In today’s Beef Buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with meteorologist and atmospheric scientist Matt Makens, who is tracking a critical weather transition that could shape moisture patterns, drought recovery, and even pest risks for cattle producers across the Southern Plains.
From La Niña to El Niño: A Slow Shift Ahead
Makens says producers can expect a wetter pattern eventually—but not right away.
“The long-term outlook does get wetter. Oklahoma, the whole region, does get wetter, but we have to wait for it to get that way,” he explained. “In the short term… we’ve got fire issues, we’ve got a lot of drought… and recent wind events that have dried things out even more.”
That transition from La Niña to El Niño is underway, but timing remains uncertain.
“This is the transition that we’ve chatted about for months, and the speed of it… we’re still watching,” Makens said. “The oceans are rapidly warming, and what does that do? It drives the atmosphere to make a change.”
Why the Moisture Won’t Arrive Immediately
Even as ocean temperatures signal a shift, Makens cautions producers not to expect immediate relief.
“It will not be an immediate change. It takes time for the atmosphere to look at the ocean… and finally get into that position,” he said.
For 2026, that means the more favorable moisture pattern likely won’t fully develop until later in the year.
“For this season, we’re not looking for those changes to really set in until perhaps late summer, but more likely fall,” he said. “People will hear the term El Niño… and expect, ‘why is it still dry?’”
Growing Confidence—and Talk of a ‘Super’ Event
Makens says confidence in the forecast continues to increase as more data comes in.
“It increases day to day, because we’re able to see the ocean truly warming up as much as some of the modeling indicated,” he said. “We’re seeing all of these clues or puzzle pieces coming together.”
That includes the possibility of a stronger-than-normal event.
“There’s a high likelihood for El Niño, and there’s a substantial element of that for a super El Niño,” Makens said. “Just meaning a super strong event.”
Stronger events typically improve precipitation odds, especially later in the year.
“The stronger the El Niño can theoretically spread a lot more moisture across us, especially in the fall and winter months,” he added.
Tropical Systems: A Missing Piece for Spring and Summer Relief
Despite the long-term outlook, Makens says meaningful moisture in the near term may depend on a less predictable factor.
“That would be what we would need… to really help the spring or even early summer,” he said, referring to tropical systems moving inland from the Gulf.
However, he notes those odds are declining.
“How the oceans have been warming up… is reducing the odds of getting such a tropical system,” Makens said. “There’s never going to be a zero percent… but we’re reducing it greatly for this spring and summer.”
Weather Patterns and the Risk of New World Screwworm
Beyond rainfall, Makens has also studied how weather conditions could influence the spread of the New World screwworm if it re-enters the U.S.
“If the fly arrives, do we have an environment… that favors its spread?” he said. “The super long story short is… yes.”
Makens explained that temperature, rainfall, and wind patterns all play a role.
“They love certain temperature thresholds, certain amount of rainfall… and yes… the fly could theoretically be along a huge area of the U.S., mostly the southern U.S., but in theory could go well northward.”
A key concern is the North American Monsoon, which could help carry the pest deeper into cattle country.
“These flies seem to love to use that to their advantage—like wind at their backs—to push them north,” he said. “We have to watch out the monsoon season very closely.”
Watching the Winds Moving Forward
Historical patterns reinforce that concern.
“We can track the northward spread during the monsoon because of those seasonal wind flows,” Makens said. “And what we’ve seen here the last several months is reports… getting closer and closer to the border.”
With seasonal winds soon shifting, Makens says vigilance will be key.
“We’re about to change that seasonal wind flow to come more out of the south,” he said.
As producers navigate drought, fire risk, and uncertain moisture in the months ahead, Makens emphasizes that while relief is likely coming, patience—and close attention to weather patterns—will be essential.
The post El Niño Transition Brings Hope for Rain but Near-Term Drought Concerns Persist first appeared on Oklahoma Farm Report.