Greatest scam ever! Keep em' FAT!

2023 outlook - what comes next.

Updates on New Years and the weather in Cali.

Announcing the winner of the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!

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Warm Up

- Back at it! Happy New Year

- Fed still walking the walk

- Monday - Holiday

- Greatest scam ever! Keep em' FAT!

- New Speaker - Wore them down - McCarthy !

Market Update

- Rolling over into the EOY 2022

- Lots of talk about Higher Rates for Longer

- 3.5% Unemployment?

- Earnings start to roll in this week - JPM, WFC, C, BAC

- Recession - Yield Curve Still Inverted, Key Indicators Rolled over

California weather update

- What is going on?

 Asset Classes 2022

Asset Class 2022

Sectors  2022

Sectors 2022

S&P 500 Valuations

Simple Math

- 2 components of valuations made easy - earnings and confidence growth can be maintained

- Earnings - last year $215 - exp 2023 $225

- Multiple = Confidence of Growth (Currently at 17 forward)

- Recessions usually under 15 (way under)

Simple Math

Employment Report

- Better (lower) wage growth got markets moving

- 3.5% unemployment (from 3.7%)

- 235k +/- jobs added

- Manufacturing jobs lagging

- Markets offsided - moved up big after report digested

- US Dollar sank, metals rose, Yields came in

GDP Report

- Latest quarter shows expansion - but....

ISM Blended Composite

- Services finally moved under 50 - full contraction now

ISM Composite

Da' Fed

- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday stressed that central bank policymakers remain committed to wrestling high inflation under control, even though the methods to do so can prove to be politically unpopular.

- Speech today seems to warn that the Fed is not going to back down, even if it hurts the economy.

- "Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time," Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery at a conference held by Sweden's central bank. "But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy."

Musk News

- Richard Branson said that Elon showed up on his kitchen at 2:30 am ?

- Branson said he woke up in the middle of the night to find the SpaceX CEO barefoot in his kitchen downstairs with his fast asleep baby X Æ A-12 after a staff member had let him in. WHAT?????????????

- TESLA - Cut prices in China - Backlash!

---- Elon Musk was the second person ever to amass a personal fortune of more than $200 billion, breaching that threshold in January 2021, months after Jeff Bezos.

----- The Tesla Inc. chief executive officer has now achieved a first of his own: becoming the only person in history to erase $200 billion from their net worth.

TESLA

---- Disgruntled Tesla Inc. owners swarmed showrooms in China over the weekend to complain about missing out on another round of price cuts as the company tries to boost sales in the world’s biggest electric-vehicle market.

- Meanwhile - Tesla's Chinese suppliers jumped after the electric automaker slashed prices for some models in China.

---- Now almost 40% cheaper in China as compared to US prices)

----- Price cuts as China ends EV subsidy (news pounded China EV plays)

- Shares of Anhui Shiny Electronic Technology closed 8.8% higher and Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics gained nearly 9%. Zhejiang China Electrics closed 7.92% higher and Shandong Jinjing Science & Tech rose more than 6%.

Wells Fargo

- Instead of its previous goal of reaching as many Americans as possible, the company will now focus on home loans for existing bank an...