GoodFellows: Conversations on Economics, History & Geopolitics

Much like the fragile parchment on which a new republic’s principles and grievances were outlined, America’s Declaration of Independence endures to this day – quite the accomplishment given a Continental Congress struggling to help George Washington wage war and a few Founding Fathers who’d rather not have been in Philadelphia that summer (beginning with Thomas Jefferson). Michael Auslin, a Hoover Institution distinguished research fellow and author of National Treasure: How the Declaration of Independence Made America, discusses whether the “spirit of ‘76” is alive and well in 2026. 

After that: the fellows address the possibility of a disruptive “October Surprise” in advance of America’s November election – if such a shock comes in the form of a terrorist event (would it make political sense for Iran to try to embarrass an already-struggling President Trump?) or a financial crisis (October historically a time of market panics and crashes)? Finally, in the “Lightning Round”: the Chicago-born Pope employs a little divine intervention to boost the White Sox’s playoff chances; are a few comforting words by industry leaders the beginning of a more optimist AI “vibe shift”?; U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s criteria for joining America’s fighting forces (“beardos” and “weirdos” need not apply); Tucker Carlson’s curious take on Germany’s invasion of Poland; on the 57th anniversary of the first televised episode of Monty Python’s Flying Circus, the question of what happened to the longstanding tradition of British satire and comedy (our resident Boomers recalling a few of their favorite Python skits that most  Gen-Zers probably won’t understand or appreciate).

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America’s complicated relationship with China doesn’t lack for subplots – tariffs, territorial designs, human rights and espionage. But does the superpowers’ Cold War-like competition over artificial intelligence supersede all other U.S.-Sino concerns? On the eve of the year’s second Trump-Xi summit, Hoover fellow Eyck Freymann discusses the state of the superpowers’ rivalry and the possibility of a Chinese move on Taiwan in the near future (Freymann being the author of 2026’s Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, envisions an “all-domain pressure campaign” that slowly strangles the island nation). After that: Sir Niall recounts his recent visit to Kyiv (his fifth time in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion) and the odds of Vladimir Putin finding an “off-ramp” after a 55-month war of attrition (or, with his back to the wall, will Russia’s leader opt instead for a modern-day “Ludendorff Offensive”?). Finally, the fellows weigh in on the Fed’s recent rate increase, President Trump stepping up America’s strategic footprints in Greenland and Poland, plus what the 1619 Project’s Nikole Hanna-Jones’ mea culpa for purposely placing her daughter in a low-performing public school – the daughter now struggling with high-school academics – says about the state of education in America (and showcasing one’s offspring in the pages of The New York Times).

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The rubber meets the road in California this fall when a proposed one-time 5% tax on the state’s billionaire class – wealth taxes being a longtime progressive hobby horse – faces a public vote in the form of Proposition 40. Joshua Rauh, the Hoover Institution’s George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in economics and author of a data analysis of Prop 40’s fiscal and economic impacts, explains why the measure would be a “disaster” if enacted and whether the policy battle marks the beginning of more public engagement on the part of the wealthiest Californians or instead will speed up their exodus from the Golden State. After that: the fellows reflect on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on America – where they were that fateful day and 9/11’s legacy as it pertains to the war on terror, social divides and global alliances (if a similar attack happened today, would Vladimir Putin still be the first world leader to offer assistance to the American president?). Finally, in the “Lightning Round”: the pros and cons of an ascendant world senior population; the merits of “financial engineering” as governments spend and borrow more; disorder in the ranks as more of America’s military leaders part ways with the Pentagon; young conservatives’ “Nixonmaxxing” (and revising presidential history).

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On the latest GoodFellows: Is economic strangulation the key to achieving Iranian cooperation, or another misstep in the Persian Gulf? Is a sequel to “Woke 1” in the works? And does playing the race card in the aftermath of a former Cambridge University professor's suicide make his death even more tragic – and distract from another tragedy: declining academic tragedy?

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Jay Bhattacharya returns to GoodFellows—now as NIH director and acting CDC director—for a candid conversation on what COVID got wrong, why science needs a replication revolution, and how to restore public trust. Jay takes on the legacy of lockdowns, school closures, Fauci, gain-of-function research, China, AI-enabled biosecurity risks, vaccine questions, and the fight to make scientific dissent possible again.

Then: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, AI guardrails, democratic socialism, and what Homer can still teach us about war.

