John Perlman chats to Election Analyst Wayne Sussman, about what the latest by elections prove for the MK party being able to compete beyond Kwa-Zulu Natal. The ANC retained Ward 4 in eMbalenhle near Secunda in the Govan Mbeki municipality. Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe party took votes away from the ANC and the EFF to finish in second place in its Mpumalanga debut. Ward 4 (eMbalenhle) in Govan Mbeki in Gert Sibande in Mpumalanga: ANC 51% (56% PR) MK 28% EFF 18% (26% PR) IFP 3% (1% PR) SKCP <1% (1% PR) TRUTH 0

The setting: eMbalenhle, which is west of the town of Secunda, sits on the R546 road which links Kinross with Charl Cilliers. Zulu is the most widely spoken language. Govan Mbeki also includes Bethal and Leandra. This part of Mpumalanga is also known as the Highveld Ridge. The municipality is part of the Gert Sibande district.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC had a tough challenge from an independent candidate on the ward ballot, with the party getting 44% while the independent won just under one-third of the vote. The EFF came third with 18%. On the proportional representation (PR) ballot, the ANC beat the EFF by 30%. The DA was third on the PR ballot with 7%.

The ANC lost its outright majority in Govan Mbeki, shedding 10 seats as it declined from 36 to 26 in the 63-seat council. The DA grew from 15 to 17. The EFF consolidated its position as the third-largest party in the municipality by growing from nine seats to 13. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) was fourth with a three-seat haul. The Azania Resident Party (ARP) won two seats while the IFP and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) claimed one each.

The ANC made an agreement with the EFF to ensure it continued to govern the municipality.

The by-election: Simphiwe Sindelo, the ward councillor, was shot dead alongside FA Nogwanya, a ward committee member, in early December. In 2022 he survived an attempt on his life when five gunmen shot at his car and his home. No one has been arrested for the murder.

The ANC and EFF were joined on the ballot by Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, which was making its Mpumalanga debut, the IFP, the local the Singukukhanya Kwezwe Christian Party (SKCP) and the Truth and Solidarity Movement (TRUTH). The independent candidate who won 32% of the

vote in 2021 did not contest the by-election, hence the use of the previous PR percentage as the mode of comparison rather than the ward ballot.

The ANC beat the MK Party by 244 votes in an election where both the ruling party and the EFF lost some ground. MK beat the EFF by 105 votes. At Tholukwazi Primary School the ANC lost a little ground as its vote share went from 57% to 53%. MK won a third of the vote in this district, while the EFF declined from 25% to 10%. At eMbalenhle Primary School the ANC’s vote went from 55% to 48%. EFF finished second here with a small improvement from 27% to 29%. MK was third in the district with a credible 22%

This result suggests that MK can also, at the very least, compete in provinces beyond KwaZulu-Natal where Zulu is widely spoken. This is a very encouraging result for the new party. It will also focus strongly on other parts of Mpumalanga and Gauteng since it will believe it can make strong inroads there.

Mehmet Vefa Dag’s TRUTH had a poor Mpumalanga debut. Its candidate, Sabelo Nkosi, did not even vote for himself as the party received zero votes.

Poll: 42% (48% PR)

Next by-elections

The next round of by-elections will be on 13 March when the ANC will defend three marginal seats in Newcastle, KwaZulu-Natal, and a safe seat in uMshwati (Wartburg area), as well as a competitive seat in Emfuleni (Vereeniging) in Gauteng, and a safe seat in Moretele (Makapanstad).

The MK Party will not be on the ballot in the next round. DM

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The bail application of the five suspects linked to the murders of rapper Kiernan ‘AKA’ Forbes and his friend Tebello ‘Tibz’ Motsoane has been postponed to next Wednesday. The group is facing charges of murder, attempted murder and unlawful possession of firearms among others. Thursday marked their first appearance in the Durban Magistrates Court. The State is said to oppose the bail. When the court proceedings started, five of the seven suspects linked to the killing of rapper AKA and his friend Tibz appeared wearing face masks not wanting to be identified. The rapper and his former manager were shot and killed outside a Durban restaurant in February 2023. The five men appeared in a packed courtroom in the presence of police top brass. State prosecutor advocate Lawrence Gcaba said the state would need a postponement for further investigations in the case. National Prosecuting Authority spokesperson Natasha Ramkisson-Kara: “They are charged with two counts of murder, five counts of attempted murder, unlawful possession of a firearm, unlawful possession ammunition as well as conspiracy to commit murder.” Among the people who attended the brief proceedings were AKA's father Tony Forbes, KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi as well as Police Minister Bheki Cele. The case was remanded to the 6 March for bail application.

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John Perlman chats to eNCA Senior Reporter Dasen Thathiah, about the structure and profile of the team assembled to assassinate AKA,, with Tebello Motsoane dying as a consequence of that action. 

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John Perlman chats to former SAPS, and Private Investigator Wouter De Swardt about what its like behind the scenes when investigating a murder case. 

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John Perlman chats to Keegan Leech, Africa Check Researcher, about an initiative to combat misinformation ahead of the South African Elections. 

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John Perlman chats to Collen Dlamini, Secretary General of the Copyright Coalition of South Africa, about why there are so many objections to the Copyright Amendment Bill being signed into law. 

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John chats to a lawyer Gareth Prince about the National Council of Provinces passing the Cannabis for Private Purposes Bill, which is set to introduce a new set of regulations to determine the legal usage, cultivation and transportation of dagga. 

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John Perlman chats to Makashule Gana, Chief Organiser for Rise Mzansi  about why they have written to the IEC CEO Sy Mamabolo requesting an urgent meeting to discuss their disgruntlement with the elections timetable. 

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John Perlman chat to Layckan Van Gensen, Junior Lecturer in Mercantile Law at Stellenbosch University, about how important it is to protect your online image so that you do not fall victim to deepfakes. 

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John Perlman chats to Dr Morne du Plessis, CEO of the WWF South Africa about the significant increase in Rhino poaching, with a massive increase in the KZN area

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