DRUNKENOMICS

What do you call the economic cycle that shows signs of pre-recession and recession at the same time? Seriously, what do you call it? Also, the Pound-Sterling is almost at parity with the US dollar, Italy has a new Prime Minister, Chinese Yuan has completely collapsed, and where the fuck is President Xi??

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Well, the nearly free liquidity the last decade has really hit a wall. The Fed announced this week that they are raising the Fed Funds Rate another 75 basis points and expressed their intention to repeat this hike two more times by year end. The 2-year yield has surpassed 4%, which will force investors to reconsider the risk premium for bonds and equities. And not to mention, there's a $8.7 trillion Fed balance sheet that needs to be unloaded.

Cheers,

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The Fed chair has said the word 'pain' during a presser on Friday, leading to a sharp decline in equities. Strangely enough, the bond market had little to no reaction. Why? Because it's been the same narrative for months. Also, big news on the student loan front. Listen for a breakdown of some of the pros and cons of it's implication.

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The US Dollar and Euro have hit parity once again and social media has made a parody out of it. For Americans, it may seem like having a strong currency index is great for our economy; but it what does this actually do for the import and export markets? I'll give you a hint, it has something to do with how big tech adjusted their year-end guidance for the rest of this year.

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The housing market is starting to show signs of cooling down, but will it actually face a crash or correction? There are plenty of catalysts on both sides of the argument worth drinking to. Additionally, could the stock market consolidation in the last few weeks be caused by the new excise tax that begins in the new year? I'm gonna need another drink for this one too.

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So the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 8.5% might be suggesting that inflation may have plateaued. So from the Fed's perspective, maybe 75 basis points from the last couple meetings is actually working. Or maybe just bureaucratic optimism of the Inflation Reduction Act passing has caused inflation to retreat. Either way, 8.5% inflation is still atrocious. On the bright side, we can always raise interest rates or pass more bills.

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GDP numbers came out this morning although we recorded the night before. It's funny how the NBER has a different definition of a recession than what we are all technically used to; which is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And as of this morning, we officially got it. It may just be me, but it sure does look like, walk like, and quack like a duck (no offense to ducks).

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Hey, hope this finds you well because the farmer protests in Europe have extended into Spain and Italy. Not to mention, the Italian government has fallen apart, the European Central Bank seems stuck, and The People's Republic of China (ironic name, I know) have sent tanks to protect their banks from protestors. We may need more whiskey than usual to get through this presentation.

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First off, sorry about the audio. We were having a tough time connecting the mic. However, we did have a nice dram of whiskey over the Dutch farming protests that spilled into a bunch of other protests. We also couldn't help but mention the immaculate timing of these protests in the midst of a global food shortage.

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There are normally 4 different stages of a bear market cycle: Recognition, Initial sell-off/panic, dead-cat bounce/consolidation, then capitulation. In our humble opinion, we are currently in the midst of stage 3, waiting for the catalyst for capitulation. So how will we know when we're in stage 4? Listen to find out. We had to answer some questions off the bat so our answers to that question really come in towards the end.

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