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After a productive first 100 days after returning to office, President Trump has since hit a rough patch – stubborn inflation (despite an otherwise powerhouse economy), an unpopular war with Iran, setbacks at the Supreme Court, plus growing dissent among congressional Republicans as his party faces the distinct possibility of losing one or both chambers of Congress in November. Has the ever-impulsive, risk-taking Trump lost his political Midas touch, or is he simply yet another president befuddled by a second-term jinx (not to mention a disgruntled electorate)? If Trump is sorely in need of a “win”, will it come on the domestic front or abroad (spoiler alert: look to Cuba)? After that, the fellows discuss whether it was fair play for the American president to intervene in World Cup officiating and the International Olympic Committee to allow Russian athlete to compete for Mother Russia in the 2028 Games, if the war in Ukraine is anywhere close to a tipping point, whether futbol is in fact an expression of socialist convictions (or so New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani believes), and the policy smarts (or a lack thereof) of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ call for a sovereign wealth on AI companies’ stock and how those firms should be addressing the industry’s image problem (the fellows playfully disagreeing on using AI to cheat on schoolwork). 

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On paper, it was a mismatch: a fledgling republic seeking freedom from the world’s mightiest empire. And yet the American Revolution ended with the upstart colonists’ victory over the mighty British military. Rick Atkinson, a military historian and author of a “Revolutionary Trilogy” on the fight for America’s independence, discusses the military tactics, geopolitical shifts, and economic conditions that factored into the war’s outcome. After that, the fellows discuss why serving as the British prime minister has become a game of musical chairs and how Labour lost its way, as well as the rise of “democratic socialism” and the appeal of class warfare and expansive government in the US – most notably, a California ballot initiative that imposes a “wealth tax” on the state’s billionaires.  Finally, in the “lighting round”, John's thoughts on the passing of former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan; H.R.’s take on the Pentagon putting its generals out to pasture; and Niall reflecting on European World Cup fans descending upon the US, only to discover a land of abundance (i.e., plenty of ranch dressing even if there’s not enough beer to go around).

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As the US and Iran prepare to sign a memorandum of understanding halting hostilities in the Middle East, will the agreement hold up for long given fundamental differences over Iran’s nuclear ambitions (another 60 days of negotiating), its funding of terrorist proxies across the region, plus Israel’s actions in Lebanon? If he succeeds in putting Iran in the rear-view window, does President Trump turn his attention to brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine (that war now approaching four years and four months of fighting) as well as ending Cuba’s communist dictatorship? Finally, speaking of invasions, GoodFellows’ resident Scotsman explains the joy of his countrymen’s “Tartan Army” coming to Boston – thousands of kilt-wearing lads and lasses singing, marching and pub-crawling their way through Beantown whilst rooting on a Scottish national team making its first World Cup appearance in this century. 

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In a special “mailbag” episode, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer audience questions. Among the topics (after a brief opening segment devoted to the latest in the Iran-US impasse – aka, “Schrödinger’s ceasefire”): who are today’s great leaders; is “the American experiment” doomed, as some intellectuals posit; China’s move to gold from dollar-denominated securities; the futures of the European Union and the UK’s Reform movement; North Korea’s relative silence; the cooled-down rhetoric of climate change; whether our PhD-wielding historians bother with televised historical dramas; thoughts on gentlemen-scholars’ sartorial style (“buy [clothes] when you’re a graduate student and wear them until they fall apart”); plus managerial lessons to be drawn from the recent successes of Sir Niall’s beloved Arsenal football club. 

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Is it time to rethink the configuration of the US Supreme Court – not nine justices divided along lockstep ideological lines, but three groups of three justices, each clique with a different approach to jurisprudence? So argues court watcher and legal analyst Sarah Isgur, who discusses her new book, Last Branch Standing: A Potentially Surprising, Occasionally Witty Journey Inside Today's Supreme Court, and explains where the justices stand on a series of contentious issues (“birthright citizenship”, the administrative state, abortion, the court’s relationship with an antagonistic president on matters like tariffs and executive authority, plus maintaining a semblance of impartiality in a polarized Washington). After that: the three fellows discuss what’s next in Iran with peace negotiations seemingly at an impasse, what to expect from this week’s US-China summit in Beijing, plus what challenges lie ahead for Hoover fellow Kevin Warsh as he takes over as the Federal Reserve’s new chair. 

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