DRUNKENOMICS

Due to all the requests from our econholics & drinkonimists in our discord, we've finally made an episode on option trading. In this presentation, we predominantly cover single leg option strategies like long/short single calls or puts, why they exist, and even take a dive into option greeks. Next week, we're gonna take a deeper dive into complex (multi-leg) option strategies, such as, debit/credit spreads, diagonals/calendars, straddles/strangles, and even condors/butterflys. It is a confusing concept to grasp, so if you have any questions, feel free to hit us up on...

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Yes, we made a ton of Metallica references in this presentation in honor of the best news of the year: Metallica is coming out with a new album and going on another world tour. Additionally, nearly offsetting this fantastic news is the possibility of a railroad strike, protest outbreaks in China, and language of a premature Fed pivot. Also, the credit bubble seems to only be expanding as savings rates are plummeting while credit card debt is soaring. Hopefully it all ends well like the Master of Puppets album.

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Happy Thanksgiving folks! Quick episode here on the Holiday week about recent signals from the Federal Reserve. Apparently they're flirting with the idea of pivoting and it's causing all kinds of upheavals. I know there's a lot to be thankful for, but don't you also wish we can go back to the days when the markets looked at something other than just the Fed?

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Sorry if this affected you in anyway, but we have stumbled across our next 5-letter f-word once again. This time, it's Sam Bankman-Fried. Additionally, inflation numbers came out and shocked the markets in a good way...twice. So much so, that certain Fed governors are really flirting with the idea of pivoting. Why? Well, beats me, but if you really wanna know how we feel, just pour yourself a stiff one in listen.

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But really, what we mean by that is we've elected our way into a political gridlock; which can be a good thing, but can also be a detriment. Granted, election results are still technically up in the air, but it's pretty safe to assume (lol) that the senate is going to be split 50/50; aka gridlock. In these scenarios, the rule book doesn't seem to ever change, since nothing really gets passed through the Legislative branch. In some cases, it can provide a decent level of certainty, but other times, people are desperate for change/improvement...or both. 

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Three quarters later, we’re still not making progress towards the pipe dream of a soft landing. Inflation has shown no real signs of slowing down; yet GDP numbers and the labor market still suggests the Fed is no where near the ‘pivot’ point. I’m at the point where I’m honestly wondering if achieving the terminal inflation rate of 2% is even possible. Also, the same problems persist in Europe, and they’re even further behind the U.S.

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Apologies for all the classic punk rock references...this week goes to the song 'Clampdown' by The Clash from their masterpiece/genius album "London Calling." But a huge political shake up took place in the U.K. with the entrance of Rishi Sunak as their new Prime Minister. This announcement alone brought stability to the GBP and the English GILTs. Conversely, a whole new leadership lineup took place in China, making Xi JinPing even more powerful than Mao Zedong. Unlike news from the U.K., markets reacted mournfully.

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Greetings all, hope you had a better week than the UK. The battle between saving pensions vs. saving the Pound-Sterling lingers on as the Minister of Finance was sacked; and the new plan proposed: pretend the proposed plan a few weeks ago by Liz Truss never happened. Meanwhile, here in the States, the soft landing is almost certainly out of the question as Bloomberg reported a 100% chance of a recession in the next 6-9 months. Drink 'em if you got 'em I guess.

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A 30-year fixed mortgages is now hovering around 7%; more than twice what it was a year ago. But because of compound interest, the cost of taking on a mortgage is through the roof (pun intended). Credit spreads have widened as lenders weigh interest rate, inflation, and duration risk; but mortgage lenders seem to be the most spooked in this environment. So...will there be a correction in the housing market in the near future?

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The Bank of England currently is facing a dilemma where they have to pretty much choose between crushing their government bonds (GILTs) or UK pension plans. To make things worse, OPEC+ has made the condescending decision to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day; which will likely cause oil prices to shoot up. However, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel? Sorry for being optimistic...

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RIP Flynn Goldwater & Stay Drunkenomical!