In today’s beef buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Lance Zimmerman of Rabobank. As 2025 concludes, the central industry question is whether the U.S. will finally see signs of herd expansion. Zimmerman stresses that this remains the foundation of long-term production growth. He points out that despite political pressure to lower beef prices through short-term trade approaches, producers understand that “the only way we’re going to significantly move that needle is right here at home with the cow herd rebuild.”

Zimmerman illustrates the long biological timeline required to rebuild. He explains that a heifer retained today will not replace her own production loss until well into the future: “won’t produce the beef in a retail meat case that replaces her loss until September of 2028… It’d be September of 2029 before she produces additional beef beyond replacing herself.” Because of that delay, he emphasizes that current retention levels are still modest: “we’re only kind of dipping our toe in heifer retention this year.”

Despite economic pressure, Zimmerman encourages producers to think strategically about retaining females. He reminds them that profitability potential is strong. Even high cull-cow values should not overshadow longer-term opportunity, as he notes “that calf in her is worth $2,000 next year as well.” His message: creative herd-preservation now can sustain future profitability.

A major part of rebuilding also involves succession decisions. Zimmerman reflects on past generational transitions, stating that “what’s fair isn’t always equal, and what’s equal isn’t always fair,” especially when only some children remain in the operation. Many older producers fear they will not see the payoff from rebuilding, and Zimmerman acknowledges that “herd rebuilding is going to happen with a very small group of producers,” describing it as a “two-circle Venn diagram” where only those young enough and those large or capitalized enough overlap to drive expansion.

Finally, Zimmerman explains that today’s cattle cycle is more complex and financially demanding. With bred heifers costing around $4,000, he argues that “we’re going to have to go through a recalibration at every phase of the cattle producing segment.” Profit expectations must shift, because “working for a hundred-dollar profit today doesn’t ring the same when you have that much of a cash outlay.” This structural transition, he says, is why rebuilding the U.S. cow herd will be slow and concentrated among a limited subset of producers.

The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.

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