Stansberry Investor Hour

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Paul Podolsky back to the show. Paul is the founder of investment management firm Kate Capital. Paul believes that while the world is complex in how it functions, it can still be understood, and he reflects that in his investing and writing.

Paul kicks things off by explaining why bond yields are rising. He says there's an increased amount of borrowing caused by the U.S. government and the AI build-out. Normally, the U.S. government would run a budget deficit during a crisis. But amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, the economy is healthy and the spending is coming from the government creating supply. Additionally, AI companies are in a "cage fight" vying for supremacy, and they're spending heavily to beat out the competition. Paul believes that folks should understand how the bond market operates because it does impact their daily lives. (0:00)

Next, Paul discusses the two sectors responsible for the majority of earnings in the S&P 500 Index: AI and oil. The conflict in the Middle East has driven the price of oil higher, resulting in the drilling companies profiting from obtaining more of it. And the bonds and debt that the AI companies are issuing will be reflected in the earnings of companies that they are servicing (i.e., a Meta Platforms bond creating earnings for Dell Technologies). Paul says that debt creates supply and the goal for the companies that take on debt is to illustrate what the future will look like. But they have to be careful that they get it right, especially when there's a lot of competition. Paul says investors need to be cautious in picking the right company and avoid taking a "basket approach" mentality. (21:07)

Finally, Paul shares how he finds new investing opportunities. He looks at data for various countries and uses AI to synthesize the information. He then looks at all the moving parts of each country (real yield, price to earnings, bond earnings) to make sense of the data. That helps him avoid risky areas and find attractive sectors. But unlike most stock investors who see it as a chance to buy more shares, Paul tries to avoid massive drawdowns. And he'll also get out of a trade if he can't understand why its price is moving (down OR up). (38:14)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Nick Hodge back to the show. Nick is the co-founder of Digest Publishing and an expert natural resource investor.

Nick kicks things off by explaining why he's still bullish on gold since the last time he was on the show. Between several fundamental drivers he sees in the market and miners producing less gold than before, he predicts the metal will keep moving higher. And he says that he owns gold in several different ways: He owns the physical metal that he keeps in the event of an emergency, and he likes to own physical trusts when the conditions are right. Nick is also bullish on copper, even more so than on gold. The threat of tariffs on copper has increased its imports, driving up prices and demand. And with data centers requiring the metal for the expanding build-out and the available mines starting to produce less supply, we could be on the cusp of a major shortage. (0:00)

Next, Nick says that while concerns with the government intervening with the available copper allocation are valid, he believes that this is one instance where there's potential upside. The government investing in new precious metals projects shows that there's demand and creates new opportunities for individual investors, even if the projects receiving support aren't the best ones. And with the federal push to see gold rise higher, Nick says there's a real chance that we could see it used as a real currency again. (17:53)

Finally, Nick states that while government leaders might claim to "be the house," the market ultimately knows best and will move where it wants to despite the government's best efforts. But if gold does soar as high as federal members would like it to, that could cause many folks' portfolios to decline. Nick says it's best to prepare for that scenario now and diversify some of your portfolio into harder assets to prevent taking substantial losses. He then shares the names and tickers of two companies that have done well for him. Ultimately, he warns listeners to take charge of their own finances, because no one else is going to look after them. (37:13)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Ben Hunt back to the show. Ben founded Epsilon Theory, a newsletter with more than 100,000 readers that examines markets through the lens of narrative. He's also the president and co-founder of Perscient, an AI research firm and software company.

