions are being made for semi's, smartphones and other electronics (Shares jumped Monday)
Workaround
- Apple airlifted $2 bln worth of iPhones from India ahead of tariffs
Boeing
- Chinese airlines have been ordered not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg News reports.
Zero Day
- Newsline: Wild intraday gyrations in stocks since "liberation day" have put investors more on edge than ever, and the popularity of zero-day-to-expiration options is partly to blame.
- Zero-day-to-expiration options are contracts that expire the same day that they're traded.
- The trading volume of 0DTE options tied to the S&P 500 surged to 8.5 million in April, a 23% jump since the beginning of the year and accounting for roughly 7% of the total volume in U.S. option markets, according to data from JPMorgan.
NVDA - News Drop
- Nvidia said on Tuesday that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations.
- The H20 is an AI chip for China that was designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions. It generated an estimated $12 billion to $15 billion in revenue in 2024.
- Nvidia’s H20 chip is comparable to the H100 and H200 AI chips used in the U.S. and other countries, but it has slower interconnection speeds and bandwidth. It’s based on a previous generation of AI architecture called Hopper introduced in 2022. Nvidia is now focusing on selling its current generation of AI chips, called Blackwell.
- Nvidia said in Tuesday’s filing that the U.S. government told the company on Monday that the license requirement for H20 chips would be in effect “for the indefinite future.”
- Stock down 6% A/H
Bank Earnings
- Bank of America (BAC) posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.90 on revenue of $27.37 billion, surpassing projections of $0.82 EPS and $26.80 billion revenue.
-----CEO Brian Moynihan noted that while consumer credit and wealth management remained strong, the bank is preparing for potential economic shifts.
- Wells Fargo (WFC) reported EPS of $1.39, up from $1.20 a year ago, but revenue fell to $20.15 billion, missing estimates. ------CEO Charlie Scharf warned of a slower economy due to concerns over tariffs.
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) saw net income rise 9% to $14.6 billion, with EPS reaching $5.07, beating expectations of $4.63. The bank benefited from strong trading revenue.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) achieved record quarterly revenues of $17.7 billion, driven by investment banking and wealth management.
-----The firm attracted $93.8 billion in net new assets.
- BlackRock (BLK) reported assets under management reaching a record $11.58 trillion, though net income fell 4% to $1.5 billion.
- Goldman Sachs reported strong first-quarter earnings, with net revenues of $15.06 billion and net earnings of $4.74 billion. The firm’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $14.12, reflecting a solid performance in investment banking and trading.
----CEO David Solomon highlighted that clients continue to turn to Goldman Sachs for execution and insight, especially in uncertain market conditions
-=-=-=-=-Despite strong earnings, bank executives are expressing caution about the economic outlook, particularly regarding trade policy and potential market volatility.
CRAZY Prediction
- Maybe not so crazy
- - Navarro is going to take the blame for market madness and get shut down..
==== Especially after that reciprocal tariff calculation (5th grade economics)
Meta/Facebook
- The FTC is seeking to force Meta to restructure or sell Instagram and WhatsApp, testing President Donald Trump's promises to take on Big Tech while posing an existential threat to a company that by some estimates earns about half of its U.S. advertising revenue from Instagram.
- The FTC has pointed to emails in which Zuckerberg proposed acquiring photo-sharing app Instagram as a way to neutralize a potential Facebook competitor and expressed worry that encrypted messaging service WhatsApp could grow into a social network.
- News saying it is an EXISTENTIAL threat to the company
Eurozone Talk
- Not much movement and Europe is stating that their tariffs are staying on
- Markets did not like this on Tuesday as there was hope for quick action
- Is Europe playing the game - looking for Trump to blink there too?
Ladies who Rocket
- Blue Origin lifted off with an all girl crew
- The six-person crew also included Jeff Bezos' fiancée Lauren Sanchez, Katy Perry, CBS host Gayle King, former NASA rocket scientist Aisha Bowe, scientist Amanda Nguyen and film producer Kerianne Flynn.
Green Jacket
- Congrats to Rory McIlroy ! Masters winner and gets his green coat
- Finally gets the grans slam (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship)
- 4.2 million win for Rory - 2.26 for Justin Rose (one putt.....)
A few of these...
- Chinese bourses have set daily restrictions on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, four sources said on Friday, as Beijing steps up support for its stock markets in an intensifying trade war with the United States.
- Two investor sources said a soft limit on daily net sales by individual hedge funds and big retail investors - implemented through verbal warnings from brokerages - had been set at 50 million yuan ($6.83 million).
- Turkey banned short selling
- South Korea too (ended now)
- Thailand stopped short selling
- Taiwan imposed short selling curbs
What about King Dollar?
- US Dollar index dropped to lowest level since 2022.
- What is the reasoning?
Where are the bargains?
S&P Sectors YTD
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
The Closest to The Pin for
Tesla (TSLA)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
Tariff Blues
“The Tariff Blues”
(A little tongue-in-cheek, a little serious)
(Verse 1)
Well, I woke up this mornin’, checked the price of steel,
Looked at my bottom line, don’t know how to feel.
Tariffs keep risin’, costs outta control,
Tryna sell my goods, but it's takin’ a toll.
(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.
(Verse 2)
China’s pushin’ back, Europe’s got a plan,
Companies scramblin’, doin’ all they can.
Supply chains broken, prices climbin’ high,
All because the leaders see eye for an eye.
(Bridge)
Maybe one day, we’ll shake hands and see,
That fair trade’s better than a high-duty spree.
But ‘til that day, I’m ridin’ this storm,
Tryna keep my business alive and warm.
(Outro)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re makin’ me sigh,
Money’s flyin’ out, watchin’ profits die.
Someday we’ll fix it, but for now it’s tough,
'Cause tariff blues—man, they’re rough!
(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
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