DRUNKENOMICS

Bad dad-joke, I know. Almost as bad as how high real estate prices are in this economy. But even with the average 30-yr mortgage above 5%, an unwinding of $35 billion in MBS's, and a rising interest rate environment, will the housing market cool down?

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Stay Drunkenomical y'all & happy 4/20!

50% of Americans now feel a recession will fall upon us in the the 12-24 months; which brings us to the spirit that is not whiskey. Instead, it brings us to the animal spirits which can be a leading indicator of an imminent recession. So what does the term "animal spirits" even mean?

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If there was a bird hunt to find a single dove among the members of the FOMC, no one would score. It seems like all the hawks have gobbled them up. So why not have a drink while everyone shifts to a more hawkish outlook and observe through whiskey glasses as the Fed winds down their colossal balance sheet. 

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Had to keep this week short as we drank to the rock legend, Taylor Hawkins. Because of this, liquidity (aka whiskey) was flowing which made it all the more fitting to talk about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and how it contrasts with the old Keysian school of thought. Also, happy (or sad) yield curve inversion week!

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Imagine having absolutely nothing to hide and actually enjoying the audit process. Firms like Evergrande really need to think outside the box to have that kind of imaginative motor. Nonetheless, every public company is required by law to have an 'independent' company come in and perform an external audit. For what reason? Pour yourself a dram & find out.

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HAPPY ST. PATTY'S WEEK EVERYONE! Hope you're still with after being relentlessly click-baited by the FOMC. It's almost like they're trying to take the attention away from the geopolitical tensions in Europe (& elsewhere) and commodity markets. 

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Nickel futures shot up 90% on Monday in a matter of minutes. On top of that, several other commodities, such as aluminum, palladium, and zinc, also hit all time highs; while wheat futures breached 14-year highs. According to Contango theory, commodity futures in a normal market are more expensive than spot prices. But too bad we're in backwardation.

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Ever been cut off at a bar before? I'd imagine it's a lot like being sanctioned. Speaking of which, Russia's been sanctioned by pretty much the entire world in the hopes that the economic squeeze causes Putin to have a change of heart. Like anything else, we'll see what happens.

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First off, happy valentines day to everyone else receiving mixed signals. The FOMC keeps on toying with my emotions too so I sympathize with you. And that giant country in Eastern Europe? Them and Ukraine also keep sending me mixed signals, which in turn sends mixed signals to the energy markets. Maybe I just need to reach for the whiskey bottle & thicken my skin.

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Think of it this way, you can just have a dram of rye on the rocks, or you can have a post-M&A rye on the rocks; some mixologists would call that a Manhattan or an Old Fashioned. But when it comes to M&A, why do they happen? What's the motive? And how does it work logistically? 

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Stay Drunkenomical y'all!