Ben kicks things off by explaining why interest rates have been going up and why the rise might not be as much of a short-term event as folks believe. He says that while the war in the Middle East has contributed to the short term, there is such a surge of borrowing coming from the Big Tech companies that the government sees this as a chance to make money from it. And unlike the conflict that has no definite end date and could conclude relatively soon, the hyperscalers will be borrowing for a greater period of time. Ben says that those companies are the new "too big to fail," so they will do whatever it takes to protect themselves from a loss, including obtaining a government backstop on their debt. But he wants there to be a limit to how much the businesses can gain in the event of continued rapid success. (0:00)

Next, Ben shares why there could be concerns for annuity reinsurers. While the insurance industry can handle rising interest rates, if they increase too much, too quickly, that jeopardizes wealth managers who advise their clients to put their money in annuities. And with insurers using Treasurys as a hedge, if rates also have an impact on the Treasurys, they'll be devastated. And then, Ben wonders with all of the data-center build-out spending whether there will be room for three competitors at the top. (21:17)

Finally, Ben provides his thoughts on AI. He believes that AI is becoming so integrated into our way of life that it has changed our way of thinking. Additionally, because it has surpassed being used for labor and has reached the point where it can "think" as well as humans, occupations like mathematicians may no longer be needed, and those who pursue such fields do so as a hobby. But while AI can provide us with rapid answers and is used in writing, Ben believes that as long as the need for conversation exists, humans will always be at the center of creating – and that cannot be replaced. (37:45)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Bridget Bennett to the show. Bridget is the digital media producer for MarketBeat, where she tracks down market developments and financial news and conducts interviews for MarketBeat's videos and livestreams. In today's episode, she flips the script and interviews Dan in a special collaboration.

Bridget and Dan kick things off by discussing diesel. Dan says that the commodity sits at the heart of the global energy crisis. And while the lack of diesel fuel will impact fuel for vehicles and powering electricity, there are shortages in other areas as well, such as copper (and, as a result, homebuilding). Between America's diminishing supply and the war in Iran, refiners have been doing well over the past year. Dan says existing owners of refinery stocks should do well as they hold their shares, but he's being cautious about the future as President Donald Trump's plans on banning imports without building new refiners could have a negative impact. (0:00)

Next, the two expand further on the different impacts that the diesel shortage brings. Dan says that the conflict in the Middle East is having a devastating impact on oil production. Not only has production ceased at thousands of Middle East wells, but in many cases, the wells will require expensive rehabilitation because they were shut down so fast. Additionally, AI data centers are voracious consumers of copper. This growing demand is creating a buying opportunity that Dan says you should consider if you're looking at the metal, plus he gives the names of several tickers worth investing in. (18:24)

Finally, Bridget and Dan examine the repercussions of halting U.S. production rare earths and the push to bring it back. The initial offshoring of production due to excessive pollution prevented the U.S. from properly adapting the pollution protocols that companies now utilize, and Dan believes that, in the long term, it was an unwise decision. Dan then talks about gold and the U.S. dollar. Dan says that since the two were untethered, the dollar is going to continue losing value as more money is printed, while gold retains its value. However, as a global currency, the U.S. dollar will be much stronger than competing currencies like the euro, yen, and pound. And Dan says that you should own both dollars and gold. (32:34)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Rob Spivey back to the show. Rob is the director of research at our corporate affiliate Altimetry. He and his team utilize their proprietary Uniform Accounting strategy to dig through the as-reported numbers in company reports to find their true value.

Rob kicks things off by providing a deep dive into Altimetry's Defense Gold Rush webinar. In short, the Association of the United States Army ("AUSA") is hosting its annual confab in October. And it's not just the U.S. Army meeting up with the defense companies – other countries from around the world also attend with the goal of striking a deal with some of our nation's weapons manufacturers. So this is the best place to learn where the contracts are being made and where the money is flowing. But Rob says that it's not the big businesses you should be paying attention to, but the smaller ones. (0:00)

Next, Rob explains why microcaps are some of the best businesses that provide growth opportunities. The majority of stocks in the S&P 500 and S&P 100 indexes were once microcaps, and if you can find a company that has the same potential and value, your investment could soar. But Rob understands why folks are cautious of microcaps – there are some bad apples out there. That's why he and Altimetry Chief Investment Officer Joel Litman created a "Do Not Buy" list of stocks that investors should avoid unless they make tremendous improvements. And Rob says that we haven't seen such a great opportunity in defense stocks since the 1980s. (19:25)

