Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Investor Hour

By Stansberry Research

From financial markets and politics to business and social issues, Dan Ferris and our Stansberry Analysts offer candid discussion on today's most important headlines. Each week you'll hear exclusive i... more

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Best of Stansberry Investor Hour

The most played episodes among Podcast App listeners.

  1. Number 1: Jason Shapiro: Most Traders Are Focused on the Wrong Thing

    In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Jason Shapiro back to the show. Jason is the founder of Crowded Market Report and a seasoned futures trader with a proven approach built on exploiting crowd behavior. He has more than 10,000 subscribers on his Substack. Jason kicks things off by detailing three signals he focuses on when he wants to make a contrarian play against what the market's doing. He executes this strategy by looking for extremes in a bearish position and waits for the market to start heading in the opposite direction before making a short-term trade. But Jason emphasizes that being a contrarian isn't just about betting against the market. To be successful, you have to understand market tone, which is the sentiment that confirms your thesis is correct, and a position has reached its lowest point before it starts improving. But he only makes trades if he likes the potential risk to reward. (0:00) Next, Jason explains the difference in focus between professional traders and novice traders. The professionals like to focus on risk to mitigate losses, while the novices focus on maximizing profits that they might not even make. And even if they are successful a few times, over the long term, they're going to lose most of the time. And that's why Jason says that you need to know why you're trading. If you know that, you become more disciplined in making trades. Jason then describes how Crowded Market Report has encouraged him to become a better trader. (19:11) Finally, Jason shares the story of the time he spent living with monks, which gave him some perspective on life. It didn't fully resonate with him at the time, but over the years, he has learned to emphasize happiness over money, and that has given him personal satisfaction in life. He then explains why he decided to run Crowded Market Report by himself and expresses the freedom that brings. He ends things by giving listeners a dire warning about believing that they can outsmart the market. (38:46)

    56min
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  2. Number 2: Peter Zeihan: The Next Global Crisis Could Hit Investors Hard

    In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Peter Zeihan to the show. Peter specializes in geopolitics and brings a critical perspective on how foreign affairs impact the U.S. market. Peter kicks things off by discussing why the market hasn't reacted or improved in response to the peace talks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. He says the reason is threefold. First, the White House acted with very little planning, only using Israeli intel and data. What was supposed to last no more than 96 hours was drawn out into a monthslong conflict. Second, Peter says that President Donald Trump fired numerous ambassadors and policy experts with the intention of not refilling those seats. This has made negotiating more difficult. And third, turning the oilfields back on will take months at best. Peter then says that due to comments made by the Trump administration, Europeans have a growing mistrust of America and are seeing it as a potential enemy. (0:00) Next, Peter delves into Ukraine and its usage of drones in the war. Drones have and are continuing to become so advanced that Peter considers them part of what he calls the "second revolution of military technology." They're now capable of making decisions on what to target once they arrive at a destination area and cannot be jammed once they've made a decision. And the first-generation ground drones in development could be a game changer for Ukraine. Following this, Peter gives an update on a video he made titled "Don't Be Fooled. China Is Collapsing." He says the Chinese population numbers are not as high as stated, partially due to millions of citizens in the census having possibly been fabricated. Unlike the U.S. and other Western countries, China only has several "touchpoints" that determine that a citizen exists, and these have had falsified numbers in the past. While the official numbers might provide a false sense of security, the population decline will have a massive impact on the country. (17:20) Finally, Peter shares his thoughts on a major transition period. He says that this will be a time of short-term pain, but in the long run, the countries that could weather the storm and emerge first would be the big winners in the new era. The United States was one potential winner, but with hostile work environments with other countries (in addition to globalization universally deteriorating) and an aging power grid, it's facing strong headwinds. Peter says the country will need to double its efforts in manufacturing at home if it wants to have a chance of surviving without other countries, especially if trade slows down or is even severed. (35:16)

    57min
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  3. Number 3: Ramin Nakisa: The 90/10 Portfolio Strategy Every Investor Should Know

