In today’s beef buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Oklahoma State University Extension livestock market economist Dr. Darrell Peel to dig further into the latest cattle inventory numbers and what they really say about where the industry stands. Peel summed up the new report simply, saying it’s the “same story, next chapter,” noting that while producers keep searching for a turning point, “we really haven’t changed the fundamentals” of the cattle cycle yet.

Peel emphasized that the industry still can’t confirm a bottom in the herd cycle. “Honestly, we still can’t say for sure that we’ve got a low in this inventory cycle,” he explained, adding that it could take another year before that becomes clear. While the report did show a slight increase in beef replacement heifers, Peel cautioned that it’s “not enough to indicate significant growth,” suggesting the industry may simply be in a flat spot before eventually changing direction—a process that could still leave meaningful expansion “two or three years away.”

Looking at state-by-state numbers, Peel noted limited signs of growth in key cattle regions. “If you look at the top 10 beef cow states… only three of them showed a positive year-over-year change,” he said. Oklahoma was one of those, with inventories up just four-tenths of a percent, while major states like Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri all declined. According to Peel, ongoing drought concerns are a major factor, saying “drought conditions or lingering drought threats is a significant factor affecting producers’ willingness to get very aggressive.”

Despite strong markets, Peel said caution continues to dominate decision-making. “Everybody is enjoying these markets, but they’re still not necessarily running out there changing their approach,” he observed. He described the current mindset with one word: “caution.” Comparing today’s situation to the rapid rebuild 10–12 years ago, Peel said this cycle looks very different, adding, “This one looks like it’s going to be one of the slowest herd rebuilds.”

As he takes this message back to Southern Plains producers, Peel encouraged them to capitalize on today’s incentives. “The market is really focused on cow-calf… it’s providing incentives in terms of these record calf prices,” he said. Whether producers choose to hold back heifers, buy bred heifers, or even proven bred cows, Peel believes there’s flexibility. “I think we’re going to be in pretty good market conditions for probably much of the rest of the decade,” he added, reminding producers that with calves worth what they are today, “it’s worth some extra effort to keep those babies alive.”

Coverage of CattleCon26 is powered by Farm Data Services of Stillwater, Oklahoma.

The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.

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