Finally, Rob discusses the U.S. government's $40 trillion debt and why it's not as bad as people believe. The U.S.'s revenue is able to offset its debt, so it can afford to take on that amount. Additionally, Rob says that every American should want the government to run a reasonable deficit every year. That creates value for us as citizens by growing our economy. And Rob says that folks are mistaken for selling off the hyperscalers just because they've become net debtors. (34:03)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Joel Litman back to the show. Joel is the founder and chief investment officer of our corporate affiliate Altimetry, where his team uses their Uniform Accounting system to look beyond the as-reported numbers in financial reports to see how companies are really performing.

Joel kicks things off by discussing the increases in the U.S. military budget and says that investors should be wary of which stocks they decide to buy. While overall military spending has gone up, certain branches like the Army have seen a decrease in spending, so it's vital to put your money to work in the right sector. Joel then shares that despite concerns over America's munitions being down and our supply-chain reliance on China, many companies are innovating to either break away completely by manufacturing what they need or substitute materials or products to achieve similar results. And Joel says that AI woes are overblown because of a few questionable stocks. (0:00)

Next, Joel explains why Altimetry uses Uniform Accounting and why serious accountants don't rely on generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") data alone. In short, GAAP accounting has become increasingly unreliable due to its many changes that misrepresent how a company is truly performing. Uniform Accounting cuts through the noise and creates a set standard to determine how well a business did during earnings season. And while the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio says the market is expensive, Joel says that metric is flawed and that the market is actually cheap. (17:54)

Finally, Joel shares the dynamics and problems with buying IPOs. The greatest issue is not having enough financial data and having to wait months before you know enough details to judge if a company is worth investing in. Joel then mentions one major defense business that he's interested in and believes will do well. But he says the better opportunities are in the smaller companies. These are cheaper stocks that have more room to grow and, therefore, have potential for better returns. And while these are the kind of businesses that Warren Buffett would own, investors don't have to compete with him to buy them. (40:08)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Bryan Beach back to the show. Bryan is the senior analyst for Whitney Tilson's Ultimate Upside and a senior analyst on Stansberry's Investment Advisory.

Bryan kicks things off by discussing what's new in the Whitney Tilson's Ultimate Upside newsletter (previously Venture Value). Both Bryan and Whitney have teamed up to develop a new system built upon the proprietary Stansberry Score that further helps subscribers find overlooked, high-value stocks that have room to grow. The three newest recommendations that their new system discovered are already performing well. And Bryan warns of the belief that a stock is cheaply valued when it returns so little. (0:00)

Next, Bryan shares how peer groups aren't as easy to identify as many folks believe, especially in technology or consulting companies. While a business might offer a product that competes with another company, its other services might not be related at all. And with small caps, it's even harder to find a true peer due to differing business practices. So Bryan and Whitney look at historical valuations to compare them instead. Bryan then shares how his views on the utilization of technology, such as the Stansberry Score, in investing have changed after finding one company he wouldn't have considered without it. (23:29)

Finally, Bryan mentions how Whitney's connections help provide an edge in learning more about a company and to gain wisdom that has been built up over decades of experience. One lesson that Bryan learned is that you don't need to be completely rigid in your philosophies. Near the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he thought it might be best to recommend energy stocks in Venture Value to hedge against that , despite the fact that they weren't value stocks. And Bryan expanded upon Whitney's idea for the Ultimate Upside. (38:41)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Ramin Nakisa to the show. Ramin is the co-founder of PensionCraft, a service that's geared toward providing members with the tools and information needed to make their own informed investing decisions.