    In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Ramin Nakisa to the show. Ramin is the co-founder of PensionCraft, a service that's geared toward providing members with the tools and information needed to make their own informed investing decisions. Ramin kicks things off by explaining his reason for switching from a global equity portfolio to a fixed equity 60/40 portfolio. He says that after spending years investing and building up to his retirement goal, he wanted to take as much risk and volatility off the table as possible and just coast off the fixed income. And while folks tend to paint fixed income with a broad stroke, he says that it's actually nuanced. With multiple facets and sectors within fixed equity, there are noteworthy investments to consider. Ramin also gives a deep dive on the purpose of PensionCraft and what he wants members to take away from his service. (0:00) Next, Ramin details why folks should get the "big picture" of the financial news and reports rather than try to delve into every nitty-gritty detail. Then he has a deep discussion on the Federal Reserve. While the speeches might be technical, he thinks investors can glean some insight. He also finds it interesting from a British perspective that American investors are more willing to lend money to "dot-com businesses" than to the U.S. government (by buying government bonds). While at the moment they might have moats, eventually competitors will undercut them and take their positions. And he gives his take on "passive" investing, saying that while more passive investors are emerging, there's no need to be concerned about that hurting the market in the long term. (21:44) Finally, Ramin shares his thoughts on the hypothetical scenario of the S&P 500 Index crashing 50%. He says that despite the massive fear that it would bring, he sees that as a great buying opportunity. The markets will eventually correct, and anyone who bought during the discount will have made substantial returns. Then Ramin details why he formed his 90/10 core fund asset and his logic behind it. (40:01)

    57min
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  4. Number 4: James Bianco: The Fed Is Cutting Rates – So Why Are Yields Going Up?

    In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Jim Bianco to the show. Jim is the president of Bianco Research. Since 1990, Jim's commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Jim kicks things off by explaining a post he made on social media platform X, where he stated that bond traders could stop panicking once the Federal Reserve starts to panic. In short, over the past two years, when the Fed was cutting rates to curb inflation, yields on bonds have risen. So Jim believes that bond investors don't need to be worried if the Fed decides to cut rates later this year. He then discusses the dollar's position as the global reserve currency and says that regardless of anyone's plans, it cannot be toppled until another currency exists that can sufficiently replace it. (0:00) Next, Jim shares why the bond market is the most important market – even if it isn't the most profitable one. He says that it sets the price of money, and every other investment is dependent on that basis for determining value. However, money needs to be priced properly. It cannot be too high or too low, or you'll encounter economic problems. And while Jim doesn't believe that we're currently close to a credit crisis, one could emerge without warning. (20:49) Finally, Jim reveals his fears about persistent 3% to 4% inflation. He says that the Fed will eventually respond by raising interest rates, which will make money more expensive. Additionally, he believes that economic expansions are "murdered," which is succeeded by a recession and a fundamental change in the economy (a recent example being remote work being a common practice following the COVID-19 pandemic). And Jim says that a lot of folks aren't measuring inflation properly. He says the prices of services should be measured, not goods – and those have been rising rapidly. (36:51)

    1h 1min
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  5. Number 5: Harvey Sawikin: He Bought This AI Stock at $8 – Now It's $240

    In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Harvey Sawikin to the show. Harvey is the co-founder and principal of Firebird Management, a fund that focuses on investing in emerging markets, primarily in Eastern Europe. Harvey kicks things off by stating that emerging market investors don't pay enough attention to politics compared with macroeconomics. He says that you can glean insight into how a country could develop if you understand its politics, especially in cases where there's new leadership. But it's still important to understand the macroeconomics, as those have been red flags for otherwise promising markets. And he shares why folks would want to invest in emerging markets despite strong growth in American companies. (0:00) Next, Harvey explains how emerging markets view the dollar. If a country exports commodities, it might not care about the strength of the dollar. Additionally, some exporting countries might prefer to have a slightly weaker currency to look more appealing compared with U.S. companies, so traders use the local currency to invest in these markets. Harvey then gives his background with investing in AI companies (with one that went from $8 a share to $240 a share) and his thoughts on the technology. (22:38) Finally, Harvey informs listeners that it's OK to be cautious during the AI frenzy. No one knows where the peak of the hype will be, but it might be beneficial to avoid throwing all your money at AI (especially AI companies where you can't even tell what their product is). Harvey believes that patience is the key to successfully navigating the markets, and when everyone is bullish, it's even more crucial. But at the end of the day, it's up to the individual investor – not someone pushing a stock or fund – to determine when they want to get into a position. (40:01)

    1h
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