Make up your mind - China unhappy about everything.

Yellen says inflation to cool. CPI comes in a bit better than feared.

What is in store for the end of 2022 and into 2023?

Announcing the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!

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Warm Up

- Announcing Winner of latest CTP AND Entries for the CTP Cup 2022

- China lockdowns - scaring citizens

- End of the year - Goodbye 2022 - People still concerned about 2023

- Musk boo'd ay Dave Chapelle stand-up

- China - from zero-Covid to 100% Covid

- Markets convulsing....

- Sam Bankman Fried Jailed - or just Sam Bankman NotFree or Sam Bankman Jailed

Market Update

-The S&P 500 index fell 3.4% last week as investors worried that a recent round of better-than-expected economic data might prompt the Federal Reserve to keep its key rate higher for longer.

- All of the S&P 500's sectors fell last week.

-- Energy had the largest percentage drop, down 8.4%, followed by communication services, which slid 5.4%, and consumer discretionary, which fell 4.5%. Other decliners included financials, down 3.9%; and technology and materials, which slipped 3.3% each. The smallest decline came from utilities, which edged down 0.3%.

- All eyes are the Fed meeting this week - FOMC rate decision on Thursday (75% prob of a 50 basis point hike)

- CPI Report released today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing turn of events...

2022 Exit Plan

- Investors have good deal of capital losses

- End of year could see some selling to book those deductions

- - If that happens, look for a big January Effect mid January 2023

- Investors seem mentally exhausted from 2022 - get biz done now until end of year and "hope" for a more pleasant 2023

- 2023 may be  just as volatile as Fed not done

CPI Report

- Lighter than feared - markets go bananas on the print (November Core CPI 0.2% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3%)

-  Total CPI was up "only" 7.1%, versus 7.7% in October, and core-CPI was up "only" 6.0%, versus 6.3% in October.

- 10 year moves to 3.44%, USD drops hard, Stock futures soar

- CME Fed Funds Futures at 79% for a 50 bps hike; One month ago it was at 80.6% (Meeting on Dec 14)

CPI REPORT REACTION

CPI Report Reaction

One Musk

- Got on stage at Dave Chapelle stand up concert -

- Introduced as the world's richest person (which he no longer  is - Bernie Arnault took over - LVMH)

- Supposedly significant # of people booing - (San Francisco venue)

- Video of event ripped down off of Twitter (This is the problem - what happened to free speech?)

CTP for 2022 - Past Winners Only for the CUP

Marcus Galliford

David Norman

Paul Retzlaff

Simon Lutzenberger

Michael Devietro

Matheau Phillips

Rusty Shacklefordd

DJIA is the index you will be guessing - you have until 12/21/2022 to enter.

- Emails went out to all of you

- NO ONE ELSE ENTER - Your price guess will be deleted if you are not the someone mentioned above.

Not Pretty

Fixed (Broken) Income Returns

$600 = 1099K

- Venmo, Paypal over $600 will be reported to IRS

- Supposed to be for business transactions

--- IRS admits, some personal transactions may be coded incorrectly

- - BUT, all income is required to be reported, so this impacts you if you have not been compliant

- - - ODD - Zelle is not reporting any transactions to the IRS....

-- - - - Zelle itself said it does not have to declare transactions made through the payment service because it is a network that does not hold the funds

2023 - Collection Social Security?

- "Your Social Security benefits will increase by 8.7% in 2023 because of a rise in cost of living," the Social Security Administration states in the annual statem...