Ramin kicks things off by explaining his reason for switching from a global equity portfolio to a fixed equity 60/40 portfolio. He says that after spending years investing and building up to his retirement goal, he wanted to take as much risk and volatility off the table as possible and just coast off the fixed income. And while folks tend to paint fixed income with a broad stroke, he says that it's actually nuanced. With multiple facets and sectors within fixed equity, there are noteworthy investments to consider. Ramin also gives a deep dive on the purpose of PensionCraft and what he wants members to take away from his service. (0:00)

Next, Ramin details why folks should get the "big picture" of the financial news and reports rather than try to delve into every nitty-gritty detail. Then he has a deep discussion on the Federal Reserve. While the speeches might be technical, he thinks investors can glean some insight. He also finds it interesting from a British perspective that American investors are more willing to lend money to "dot-com businesses" than to the U.S. government (by buying government bonds). While at the moment they might have moats, eventually competitors will undercut them and take their positions. And he gives his take on "passive" investing, saying that while more passive investors are emerging, there's no need to be concerned about that hurting the market in the long term. (21:44)

Finally, Ramin shares his thoughts on the hypothetical scenario of the S&P 500 Index crashing 50%. He says that despite the massive fear that it would bring, he sees that as a great buying opportunity. The markets will eventually correct, and anyone who bought during the discount will have made substantial returns. Then Ramin details why he formed his 90/10 core fund asset and his logic behind it. (40:01)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Jason Shapiro back to the show. Jason is the founder of Crowded Market Report and a seasoned futures trader with a proven approach built on exploiting crowd behavior. He has more than 10,000 subscribers on his Substack.

Jason kicks things off by detailing three signals he focuses on when he wants to make a contrarian play against what the market's doing. He executes this strategy by looking for extremes in a bearish position and waits for the market to start heading in the opposite direction before making a short-term trade. But Jason emphasizes that being a contrarian isn't just about betting against the market. To be successful, you have to understand market tone, which is the sentiment that confirms your thesis is correct, and a position has reached its lowest point before it starts improving. But he only makes trades if he likes the potential risk to reward. (0:00)

Next, Jason explains the difference in focus between professional traders and novice traders. The professionals like to focus on risk to mitigate losses, while the novices focus on maximizing profits that they might not even make. And even if they are successful a few times, over the long term, they're going to lose most of the time. And that's why Jason says that you need to know why you're trading. If you know that, you become more disciplined in making trades. Jason then describes how Crowded Market Report has encouraged him to become a better trader. (19:11)

Finally, Jason shares the story of the time he spent living with monks, which gave him some perspective on life. It didn't fully resonate with him at the time, but over the years, he has learned to emphasize happiness over money, and that has given him personal satisfaction in life. He then explains why he decided to run Crowded Market Report by himself and expresses the freedom that brings. He ends things by giving listeners a dire warning about believing that they can outsmart the market. (38:46)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Jim Bianco to the show. Jim is the president of Bianco Research. Since 1990, Jim's commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets.

Jim kicks things off by explaining a post he made on social media platform X, where he stated that bond traders could stop panicking once the Federal Reserve starts to panic. In short, over the past two years, when the Fed was cutting rates to curb inflation, yields on bonds have risen. So Jim believes that bond investors don't need to be worried if the Fed decides to cut rates later this year. He then discusses the dollar's position as the global reserve currency and says that regardless of anyone's plans, it cannot be toppled until another currency exists that can sufficiently replace it. (0:00)

Next, Jim shares why the bond market is the most important market – even if it isn't the most profitable one. He says that it sets the price of money, and every other investment is dependent on that basis for determining value. However, money needs to be priced properly. It cannot be too high or too low, or you'll encounter economic problems. And while Jim doesn't believe that we're currently close to a credit crisis, one could emerge without warning. (20:49)

Finally, Jim reveals his fears about persistent 3% to 4% inflation. He says that the Fed will eventually respond by raising interest rates, which will make money more expensive. Additionally, he believes that economic expansions are "murdered," which is succeeded by a recession and a fundamental change in the economy (a recent example being remote work being a common practice following the COVID-19 pandemic). And Jim says that a lot of folks aren't measuring inflation properly. He says the prices of services should be measured, not goods – and those have been rising rapidly. (36:51)